Online variance isn't more brutal than live. You just get to experience it in all its glory because there are so many more hands online than live.

I guess ultimately this is the only answer out there. It's just tough to swallow considering I'm not 0-8 in my previous eight 80/20 scenarios.

not in what looks to be an stt on the bubble, no

Okay so you had a 10% * 20% * 30% chance of losing all three in a row. That's a 0.5% chance.

To put things into perspective, you are dealt Aces 0.45% of the time preflop.

These spots happen in poker. The bad players claim that online poker is rigged, and the good players employ good bankroll management, focus on improving on what they control, and so win money.

Go to the tournament section of 2p2 and post individual hands and get some discussion going, if you want to improve. If you want to vent, go to BBV.

All you can do is get your money in good. You can't control the cards that come after. So, by your own account, you are doing great! Keep it up!

No disagreement or confusion with the math. If this were the only set of hands I saw I wouldn't have made this thread. I'm 0-8 in my 80/20s. Go ahead and plug 0.2^8 into a calculator and get back to me.

Also, I posted this originally to bbv and got booted out.

Guy hit a two outer on me the other night! Man how unlucky is that.

I did do the math, correct me if I'm wrong; that situation occurs: 1/3906 or around that number.

Take a look at some of the graphs shown in threads:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69...ighlight=graph

I don't want you to look at how well they did. Look at how many hands they play. Having a quick read I see some 20,000 - 60,000 hand graphs. For one month. Now obviously a lot of those hands are folded - I don't want to get into the exact specifics of how often your situation occurs in a 50k sample but the point is that a 1/4000 probability is still a drop in the bucket.

You'll also see a lot of posters who started years back with thousands of posts. 50k hands over a couple of years (even on-and-off) is a big number and a lot of posters here have been in the same situation (and worse) ten times as much. Which may be part of the reason some replies seem blunt.





I can't speak for what goes on in BBV, I've never looked at it for longer than 20 seconds. I beat 2nlz and 5nlz (doesn't say much, working on 10nlz); I like to think those two are related.

You're witnessing the loss of a bunch of 80/20's because you're playing tourneys that involve you constantly shipping your stack. Someone else mentioned there are probably tons of non-showdown hands you win as an 80/20 but you just didnt know it because they folded.

hmm

Get outta here... My post is about online variance. He chose a small selection to illustrate how likely it is that I'd see those hands. I'm suggesting that he applies the same logic to my entire sample. That's not whining about beats.

You say you're looking for feedback and advice. I don't know what advice or feedback you're expecting.

If you want advice I'd say 'keep getting it in as a favourite'.

If you want feedback on the stats you provided I'd say 'thanks, that's mildly interesting, please keep us updated down the track'.

This is most of the story, the other piece of the puzzle is that the average live player is stupidly bad compared to online, consequently live win rates for a competent player are vastly higher. Running at 8bb/hour instead of 4bb/100 swallows a lot of the variance pain.

Annnndd I'm back. But only to say WB nailed ^^ the edge/variation differential live V online.

You told us how many times you lose AA allin preflop for example. But how many times overall did you lose with AA if it wasnt allin preflop? How about all those times you raised, got 1 caller, bet the flop, and he folded? Maybe he folded the turn instead? What do you think those players were folding to you every time, air? There's a good bit of pairs that "could have sucked out" but didnt, and probably would not have if they held on to the river.

Last night I get it allin preflop for 100BB AK vs AQ, AQ wins. I then lose KK to QJ on a J55QJ allin on turn. That was 5 days after my last beats. I think I only played about 20 hours since then, so assuming 35 hands per hour I've been sucked out on horribly in about 700 hands, or roughly the equivalent of 5 suckouts as a massive favorite within 2-3 hours of time if this were online play

Sorry to bump this thread, just trying to prove a point to OP as I play live.

No, you chose a small sample in your second post this thread when you said "well I'm 0/7 in 80/20s". You even gave some arbitrary chance of that specific case happening, so that is all you.

What do you want anyone to say? So you lost 8 80/20's that's a shame but if you did the same thing 100 times you'd expect to lose 20. You aren't even halfway there. How many times have you won 80/20's?

lest you think that random crap never happens, tonight in our live game we saw a flop of 444 twice

Trow a coin 130 times see if it's a perfect 50%

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Look, man, your sample is small. Like real small, so much as it almost does not count.

Over infinity of runs, AA is 82% vs 18%. But over 10 hands, it might be 2-8, or 3-7, or even 0-10. Tough luck. The more runs you have, the closer it will regress towards the mean. And yes, it might be theoretically possible that not enough runs in your lifetime will suffice to regress exactly to that mean.

Over 100,000 hands, in average KK will still, in average, win 17,910 times. Might be even more than that, because 100,000 is by definition a sample and not an infinite number. That is almost eighteen thousand times. If you are AA vs KK, great. You did your job. But you do not automatically "deserve" to win that hand, you are not entitled to win. Bad beats, coolers, suck-outs, etc., are part of the game. WSOP tournaments are won and lost on those. It happens against us, we have some against others.

Just this week, I was handed AA twice over two days. Raised PF, got called by Villain to see the flop. In those two hands in a row, Villain hit their absolute monsters on the Flop (664 Boat with 64 in the first, made straight the second). Went AI to face that I was almost running dead... and runner-runners made me win both pots. I did not "deserve" to win, I was not "happy" that they hit their absolute nut top of their range, but I had some lingering odds to win and I won. I am sure, however, that both Villains went ape**** behind their computers. And yet, it's all legit. Had I been AI PF against both Villains the same cards would have happened, even I was murdering their PF equity.

That is why poker is gambling and not a hourly-wage job. We aim to play +EV to maximize our expectation of profit in the end to realize that profit. But ultimately, variance decides what cards we get.

If you cannot live with the fact that Villains might hit their two-outs and win your money, and it might be happening over a long stretch of time, maybe poker is not the right game for you.

I did a simple chi square test – (observed – expected) (Excel ChiTest) after combining adjacent categories so expected >=10. I found that there is an 8% chance of OP’s results if there was no bias or rigging. While not high, this probability is high enough to indicate he was just pretty unlucky.

(I know OP posted his data about 8 months ago)