Take the following hand - unknown limps from CO, I raise from BB, flop trips

BTN: $5.00
Hero (SB): $5.02
BB: $4.93
UTG: $5.20
UTG+1: $11.39
MP: $6.31
MP+1: $5.00
LP: $6.57
CO: $3.01

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has 2 2

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.05, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) T 6 2
Hero bets $0.45, CO calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.55, 2 players) 3
Hero ??

If I were to check at this point, villain could easily bluff me off my hand with a 2/3+ bet. I'm thinking perhaps a 1/2 pot cbet may be the best option as not only would this prevent me being bluffed off but gives a slim chance for the board to pair. If he has a flush he would likely raise and I will just have to deal with the fact I have no notes on him to tell if I can continue and fold. I am completely lost at a blank river however, would a villain ever call the turn if he hit his flush? If not, then barrel/shove but still.

While i'm at it, if this situation arises IP i'm pretty sure I would barrel the turn if checked to and fold to a raise without any further notes

Thoughts and comments appreciated!

You have to bet, there is no doubt about that, imo.

The more interesting thing is when you are OOP and don't have the lead. That can range pretty widely then, and I don't know enough about NL to really say.

Flushes are only a part of his range. Given how shortstacked (and bad) he is bet more otf (pot) and shove turn (small overbet, but hey! it's NL ).

Will you always fold if you check and he bets? He doesn't always have the flush - and in fact he has the flush the same percentage of time whether you bet or check. If you are willing to bet 1/2 pot, then you really shouldn't be folding to a 2/3 pot bet. Against some aggressive opponents you can get more money out of them by check/calling than by betting. If he does have the flush you still have the redraw, and you have exercised good pot control. If he doesn't have it, you risk giving him a free card, but also give him the opportunity to bluff off his chips.

This but also we can pot control if we bet smaller they usually raise smaller with the flush, if we are deep enough we can calculate if we get 20% IO

I like to check/call because they usually can't bomb it hard enough to deny me my Equity+IO

The river would be intresting though 4/5 times we won't have a FH
Whatdya think

I'd check/fold w/o FH most of the time I'd prefer, unless villain is really really aggresive and attacking a lot of wet boards and bluffcatch
If villain is kind of timid <2AF we won't have the best hand most of times


Also we will never be OOP without the lead in a FD situation with set (why would we check/call the flop with a set on a wet board?)

I would bet the turn again and shove any non-heart river. Lots of villains have failed to valuetown me because they got scared of a flush.

Also, you flopped a set, not trips. Trips is when you have one card and the board has a pair of the same value. The distinction matters because sets are better than trips - you don't have kicker trouble and you don't need to worry that the other guy has a boat.

If you ever c/f here then quit poker imo.

Do you imply they are folding their sets/flushes here? I'm not sure what you mean?? Can you explain?

What Mr Beer said. I don't know why you see two hearts on the flop and automatically think that villain must have a flush when the third come on turn. Villain limped in pre, he can definitely have any ten or random pocket pair here. Villains who take this passive line pre can probably have any 6 or gutshot too.

EDIT:

On turn he can also have the ace, king, queen or even jack of hearts (combined with the ten or something), and you definitely want him to pay to see a river. You really have to bet and shove any non-heart river, just like Mr Beer said.

You forget some things Soltan

#1 the opposite is quite true for villain too, if he sees 3 hearts and you bet he'll think oh he has the flush and not oh I still have a gutshot for my straight on a 3flush board it's probably good

#2 if he's seeing 3 flush on the board, how likely is he going to call bets with a random ten or with a random pair? You really think we can go for 3 streets of value on a 3flush board with a set ?

Well as the hand actually went, I didnt think he had a flush :P

Barreled the turn, got raised and spaz called against 98hh, then slowly cried myself to sleep.

Yeah I like to stack the flushes that can't fold the pairing river cards, it's esp. nasty to check back the turn and all FD WILL bet it, and since we can call cheap (usually 1/2 pot or so we're getting 3:1 on a call (and we need 4:1 actually but we have IO of another bet on the river (which is likely, + the opportunity to check/raise pairing rivers and stack them or donkshove rivers)

Usually in the micros you can easily figure out their hand, if they raise your cbet on a 3flush board they usually have the flush, they almost never bluffraise esp. wet boards on turns

I was just about to edit in that you might want to slow down on the river, depending on the villain. It's all very dependent on the villain, really, so maybe this wasn't as obvious as I initially thought.

But you have to go with whatever reads you have, and right now this guy limped in and called a big raise pre. Tells me he's a loose passive fish, who definitely have more hands in his range than flushes and sets.

EDIT:

Frosty: Thing is, this kind of villain is not going to bluff very often. Now that we can see the results, bet/fold seems like the best line, if we not bet bigger on both flop and turn.

b/f was my first instinct when reviewing the hand, I forgot the first rule of the micros (at least 5NL), people rarely bluff! I can see both points of view but I think I would need a read to shove a c/r.

Thanks for the help

Yes if we just go by the hand we can identify CO as a big fish because of 3 things

#1 Stack Size, he's ~60bb so he's not a professional shortstacker, if he has an edge why wouldn't he want 100bb

#2 limp CO wheras a bet could easily have taken down the pot preflop, even as small as 2.2bb

#3 he's limp/calling a big raise

So he's a big fish,

But now lets think about the flop

What kind of range does he call the flop with? Tx, 6x (2 is unlikely as we have 22 and there is one on the flop) Flush Draws and maybe overcards (but seeing as we bet big pre and big on the flop he probably puts us on either big cards or medium-big pairs)

I don't think I'm going to see many gutshot draws here after we're showing so much strength

Now let's take a look at the turn, it's a 3h that completes a 45 straight draw and the flush draw.

Now we can choose either to bet or to check, if we bet, what kinds of hands will he still call after we bet big pre bet big flop and bet big on the turn? Overcards will most likely fold, 6x hands won't be happy, Tx hands might call, all flushes will raise, 1cardtoflush draws might call

Now if we weight his hands by preflop, there will be a ton more suited hands in his limping range than nonsuited, and a lot more hh hands than Tx, 6x hands

So if he calls the flop bet his most likely hand is a FD

And if we bet the turn we want worse hands to call but there are almost none that might call a bet

If we get raised we're denying us the correct pot odds to draw a fullhouse most of the time

But think about what you've said, he is a passive fish, this kind of villain is not going to bluff very often.

Now think about it what happens if we check the turn? As you say he does not bluff so we can safely bet ANY non-hearth Rivers with the best hand, because he checks his weak hands on the turn and never bluffs
If he bets we can safely draw to the FH and fold any nonfh hand on the river