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Old 02-04-2010, 02:47 AM   #841
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by pokerbiker View Post
u dont always stack off, that makes it -EV.

sometimes he (or i) is 3betting garbage or QQ with overcards AK on the board also dont really want to stack off.
also sets dont always win, which means typically the set got stacked
and that takes time to get back
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Old 02-04-2010, 02:57 AM   #842
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by pokerbiker View Post
i am wondering that the difference at nl50 is?

started talking shots at nl50 yesterday, looked at more good regs (taggish), less super nitties (8/6 full stacked, tough still there), still some fish (but less).

at the micros the winning concept is value bet, value bet, value bet; and know when to fold an overpair/toppair.

whats the "paraphrase" for nl50?
the 25 nl and lower is somewhat arbitrary, different sites, different day and time combos all affect the ratio of fish to tag regulars. in general As you move up you find more tag regs and you end up being more target selective at each table. Howevevr that doesnt mean these tags dont have weaknesses to exploit, notes are most important vs the tags since you will run into them more often and they have fewer glaring weakness compared to the fish/donks.

Value bettting continues to be a key concept as you move up, it just starts to be more selective and in situations where you are not as big a favorite since fewer players chase w trash as you move up
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Old 02-04-2010, 03:21 AM   #843
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by chrischtian View Post
i have a question about set mining in 3bet pots: i know that u don't have the right odds to setmine in 3 bet pot, but many bad/ medicore regs do it anyways.
can someone explain the math behind this? if EP/MP opens 3bb and i 3bet to 11bb, it's 8bb to call and there are 89bb's behind. assuming, that he flops a set in 1 of 10 pots, the effective stack sizes have to be around 80bb's to be breakeven.
am i missing sth.?
your scenario also assumes 3x raises

look at the situation (many tags raze 4xbb) at 4x pfr and 4x 3 bet
it may seem trivial at first glance, but look how it affects the implied odds
pfr 4bb, 3 better makes it 16bb
now assuming you have and opponent have full stack 100 bb to start
you must call 13bb and he has 84 bb behind
84/13=6.4/1
so your "potential" pay off is less than odds of hitting set even when both players are full stacked

fish dont care whether they call 3xbb or 4xbb, so charge them the extra

this math is one of several reasons i reccomend 4xbb raises up to about 100nl
others include
getting more in when ahead of fishy hands is a value play
grows pot post flop when you are typically ahead of fish, bigger postflop bets
and yes they do add up to a significant difference in winrate in the long run
it reduces fish implied odds when they hit trash hand
gets more pots heads up, simpler and easier to play heads up post flop

gl
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Old 02-04-2010, 04:06 AM   #844
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Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

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Originally Posted by Yeah23 View Post
Like this tread.

When I started I shoved more and won big pots prob more. Thinking was- I have the best hand I go big. Past few times tried to be more 'subtle' and not have as big a pay off. Some low stakes fish go all in wih top pair or less easily- just finding them and exploiting.
good point, so many micros call down overbets assuming you are bluffing

i would just add there are many other situations that give you can generate a "bluffy" image without hurting your EV. for instance, you have Ax suited and flop a flush draw, you can frequently get it all in these situations
(note-it is better as the shover, but frequently you have proper calling odds on flop as well)

but back to the Ax suited, lets say opponent has kk on a qt3 flop, even though you have basically no fold equity
you have 9 flush outs plus 3 over card outs=12 outs twice which makes you just shy of a coin flip (13 outs w 2 cards to come is a flip), but if pot is at least 10% of your stack(or opponents which ever is smaller) that makes the money odds basically a flip. Notice same thing is true vs AK on qt3 flop(or almost any flop that didnt pair a bigger Ace's kicker) 9 flush outs and 3 kicker outs, but you have very good fold equity if you push in the latter scenario or any scenario that opponent doesnt pair flop or flop has an overcard to opponent pair. both make it a tough call for your opponent

you can be very aggressive on flop in this type of situation and the only really bad situation is if you run into 2 pair or set(pretty easy to read possibility based on preflop action limped pot vs raised pot), but most times you are a flip, or a fliip w a lot of fold equity, also many times at micros you get called by a weaker flush draw or straight draw where you are substantially ahead

notice this allows you to overbet big hands and generate more calls
a huge percentage of players at micros dont understand the math above and call you a fish for pushing with a "draw", so they will call too frequently. pushing big draws by itself mostly only increases variation taken by itself, but can generate loose calls that increase winrate when you overbet big hands and other won pots when opponent folds and you win pot w A hi vs better made hands that cant/wont play for stacks

a pair (top pair much better than bottom pair especially when w/ straight draw) combined w flush or straight draw are typically as good as or better than the Ax suited scenario discussed and can be played ultra aggressive as well
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