Preflop suited connectors and odds
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 181
As you can see, I don't post here much so if I'm in the wrong place please move me.
This situation comes up a lot and I'm always at a loss as to handle it so I thought I would consult with the experts.
The situation is pretty simple.
Live 1/3 game
9 handed
everybody has 150+ bb
you're in late position with 67dd
Not alot of raising and reraising preflop
The Action
UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
MP calls ($7)
MP+1 calls ($10)
YOU calls ($13)
folds to button
btn raises to 18 ($31)
sb folds
bb calls ($49)
MP folds
MP+1 calls ($64)
YOU ???
If I need to add anything let me know. I'm really interested in how you approach this decision. Do you base it solely on pot odds or are there other considerations.
Thanks in advance for the help.
should be called sevenfour
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 74,628
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 4
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,058
Yup - this is a call, especially (1) with the raiser being on the button, and (2) with no one left to reraise further after you act
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 25,839
If NLHE was just about pf pot odds, then it would be an easy game. It isn't an easy game.
When playing an implied odds hand like 76s, you need a couple of things going for you. First, it is better to be acting behind the pfr, not ahead of him. You're going to have to check before he acts if aren't behind. That loses one street of value if he checks too.
Second, you want to know how the pfr feels about TPTK or an OP. If they don't feel it is worthy of 3 streets of betting, it will be hard to get paid off.
Third, you want to know if you can make enough money when you hit to make up for all the times you miss, plus all the times you hit but nobody will pay you off. You have roughly a 5% chance of hitting 2 pair or better on the flop. Sure you get a FD possibility about 10% of the time (and another 10% of a SD). But the FD has little value. Almost no table is going to give you direct odds to call you FD and once it hits, nobody will pay you off. If there is someone throwing a lot of money in the pot, you're likely to be drawing dead.
So the absolute minimum to break even on calling is to win 15*20 - 64 or 236. The good news is that the pfr has that amount in his stack. The bad news is we're out of position to him and we need him to put in over 1/2 of his stack to pay us with a weaker hand, most likely TP. Long term, this is a marginal call. As a TAG, you need to play some hands that are close to break even so people know you can have something other than AK or AA pf. You wouldn't be a LAG in this situation because 76s would be a good raising hand the first time around.
But as a marginal call, folding isn't a bad idea. If I was at the table for say an hour or so and still didn't know how the villain would treat TPTK, I'd lean towards folding because it is likely I'm more of a beginner and my post flop skills weren't good.