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Old 07-13-2017, 11:42 PM   #26
King Spew
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Re: New and trying to learn.

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Originally Posted by Drumao View Post
Oh if i get a jack on the turn i still am only 43.55%.
Why? You just hit a set!

Last edited by King Spew; 07-13-2017 at 11:43 PM. Reason: trick question is tricky
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Old 07-13-2017, 11:52 PM   #27
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Re: New and trying to learn.

Ajnin thx for the tips, i do trading for a living so stuff like tilting, bank management and accepting loses are easier for me. I'm trying to play TAG right now after reading about.

The strategy and reviewing part is what I have the hardest time with tbh.
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Old 07-13-2017, 11:55 PM   #28
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Re: New and trying to learn.

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Why? You just hit a set!
because if he doesn't already have a straight he's one card away from it?
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Old 07-14-2017, 12:22 AM   #29
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Re: New and trying to learn.

Yeah, you are behind and where you are ahead, your opponents have outs. Truly troubling because our eyes get big with the third jack and we start thinKing about stacks.

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Originally Posted by Drumao View Post
QQ+,AKs,AKo - 41.11%
So against range you are behind. But not by much. In fact against this tight range, not bad! This is really close to a WA/WB hand (Way ahead/Way behind) except no hand is too far away from reversing the strength.

On the flop, villain bets 4BB into 16BB. What are you pot odds to call villain's bet? (Show your math)

And how does this compare to your equity (41.11%)?

Last edited by King Spew; 07-14-2017 at 12:33 AM. Reason: 4 into 16...not 24
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Old 07-14-2017, 08:33 AM   #30
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Re: New and trying to learn.

4/20 - 20%

So I should not bet because I need at least 41.11% to be profitable.
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Old 07-14-2017, 12:13 PM   #31
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Re: New and trying to learn.

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4/20 - 20%

So I should not bet because I need at least 41.11% to be profitable.
No I did this wrong.

My odds are 5:1 so 16.66%
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Old 07-14-2017, 12:52 PM   #32
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Re: New and trying to learn.

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No I did this wrong.

My odds are 5:1 so 16.66%
And I was thinking wrong. If my equity > pot odds i call right?
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Old 07-14-2017, 01:19 PM   #33
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Re: New and trying to learn.

4 into 20 1:5 It cost you 20% of the pot to call a hand that gives you 41.11% chance of winning. If villain over bet the pot enough to cost you 40% of the pot to win 41.11% of the time...it mathematically is OK. Without reads, you are flying by mathematics alone. We don't like that the board holds an overcard to our pair. We don't like that villain may hold an overpair (AA, KK, Qx) to our pair. BUT...against range, we are still 41% to win and are offered odds that are too good to refuse (without a solid read that villain will only continue with TP+)

When we get to the river, we have 48.39% of equity against villain's range (did you run the equity calcs on the final board vs. villain's range?). Villain AGAIN bets 4, this time into a 36 pot giving you 1:9 odds. Extraordinary. Must call. You only have to win 10% of the time to "breakeven" with your 48.39% equity.

So hand as played is fine. You called every street with enough odds to continue profitably.

Some points to consider...and I am not nearly versed in micro online NL play any more so hopefully others with current skillz can pick up the ball.

PF, villain really doesn't raise much more than a min-bet. Is this normal? Should we 4B? And to what size?

On the flop, odds are good to call,,,but what if we raise? Villain will fold the hands we are ahead on such a dry board for his range unless he wants to chance a gutshot (where we have TWO blockers) with two overcards. So raising doesn't earn very much, but does end the hand early in case another overcard hits the board. Villain starts with a short-ish stack. So let's do the math on a raise/push.

Pot on the flop is 16BB
Villain bets 4
You raise pot 20BB
Villain pushes
What are your odds to call and how does it measure up to equity?

(you need to make a new range for villain with the push because....well, would villain really push a gutshot with two overs? [AK])
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Old 07-14-2017, 01:35 PM   #34
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Re: New and trying to learn.

River
4 into 36

48.39% of the time you win 40 (the pot size) = +19.36
51.61% of the time you lose 4 (your bet size) = -2.06

This does not take into consideration of weighed range...how likely is villain to be bluffing the river with AK? He KNOWS he is giving you extraordinary odds to call...so he expects a call. Does he REALLY do this on a bluff? And weighed range is critical thinking. But as suggested above, you only need to win this 10% of the time. Is villain bluffing 10% of the time? I can't answer that but... bluffing is always > 0%.

One of the take aways from this breakdown that we have not discussed is range manipulation. If the board plays out that 87 is the nuts....and villain pumps in a huge river bet....does he have 87? There is a possibility of course. But go back to original range formulation. Would villain pump 87 PF vs. a HJ raiser? So the probability you are faced with 87 is rather remote yet beginners (and some veterans) will get a case of MUBS (Monsters Under The Bed Syndrome) and make mistakes. Often. THIS is why learning about how to construct a range (and staying close to it) is so important.

Summing up....... we have a VERY tight range given to a shortie villain and we still have the odds to call this down. Consider what happens when you widen up villain to the range you originally gave him 77+, AQo+ (assume AJo+, ATs+, KQs+, KJs+)

Last edited by King Spew; 07-14-2017 at 01:44 PM.
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Old 07-14-2017, 01:50 PM   #35
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Re: New and trying to learn.

Now the homework REALLY begins!

Open equilab and run simulations around this same hand!

Put is a capped range for CO. Put in a call range for villain. Evaluate.

Same...but now change the board to T84 rainbow, giving you an overpair.

Same villains but now fill your hand with the bottom of your raising range with the rest of the hand parameters the same.

