I wanted to ask about this poker rule i have written down in my notebook. Do you agree with it?

If pot odds numbers are bigger than pot equity numbers, then you should call, but if equity numbers are bigger than pot odds, you shouldn't call


POT ODDS

Lets say the pot is $100
opponent bets $50
We have to call $50 to win $150

We are getting 3:1

flop K9Q6

our hand A5


POT EQUITY

Flush draw give us 18% chance to win

5:1

If we follow the rule we shouldn't make the call.



I think im always calling with FD if im getting atleast 3:1 odds. Since i don't use this poker rule i just wanted to know if its wrong or not.

u don't have a flush draw u just have ace high

At best, OP, you have runner runner flush draws and runner runner straight draws. An optimistic estimate here would put you at about 5% to win on those, and I would not even think about being on a pair draw here because your ace is terrible.

sorry my bad, just edited the post ty for telling me

HUH ? he has 2 diamonds in his hand and two on the flop board He Indeed has a flush draw.
To the OP you have two cards yet to come your prob of hitting the flush is a lot closer to 33% then it is to 18%

Ok, so we're on the TURN, now, not the flop. On a pure flush draw, by the rule of 2 and 4, with 1 street to come, yes, we're at roughly 18% to win. That is the equivalent of 1 in 5, but your subsequent calculation is wrong.

A 1 in 5 chance to win does not require 5:1 pot odds, it requires 4:1 pot odds. Why? Because you'll win back the money you put in, as well. Every time you make this bet you put $1 in the pot. When there is $4 in the pot, and you make the bet, you put the $1 in the pot, making it $5, so if you win, you get back $5, $4 of which is profit.

So 1 time out of 5 you'll get 4 profit, and 4 times out of 5 you'll lose 1 for -1 profit. 4x-1 = -4, which balances with the +4 profit, so the bet is good.

ALL THAT SAID:
Pot $100, facing a bet of $50, makes pot $150. You are being offered 3:1 here, you need the pot to be at least $200, so yes, you fold.

Grunching is bad, m'kay?

He edited the post. His original post did not include the turn.

AND, gary, you're way off even if he did put 2 diamonds on the flop, which he didn't.

On the flop, you should only use 4% per out if you are going to see the turn AND the river for one bet. Otherwise you use 2%, per street.

Say the flop had 2 diamonds, but you know that you're not going to see the river for free. If the turn doesn't bring that diamond, then there WILL be betting on the turn.

In which case, you use 18% to calculate odds for the turn, and 18% again to calculate odds for the river. You would still have to fold the flop when facing $50 into a $100 pot.

ty for explaining

There wasn't fd at the beginning. I forget to put second diamond on board that is why I edited post....

In The ORGINAL Post (which i replied to)
He Had TWO diamonds on the Flop And the Turn was yet to come.
and With ONLY One card to come the Yes he would be about 18% to hit his flush

OP ... from a pure math perspective a smart V will 'always' make it very difficult for you to call, especially on the Turn. So keeping that in mind we also need to consider if 'only' our Ace is good as well and 'will our opponent pay us anything more if we hit either one?'. This comes down to your impression of the V's style.

You don't need to collect very much on the River to 'make up' for the short fall in the math on the Turn. These are implied odds that can be considered. What if your V has QdJd and 4d hits the River? You get his stack.

I don't want you to get caught up in justifying all your 'bad' poker math decisions as implied odds decisions but I also want to make sure that you consider more factors than just the math as you go along. GL

I replied to the original post. He did not have 2 diamonds on the flop. That's why both myself and the person prior to me pointed out that he did not have a flush draw. You also didn't reply to the original post. You replied to someone's reply to the original post. By the time you replied, it had been 5 minutes since OP edited his post.

But that's not the real issue.

The real issue is that you think that on the flop he should use 36%. He should not. Not unless it's an all-in situation. The rule of 2 and 4 is not "use 4 on the flop, use 2 on the turn" it's "use 4 if you are going to see the turn and river without putting any more money in, otherwise use 2 on both streets".

#1 everyone just ignore gary, it works much better that way

#2 If you're going to treat draws (especially nut draws) as a call or fold then you're probably not going to win regardless.

You really want to be betting or raising in spots where you can credibly have a good hand (because you often do) and people will fold some percentage. That way you can win the pot in two ways. Even if you bet/raise all of your flush draws, and I'm not saying you should perse, you don't flop a flush draw that often so they're great to balance with two pairs/sets/straights. That way villain has to decide whether you have a really strong hand or you have a hand that can still easily make a hand even if he decides you're on a draw.

Of course you need to recognize when checking, betting, raising or calling is the best plan but be aware that it isn't a binary decision between calling or folding.

Also as mentioned there are implied odds which combined with fold equity create just that little bit extra on the next street and it's not only the pot that you're calling for. If they call your bets on the river 100% of the time you get great implied odds, if they fold 100% then your bluffs win the pot a lot so you gain back some of your investment. Anything in between (which is more likely) and you can probably count an extra 30% of the pot on the river. For example the bet is $50 on the turn and you call, you're getting 3:1 and the pot is $200 on the river. I think you can easily average another $70 (which is just 1/3 pot bet) by either bluffing or getting paid, so your odds are now much more like 4.4:1 which is sufficient if you're thinking about call/fold.

That "rule" is basically correct. It might help you to think of it in the following terms:

Pot odds are the ratio of how much you win : how much it costs to play.
Hand odds are the ratio of how often you win : how often you lose.

It's like with betting on a horse. If the bookie will pay 3 to 1, but you think the horse will win more often than one time for every three defeats (i.e. it wins more than one time in four), you should place the bet.

But poker is more complicated than that. We have implied odds, potentially free cards or free showdowns, profitable floats/bluffs etc.

P.S. Search this forum for mathenoobics. The series of posts will explain all the basic math concepts you need to know.

ty guys

9 outs and halve the overcard outs so 10 or 11 outs x2 is 22-24% equity when 25% equity is needed. If it's an all in then we must fold. If not then you can call