Dear all,

Goodday.

Using Equilab, QQ vs 78s is 78% vs 21%. If i were to calculate pot odds based on this figure it would be wrong isn't it, since the Equilab numbers assume we are all in pre flop.
So, Is it necessary to dissect equity numbers into Flop, Turn and River numbers? 78s equity would be about 10% on flop, 5% on turn and 5% on river is that correct?

Thank you.

Equity is the percentage of the pot that each hand is expected to win if run hot and cold, meaning that you just deal out the whole hand.

78-21 would be the equity of QQ vs. 87s pre-flop (I didn't check whether you had the equity right).

On the flop, the equity of QQ vs. 87s would depend on what the cards on the flop are and the exact suits of the QQ and 87s.

Taking the pre-flop equity of 21% and arbitrarily dividing it into three pieces and saying "10% on flop, 5% on turn and 5% on river" is nonsensical. I'm not sure what exactly you are trying to do.

perhaps this flop equity chart of QQ vs 78s is what you are looking for

If you put it like that, then you could say QQ has only 46.8% equity OTF! Obviously 87s doesn't have 53.2% equity vs QQ on most flops.

I think this article will be of more help to you; it will tell you the probability of flopping different hand types with suited connectors (just scroll down and you'll see a table on odds of flopping different hands).
http://www.suntzupoker.com/playing-s...onnectors.aspx

So about 5% of the time you will outflop QQ on the flop. This doesn't take into account when QQ hits a set, or gets a straight draw like on JT9. So assume its around 5%, but a little less.

In this situation, i think equity is not a very meaningful number, as equity tells you your likelihood of winning right now, but doesn't tell you the value.

Instead, I prefer to calculate EV, by creating an outcome tree and multiplying the value of each outcome by the liklihood of each outcome, then subtracting the cost of the action to determine the EV.

If you are calculating the EV of a shove on the turn, there are a fairly finite number of outcomes (Villain folds, villain calls and loses, villain calls and wins), so EV can be estimated.

Now look at things preflop, in a situation where both players are deep enough that a shove is not the automatic next bet. As you can begin to see, the number of possible outcomes, and the liklihood of them occurring, quickly becomes much to high to keep track of or estimate with any sort of accuracy.

So, in my experience, it is nearly impossible, unless shoving, to make decisions solely based on EV or equity and pot odds preflop.

Ok, I think you are trying to take the pre-flop equity and break it up into three portions to "figure out" how often the 87s is "beating" the QQ on the flop or on the turn or on the river. Is that right?

You can't take the equity and divide it into three portions and say one is how often the 87s is winning by the flop, one by the turn and one by the river. It doesn't work that way.

But here is a thread with a bunch of math showing how often a suited connector will flop different types of hands:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/39...eory-math-301/

I think Flopzilla will do these types of calculations also (I haven't really ever used it though).

Dear All,

Thank you all for your precious input. I am still a beginner, thanks for your patience in teaching.

I try to break the equity numbers into flop, turn and river because:
1. i read a lot in books about set mining on flop i.e. the chance of flopping a set on flop when holding pocket pair vs overpair is about 12%. Equilab numbers (which assume we see 5 community cards) is about 18%. So that's why we need to divide the equity numbers, otherwise we will calculate the pot odds wrongly?

2. Given that most of the time we will face a bet on both turn and river from an aggro player, so we need to consider the equity for the next street, instead of equilab numbers that assume we will see all 5 community cards for free? Otherwise we will calculate the pot odds wrongly?

What have i misunderstood about poker math?

Thank you.

You are mixing up terms. Pot odds has nothing to do with the cards. It is simply the pot at the time of the bet decision divided by the amount you have to call. So, if villain bets $10 into a $20 pot, the pot is now $30 and to call the $10 bet you have pot odds of 30/10 = 3 to 1. To make the call decision, you might then compare pot odds to card odds or know that 3 to 1 pot odds requires card equity of 25%.

Card equity is always a showdown metric. It makes no sense to speak of flop or turn equity. The other metric I think you may be confusing with equity, is hit probability. You compared the 12% chance of flopping a set with Equilab’s 18%. What does the 18% represent? If it’s getting a set by the river (including full houses) why does that calculate pot odds wrongly? If it’s a showdown equity, that is different from hit probability, unless the hit is the absolute nuts.

The issue you may be rightly struggling with is that if the flop bet is not all-in, there will be future betting depending on the turn and river cards so showdown equity on the flop is not a complete picture. Then you have a game tree with a bunch of decision branches that makes detailed analysis complicated often requiring a computer program like CREV. One partial solution is to estimate implied odds, which takes into account how much you may win if you hit a winning hand on a future street.

This is where I was headed with my comment before I read this one.

When you look at a situation you can look at both 'right now' or 'later' implications.

Pot Odds are 'right now'. If you are 80-20 then you 'simply' need a 4 to 1 bet size to make a BREAK EVEN decision. Pot odds do typically imply that you are going to showdown 'next'.

But in real poker we have Flop, Turn and River decisions that we may or may not need to make. If we solely based our decisions off of pot odds we may never see a Turn card as the first person in the hand would (should) bet a large amount as to make a call unprofitable most of the time .. without other information.

