Originally Posted by ComeHonorFace
Can you guys help me make sure my thinking is right (in concept and execution)?
NL2. I'm on the button and preflop the MP1 raises to .20. His stats from MP are 33/22. Everyone folds to me on the Button with AQs. Pokerstove gives AQs 61% equity in the pot. Furthermore I'm sure I'm ahead of most of his range. So, I 3bet here to .80. Is this correct?
The number PokerStove gives you is the % of times you would win against his range when you would see the hand down til the river. Obviously, only a small number of hands actually get to showdown and a lot of betting usually occurs in between. Still, it gives you an idea of how your hand performs against his opening range.
If you are ahead of his open range, should you always 3bet? Again, it depends. If he will only call or raise with a range that crushes your hand, what is the value of 3betting? Suppose in this case he will always fold, unless he has something better than AQs, which he will 4bet-shove and against which you will have to fold (or call when you get the proper odds, but you'll be behind).
Maybe 3betting will show a small profit if he folds too much, but then you could also 3bet 72o as a bluff. However, if he calls (OOP) with a hand like KQo, then 3betting AQs becomes very profitable, because often you will pick up the hand on the flop or you can stack him when a Q flops.
So you have to decide the following:
- How often will he fold?
- What range will he call your 3bet with?
- What is your plan on the flop (cbet or no) and how often will you be ahead?
- What range will he 4bet with?
- Will you be commited to call when he shoves?
If you decide to 3bet (or 4bet) and you don't want to be commited to call a shove you have to put less than 33% of your stack in. In 2NL that means you can raise to about $0.55 - $0.60 and still fold against a shove. Raising a little higher is OK when you plan to stack off anyway.