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Old 02-07-2012, 10:16 AM   #1
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Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

Anyone ever feel like whenever they have the nuts, everybody else folds no matter how little you bet, but whenver you shove or otherwise bet big with a strong hand that isn't the nuts (non-nut flush, middle set, two pair etc.) someone shoves over the top of you with a better hand and you get fleeced.

I'm sure that's just poker like everything else, I'm just venting.
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Old 02-07-2012, 10:26 AM   #2
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

Variance, selective memory or tight ranges that your opponents have picked up on so they don't give you action. Maybe a little of all three.

Hard to say which it is since you haven't given information on your play style, hand examples, or the caliber of the opponents your facing.

Quote:
, everybody else folds no matter how little you bet, but whenver you shove or otherwise bet big with a strong hand that isn't the nuts (non-nut flush, middle set, two pair etc.) someone shoves over the top of you with a better hand and you get fleeced.
However this sounds grossly unbalanced to me. If you always bet small with the nuts and bet big with medium strength hands and your opponents know this... well it won't be hard to figure out what to do with top-pair will it?
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Old 02-07-2012, 10:28 AM   #3
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

well when you have the nuts its unlikely someone else also does and wants to get all their $ in. When you have a pretty strong hand and some1 else has the nuts they'll be happy to put their stack in against you.
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Old 02-07-2012, 11:13 AM   #4
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_bias
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Old 02-07-2012, 11:16 AM   #5
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

if you get all in on the flop with a set often enough, you will find that plenty of people are more than happy to pay you off with worse hands.
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Old 02-07-2012, 01:59 PM   #6
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

There are always sessions like this, or where ur AK just never hits, or ur PP never hits a set, but there are days when it all goes right too. Its all about losing least when we're behind and making most when we aren't. How u do that is listed in all the other threads on 2+2 (kinda)!
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Old 02-08-2012, 10:58 AM   #7
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

I also have the opposite happen, where I run a straight or a flush into a full house. I feel like I lose the most money with the 2nd best hand.

Now every time I take down a small pot with the nuts I think about how I really need my opponent to make 2nd best hand for a huge payday and I worry less about not getting paid off.
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Old 02-08-2012, 12:14 PM   #8
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

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Originally Posted by DavidZuidema View Post
I also have the opposite happen, where I run a straight or a flush into a full house. I feel like I lose the most money with the 2nd best hand.

Now every time I take down a small pot with the nuts I think about how I really need my opponent to make 2nd best hand for a huge payday and I worry less about not getting paid off.
If you find that your straights and flushes bump into FHs a lot more often than the other way around over a large sample, then it is probably because you don't know how to lay down your hand when you really should, while your opponents do know how to use the fold button.
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Old 02-08-2012, 06:35 PM   #9
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan View Post
Anyone ever feel like whenever they have the nuts, everybody else folds no matter how little you bet,
it depends on how well concealed your nuts is, and if villains hit anything of the board.

oh yeah, and if you think that's always the case, you need to play moar hands.
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Old 02-08-2012, 06:46 PM   #10
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

If you always bet tiny when you have the nuts but bet big when you have a weaker hand or bluff then you have 2 big problems:
1) you are telegraphing to your opponent what hand you have
2) you are on a fast path to bustoville. NLTAP addresses this point very well, you will consistently make the least when you are ahead and lose the most when behind. Also in EV terms just because you get called more often does not mean you are making the most. If you have a 0.5 chance of getting called when betting 1/4 pot with the nuts or a 0.1 chance of getting called when betting 2x pot with the nuts you will make significantly more over the long term by betting 2x pot even though you get called 1/5 the time you got called with your tiny bet. Don't just bet to get called, work out what will make the most.
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Old 02-08-2012, 09:51 PM   #11
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

Assuming we play a reasonable range, if we plan to open pre and then follow with a c-bet, by the time those 2 actions have completed, the villain has usually folded. We don't really remember the 1,000 times this happens but we do tend to remember flopping the nuts that 1 time because that happens rarely.

Cliffs: get over it.
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Old 02-08-2012, 10:10 PM   #12
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

One of the reasons why your bets often don't get called when you have the nuts is that it's kind of hard for a villain to have a decent hand if you have a monster. If you have a set of kings, villain is unlikely to have the case king, so you prefer him to be on a draw that misses, because then you at least get two streets of value. If you make a full house, you kind of need villain to make a flush or trips for him to call your shove.

Half an hour ago I had a ridiculous hand. I flopped quad aces, but there was just no way to get paid because I had the deck completely crippled. I had to slowplay (ldo) and just hope villain made a boat or a flush on the river. Unfortunately, he had nothing at all, so with this absolute monster hand, I only won what went in pre-flop. That's poker!

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
SB ($0.78)
BB ($2.39)
UTG ($2.51)
UTG+1 ($1.17)
UTG+2 ($1.35)
Hero ($1.23)
MP2 ($2)
CO ($0.62)
BTN ($0.89)

Dealt to Hero A A

fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.06

FLOP ($0.19) A 7 A

UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

TURN ($0.19) A 7 A 3

UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($0.19) A 7 A 3 7

UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.17, UTG+2 folds

Hero shows A A

Hero wins $0.18
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Old 02-09-2012, 05:38 AM   #13
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokes View Post
Hero has A A
RIVER ($0.19) A 7 A 3 7
Well,
Don't you think you should have vbet the flop against small pocket pairs? (which generally feel pretty safe on paired boards). Against the guys I play against, I'm pretty sure 66-QQ are calling a flop bet at least.
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Old 02-09-2012, 05:43 AM   #14
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

betting this flop is retarded. How can anyone without an ace continue? much better to check and hope he tries to steal it from you.
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Old 02-09-2012, 05:48 AM   #15
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Re: Perception vs. Reality - having the nuts

Quote:
Originally Posted by chad0x00 View Post
betting this flop is retarded. How can anyone without an ace continue? much better to check and hope he tries to steal it from you.
No, the flop is dry. Having two aces on the flop means the probability that hero has one of the two others is low. Thus pocket pairs feel safe. l2p.

Checking and hoping for a bluff is only a good idea if you think villain is aggressive. Most villains at these stakes are more on the passive side. Thus you exploit them by vbetting.
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