When you are looking to set mine you are looking for implied odds (or potential chips). There simple just isn't enough opportunities to get 8 to 1 on a call PF in poker. So you have to rely on getting more chips into the pot 'after' you hit your set. Typically players wont set mine unless stacks give them a potential of 15-20x the bet they are facing to set mine. This makes up for all the times you miss, don't get paid ... and get beat even if you hit your set.

Whenever you are facing a bet you must decide 'the now' and the 'how' ...

The now ... how strong is my hand right now compared to the pots odds I'm being offered. Remember these are separate entities that we just compare.

The how ... how often will I be good at showdown, how often will my hand improve with the next card and how often will I get more chips in the pot whether 'I'm good' or if I improve.

Last thing .. and I said it already .. The percentages you are looking at are BREAK EVEN odds over many hands. WE DON"T PLAY POKER TO BREAK EVEN. GL

This is a great answer!

but if you're going to reject equity as a methodology you should be able to suggest and demonstrate a superior approach?

You nailed it, i struggle with post flop. Thank you everyone for your input.

Can i quote an example below so that i can get guidance. Feel free to add/edit assumption if you have to.

FR cash game 100bb buy in, villain TAG UTG open raise 5bb QQ+. BTN Hero calls 78s. Everyone else fold.

Question 1. Did hero make a bad call? because hero hand is inferior. Equilab shows villain 78% hero 22%. How do i make use of this equity numbers? I suppose we can use this number and link it to implied odds? if yes, how?

Question 2. Will the hit probability matter? i.e. with suited unpaired the chance of flopping four flush is 11%, OESD 11% etc.

The flop comes 459 rainbow. Villain cbets.

Question 3. How much is the maximum bet i can call profitably? Equilab now still show villain 78% hero 22%.

Thank you all.

Thanks for your input. Given the complication of the decision tree and hence the accuracy, how do you approach the game? And also given there is clock in online poker, how do you guys calculate so many things so quick?

Dear all,

I have further questions about difference btwn equity vs probability. Thanks for your patience.

When holding suited hand, the chance of making a flush by the river is 6% according to suntzupoker.com. Does this mean that regardless of villain hand, we always have 6% chance making flush by the river?
Probability does not need villain hands to be calculated, whereas equity requires villain hand to be calculated is that correct?

What situation do i need to use probability and what situation do i need to use equity?

Thank you.

Dear All,

Goodday.

I am reading rule of 4/2 on http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy.../pot-odds/4-2/.

An excerpt below:
A. Multiply your outs by 2 when you are on the flop waiting for the turn.
B. Multiply your outs by 2 when you are on the turn waiting for the river.
C. Multiply your outs by 4 when you are on the flop waiting for the river (opponent is all-in).

Actually point A is dissecting equity numbers isn't?

Thank you.

You have lots of questions ... and I think you understand that some of the answers cross over each other. You are doing research .. EXCELLENT!! One of the best ways to interact here is for the OP (original poster) to be active in the discussions.

Probability assumes that all the cards are available in the deck. This will change when you see the board and if you make any assumptions about what your opponent is holding. Some TV broadcasts will adjust these numbers based on the cards that have already been mucked/burned.

Equity is comparing your current holding to your opponents current holding. In reality you are comparing against a range of hands that your opponent 'should' be holding.

Rule of 2 and 4 is a quick approach to the probability that your hand will improve with the next card (or two) coming out.

You can hold a huge equity advantage over an opponent and still consider the number of 'outs' you have to improve your hand that may come. Typically you only consider 'outs' when you think you are behind, but it can be done at any time during a hand.

In your example, lets make the math easy and call it an 80-20% advantage for the QQ+ opponent. So in a Pot Odds (right now) sense you need 4 to 1 to get involved here. You are putting in 5bb and the SB+BB+UTG is 'only' 7bb. So you were only getting 1.4 to 1 to call the 5bb. This is a bad call when looking at direct Pot Odds.

In order for you to make this call of 5bb you need to win 20bb (not 7) in order to break even in the long run. How are you going to get the extra 13bb? This is where implied odds comes into play and when you are 100bb deep then those chips are available. The problem is that in order to win more chips you will have to put more chips into the pot yourself as well and that instantly changes the calculation again.

You are only going to hit 'any' Flop 30% of the time and you may still be behind even if you do connect with the board. If you put your opponent on QQ-TT and you think you can steal the pot when an A or K hits the board, then you can add those 'outs' to your calculations. Those outs don't improve your equity in the hand since your hand doesn't improve, but you can use them when calculating the probability that a card that 'helps' you will come out on the board.

Keep reading ... Give the posters some time to comment on your questions before you pose more questions. You can search for other similar threads as well. GL


PS ... calling with 78s on the B against QQ+ is not a good poker move if you are going to be HU unless you have an opponent who will pay you off a lot or you can steal. This would be an advanced play and is not recommended too much. GL

Card equity is essentially the probability you will win the hand. Some sources define it as your share of the pot so that the probability of a tie is accounted for. If you add ½ the tie probability to your win probability and call that equity, you’re ok IMO.

The 6% flush probability figure is calculated with no assumptions about opponent(s) hands. Obviously, the actual probability will depend on opponent holdings but since you generally don’t know them this serves as an initial assessment of how your suited hand will do if it gets to showdown.