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quick math question

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06-02-2012 , 07:06 AM

Gracias

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 624

Trying to figure out a break even point.

MP: $10.55 (105.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $12.86 (128.6 bb)

SB and BB post 5c, 10c and fold pre.

Preflop: Hero is CO with T

UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1

I want to know how to calculate what percentage of the time villain needs to fold to start making this profitable. Off the top of my head i thought it was around 70% so i played around on excel.

Be point = 1- (pot/ (pot+our raise)
= 1- (45/1.45)
=69%

Is that correct and my formula right?

Thanks in advance.

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06-02-2012 , 08:26 AM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

If you make a bet of B into a pot of P, then the required fold equity for breakeven, given that you have no card equity is

Fe = B/(P + B).

This is equivalent to your equation.

However, ATo will have some equity, say Eq. The more general equation is

Fe = - EVcall / (P –Evcall),

where

EVcall = Eq * (P+2*B) - B.

Note that when card equity Eq = 0, you get the simpler equation, for then EVcall = -B. Also, if B is not an all-in bet, there will be further action, if villain calls, so a complete analysis would likely include implied odds.

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06-02-2012 , 08:30 AM

Gracias

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 624

Thank you.

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