Endless homework. Every night, do one hand from that current session. The more time you spend doing this, the faster and better you will become.
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Old 07-14-2017, 02:05 PM   #36
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Re: New and trying to learn.

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Consider what happens when you widen up villain to the range you originally gave him 77+, AQo+ (assume AJo+, ATs+, KQs+, KJs+)
Actually, this is a very good exercise.

PF, villain 3Bets your HJ raise.

...and leads on a QT4

Construct a NEW range for villain using the PF range and now eliminating the hands that would try for a checkraise on the flop. Think capped range on the flop. Remember, eliminate not add.

(Of course without reads, we don't ABSOLUTELY know if villain will Lead or Check Raise with QT in his hand. Or TT, or KJ..... )
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Old 07-14-2017, 05:29 PM   #37
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Re: New and trying to learn.

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Originally Posted by King Spew View Post
Pot on the flop is 16BB
Villain bets 4
You raise pot 20BB
Villain pushes
What are your odds to call and how does it measure up to equity?

(you need to make a new range for villain with the push because....well, would villain really push a gutshot with two overs? [AK])
If he pushes after i raise 20 my odds are: 57:1?

I'm not sure what range to use (I tried doing this with other hands I've played yt and today and deciding what range he would have is always the hardest part) but I choose this one:

QQ
KJo
kJs

My equity is 43.41% so I call unless i messed up calculating the odds.
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Old 07-14-2017, 05:59 PM   #38
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Re: New and trying to learn.

I run those scenarios you said. The one you said about using the bottom of my raising range in that position really helped me get a general view of the hands I play.

I just really didn't know how to analyse my hand properly, thanks.
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Old 07-14-2017, 08:52 PM   #39
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Re: New and trying to learn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Spew View Post

Pot on the flop is 16BB
Villain bets 4
You raise pot 20BB
Villain pushes
What are your odds to call and how does it measure up to equity?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drumao View Post
If he pushes after i raise 20 my odds are: 57:1?
One step at a time here, grasshopper.

1. When you raise 20BB, what is the size of the pot?
2. When villain pushes, he calls you bet and puts how much more into the middle?
3. Take that last amount (amount you will need to call his push) and compare to the total pot before you call.
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Old 07-14-2017, 11:45 PM   #40
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Re: New and trying to learn.

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Originally Posted by King Spew View Post
One step at a time here, grasshopper.

1. When you raise 20BB, what is the size of the pot?
2. When villain pushes, he calls you bet and puts how much more into the middle?
3. Take that last amount (amount you will need to call his push) and compare to the total pot before you call.
1. 16+4+20=40

2. Villain has 26.87 at the start.

26-5-4=17

To cover my bet he need 16 and he adds 1.something

3. Pot before I call 16+4+20+17=57

Did I do this wrong?
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Old 07-15-2017, 02:37 AM   #41
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Re: New and trying to learn.

LOL, no you got it correct. I misremembered stack of villain. (Thought 36, oh well)

I think I was driving toward the question: So when you push, do you accomplish much (against a shortie) in a WA/WB situation?

As played, we can't be sure that villain will only bet 4BB each street. But because he does, you lose the minimum when behind.
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Old 07-15-2017, 02:53 AM   #42
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Re: New and trying to learn.

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I'm not sure what range to use

(I tried doing this with other hands I've played yt and today and deciding what range he would have is always the hardest part) GREAT!!
Range construction is not too hard. You can look in a few books and read/memorize starting hand charts. And then adjust for type or player, player positions, table action, players behind...a slew of factors.

Time to turn you onto: Micro FR Concept of the Week Index. Scroll through the list of threads for a topic or find the earliest posts and read them all.

The very first thread Feb 2, 2009 gets you started with equity and ranges.

Post another hand you played within the next few days. Start a new thread. Engage in a conversations. Post here in Beginners for a little while until you find the game type area....in other words, there is a single table tournament area, multitable tourney area, live casino play, limit HE, fullring NL, 6Max..... many areas that will have people that will help walk you through your questions.

As you can see, it is OK to say "I don't know". What I try to do is find the "I don't know" guys and make them try to formulate an answer. Try not to get spoonfed.....

Welcome to 2+2, Drumao
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Old 07-15-2017, 10:20 AM   #43
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Re: New and trying to learn.

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I was trying to analyse a hand I played but I'm not sure how I count my outs in the flop.
When you're a beginner, you can't accurately estimate how much equity you have against an entire range, but it's pretty easy to count how many outs you have against top pair (or an overpair). With JJ on QTx, you have 2 outs to beat Qx.
If villain had made larger bets on the turn and river, I'd recommend folding, but when he bets such a small proportion of the pot you should call. He only needs to be bluffing (with AK for example) a small percentage of the time for your calls to be breakeven.
In a more typical spot, when facing bigger bets, you should rarely go beyond the turn with middle pair. To beat top pair/overpair, you're better off with a draw of some sort. Even a gutshot has 4 outs, compared to an underpair's two.
Cliffs: You played the hand pretty well, even if you didn't really understand how you were doing in equity/range terms.

EDIT: I just scrolled back up to take another look. Now I see that villain is short-stacked to begin the hand, I'd probably just 4-bet jam on him. Of course you'll run into QQ+ fairly often, but he might be min 3-betting with TT/99, or a random airball, and you're flipping with AK/AQ/KQs, so you'll probably do quite well against his range if you just jam it in pre. Jamming also removes any possibility of him bluffing you off the best hand on Axx, Kxx, Qxx flops (flops which will appear about 60% of the time when you have jacks).

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 07-15-2017 at 10:27 AM.
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Old 07-15-2017, 11:36 AM   #44
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Re: New and trying to learn.

Thanks a lot all of you, this was really helpful.
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