https://youtu.be/6GyH6sdOuKY

This is a random hand I stumbled upon but I was wondering if someone has insight into this. To me this seems like a pretty bad line, but maybe I'm missing something?

In my opinion, Daniel should be x/calling the flop instead of x/raising - especially on this board. It seems like a situation in which only worse folds and better calls. When he x/raises like this, he is folding his opponents bluffs most of the time. Only stronger kings, two pairs, sets, and over pairs are calling. I suppose some of the time middle pair can call like weaker Kx, A8, maybe Q8 with a backdoor flush (stretching it) and some smaller pocket pairs, but x/r for value from these hands is very very thin when Cannuli is likely to have more bluffs in his range. Why not just call and let him keep bluffing? And then on the turn he makes an even stranger decision and x/raises again? The flop x/r on a dry board seems pretty strong so shouldn't he be concerned when Cannuli calls flop and bets turn? What is Daniel trying to represent and what is he trying to get to call or fold? Is he trying to get a better king to fold now?

And I think Cannuli can just fold on the flop once he is raised, but I can see some reasons for calling. I would rather be floating with A5s/d/h though. On the turn I think the bet is ok if Daniel is x/r flop with hands like 67s, 34s, 9Ts, maybe QJs. Or he knows his pair is unlikely to be best at showdown. Otherwise just check?

Maybe Negreanu is on some next level thinking, but when I saw this I thought it was a pretty strange hand from both sides apart from the preflop raise and cbet. Maybe I'm missing something? Anyone have thoughts on my analysis?

I agree dnegs should be check calling the flop. The whole hand is pretty lol imo, especially Cannuli's flop call (wtf??).

Daniel Negreanu doesn't play very well so don't be that surprised you see him butcher a hand. Also Cannuli's call on the flop is pretty terrible against this particular player. As far as I'm concerned this is just some random fish button mashing till their fingers bleed.

I posted this hand on reddit as well and some people had some input defending the play. One person made a point that stack sizes come into effect as Daniel had around 23bb or so. Apparently here TPGK should be considered the nuts. I don't think this should change how you play TP ok kicker though? One person claims this raise is purely for value from small pairs and weaker kickers. I don't think you can raise for value specifically from these hands considering Cannuli has a lot more air and backdoor draws he would be cbetting with. If he had this sort of read, why not just 3bet preflop? I think it would be better to be raising both your strong hands (two pairs and sets) and your back door draws in this situation if you are going to take this approach and x/c with your decent hands like TP and smaller pocket pairs. If you let Cannuli keep bluffing with his draws then you could x/jam the turn because he is likely double barreling with his back door spades and 34/67 suited combos. It just doesn't seem like KJ warrants a raise at all. What do you do if you raise on the flop with this hand and then Cannuli comes over the top? Even when he just calls and then bets again on the turn you have to be somewhat concerned. I think raising here like this just makes you exploitable - I've heard Daniel talking about slow playing sets on a board like this so if he is always doing this with TP you can exploit it by jamming over the raise if he is going to fold a lot or just simply folding because you know he is never giving up in this spot and you have pretty much no equity in this hand. And if I were Cannuli I'm taking the latter option and folding flop.

I agree Cannuli should be folding after the flop raise.

What is Cannuli's stack size compared to Negs?

It seems like Negs has a pretty good read on Cannuli. He probably knows his opening range PF is massive. 525k is probably close to a min-raise here? (Not sure what blinds are).

So, Daniel gets to limp with a marginal hand KJo OOP.

Flop is pretty dry, save the King. Cannuli makes a small c'bet here. Maybe Negs has a picked up on a sizing tell?

After he check raises he represents quite a bit of strong hands. This is where Cannuli should have folded.

I don't have a problem with Daniel's shove on the turn. The 5s is essentially a blank. When Cannuli fires out for 855k it is a little more than 1/3 the pot. I don't think he has sets very often when he bets that size. He could be on a weak King or A8, A3, A5.

So, Daniel picks up on that and decides it is worth the risk to take down the pot immediately.