I've been playing 5NL for a couple of weeks now, and I understand the concept of variance. However, when I look at my PT3 graph of EV it shows a huge decrease along with my recent downswing. I'm probably a losing player right now in the end by looking at this graph, but I don't understand how these EV calculations make any sense. I'm trying to learn but this is extremely frustrating for me because if my EV is really dropping this fast it's something I need to correct, but I don't understand how these plays are -EV.

Maybe I'm missing the concept?

Here is my overall EV graph:



Here is my EV graph from today:



For example, two hands that I played today, both show negative EV equal to the money that I lost (they are the two largest drops in the graph):


9 Players - .02/.05

MP1(Random range, first hand played against him)
Hero(SB)

Hero is dealt: AAo

3 folds, MP raises to 17, 3 folds, Hero raises to .29, BB folds, MP calls

(pot: .63) Flop: JK4 rainbow

Hero bets .40, MP raises to 1.63, Hero raises 3.55 all in, MP calls


Should I raise more PF and bet more flop?

When I look at the hand PT3 is showing that is a -EV move for both MP and myself. I really don't understand how this has a HUGE negative expected value for me (I did lose the hand on the river against KQo), especially at the micro stakes.



MP (58/33 over 12 hands)
Hero(btn)

Hero dealt AAo

2 folds, 1 call, MP raises to .15, 1 fold, Hero raises to .4, 2 folds, MP calls

(pot: .92) Flop: KQ8 rainbow

MP bets .15, Hero raises to 1, MP raises to 4.93 and is all in, Hero calls


Should I even be looking to fold AA here? the jump from .15 to all in is huge and very aggressive.

PT3 also showed this hand as negative EV equal to the money that I lost (he had QQ).


I honestly do not see what about these plays makes them negative EV. I am facing a huge downswing in my graph and the EV seems to follow my money so I would love to correct it. I've looked at my stats and the only apparent difference between before and after the drop is that I go to SD a few % more and have increased my aggression.

I would greatly appreciate and suggestions or insights to help me make sense of this.

What you're going through is called a down-swing. Poker may be a game of skill, but there's a whole heck of a lot of luck involved too. 6,000 hands is peanuts and meaningless in the grand scheme of things, though it may seem like a lot to you at this point. I don't have PT3 and don't know exactly what's going on with those graphs, but it's just using past data to make your expected value assumptions.

Lol, I know it's a downswing, and I admit that "Dramatic" may have been the wrong word.

I'm just confused by the EV graph. Maybe the graph isn't as meaningful as I would think? I tried searching on how the graph works but couldn't find what I was looking for.

I figured that the EV being negative should = bad decisions. It's frustrating for me because I can't see how some of these plays are -EV (not saying all my plays are perfect and +EV, of course) as I review them, but the graph is telling me they are.

Guess I'm giving the graph too much credit instead of actually focusing on the hands.

The EV graph shows your EV for your exact hand against their exact hand when the money went in. In the second example, AA vs QQQ is a huge underdog. If you can somehow manage to put him on exactly QQ, then yes, going all in is a bad decision. Being able to put someone on an exact hand being highly unlikely, you have to put them on a range, and compare your equity against that range to see if you made a good decision.

Makes a lot more sense now. thanks