Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > General Poker Discussion > Beginners Questions

Notices

Beginners Questions Poker beginner ? Ask your (possibly) naive question here and our community will attempt to help you.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-01-2012, 01:38 AM   #1
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 76
Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

So, Holdem manager shows what the standard deviation over a given example is. Is it possible to reduce this number, without affecting your winrate?
Cometishian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2012, 07:28 AM   #2
old hand
 
Suzukishosan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: ROW
Posts: 1,303
Re: Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

yeh, if you find yourself in a spot where say the EV of calling an all in pre flop and folding an all in pre flop is the about the same then taking the folding route will reduce your SD.

Imo there's a lot to be said for this especially if you're prone to tilt or practice aggressive bankroll management
Suzukishosan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2012, 09:15 AM   #3
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DiamondDog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: on top of Manhattan Chase
Posts: 7,370
Re: Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

If you really want to reduce SD, only get it in with the nuts.

But it's going to drastically lower your win rate.

We can all make money when we have the nuts, but the better the player, the more they're extracting from other spots. Really good players will still get value from super thin edges (in fact, that's pretty much a definition of 'skilled' - how marginal the spot has to be before you stop getting value from it.)

But adding those marginal spots is going to increase your SD.

Variance is the price you pay for taking their money in the long run.
DiamondDog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2012, 09:20 AM   #4
Pooh-Bah
 
gothninja's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Sitting out
Posts: 4,425
Re: Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DiamondDog View Post
If you really want to reduce SD, only get it in with the nuts.
If you really want to reduce SD, don't play poker. That may reduce or increase your winrate, depending how good you are.
gothninja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2012, 07:58 PM   #5
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 76
Re: Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DiamondDog View Post
If you really want to reduce SD, only get it in with the nuts.

But it's going to drastically lower your win rate.

We can all make money when we have the nuts, but the better the player, the more they're extracting from other spots. Really good players will still get value from super thin edges (in fact, that's pretty much a definition of 'skilled' - how marginal the spot has to be before you stop getting value from it.)

But adding those marginal spots is going to increase your SD.

Variance is the price you pay for taking their money in the long run.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gothninja View Post
If you really want to reduce SD, don't play poker. That may reduce or increase your winrate, depending how good you are.
So your answer to the op is no or are you just trolling?
Cometishian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2012, 08:03 PM   #6
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Wow, such opinions
Posts: 4,180
Re: Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

OP, the relationship between winrate and std dev is pretty complex so there's not an easy way to reduce one without reducing the other.
zumby is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2012, 02:17 AM   #7
banned
 
Mr Beer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 5,973
Re: Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cometishian View Post
So your answer to the op is no or are you just trolling?
He's saying that variance is part of the game and reducing variance merely for the sake of doing so is not productive...essentially you are not asking the right question.
Mr Beer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2012, 04:28 AM   #8
Pooh-Bah
 
gothninja's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Sitting out
Posts: 4,425
Re: Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cometishian View Post
So your answer to the op is no or are you just trolling?
The best answer itt is the one that tells you to reduce the number of coin flip situations you go for. But it has to be a true either-way decision to really have no effect on variance/standard deviation.

Poker is a game of variance. Most of your decisions will be based on uncertainty, so will include variance by definition. DD was saying that playing only the nuts is low variance, and I added that not playing is lowest variance - both these are reducing the game to certain decisions, removing uncertainty, and removing variance.

Your primary aim in poker is to increase your edge. If you try instead to reduce your variance, you will be missing out on a lot of profit, so this will affect your winrate.
gothninja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2012, 05:28 AM   #9
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, UK
Posts: 2,046
Re: Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

Can someone tell us where this particular stat is located within HEM 2? I cant seem to find it anywhere in the normal stats section for the reports?

Thanks

EDIT: Ignore. Its refered too as Std Deviation in bb in HEM
GutshotDan92 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2012, 07:58 AM   #10
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,845
Re: Is it possible to reduce your standard deviation...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cometishian View Post
So, Holdem manager shows what the standard deviation over a given example is. Is it possible to reduce this number, without affecting your winrate?
No. The only way to reduce variance without affecting the winrate is to chose the lower variance play when both choices have the same expected value. But most people already do this.
SquirrelsUnite is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off




All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:38 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive