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Was this more bad play or bad luck? Was this more bad play or bad luck?

08-04-2015 , 12:30 AM
This was a live 5/10 NL Hold-em game on the Las Vegas strip. (Minimum buy-in = $400.) We were only seven-handed because it was a "must move" table. I had bought in for the minimum and worked my stack up to about $750 when this hand occurred.

I was under the gun (UTG) with QQ. I just limped in, hoping to check-raise. This was a bit risky not only because it was not a full table, but also because there had been a fair number of un-raised pots (i.e. all limpers) to see the flop.

UTG+1 raised to four big blinds ($40). Perfect. My former "spewy" self was hoping for more callers in order to do the easy thing and just shove, but it was folded around back to me. Heads-up now.

I had been studying Professional No-Limit Hold-Em, Volume One. So I considered his range and realized that it included AA and KK. So I just re-raised to 9 BB to see what he would do. (None of this thinking had been in my play-book before.) He immediately min-raised to 18 BB.

I didn't know this fellow, but my experience with the 5/10 players is that they are generally straightforward. (I've only ever seen one totally-wild 5/10 game.) So my suspicion grew that he could be holding AA or KK. Plus, he min-raised --that's an invitation. He just seemed to be trying to get more money into the pot pre-flop, which made me more suspicious of AA.

So mission accomplished: my study of cash play paid off! I presumed that he was ahead. What I had put into the pot so far was only 12% of my starting stack, and 14% of my remaining stack, so I was not pot-stuck. I could reasonably fold.

But old habits die hard. I wanted to play my queens! Plus I was only playing with won money.

Time for a plan. My plan was to call the additional 9 BB and commit if I hit a set. (This only happens once every 8.5 times, and I had only one opponent. I would take the worst of it by far on the additional 9 BB.)

THE FLOP: K-Q-brick with two s. I checked. He made a pot-sized bet, I shoved, and so did he. I tabled my cards.

THE OUTCOME:
Spoiler:

The board ran out with s, and he tabled AA for the nut flush.

Any other comments? (<-- i.e. besides the question in the Subject)
Was this more bad play or bad luck? Quote
08-04-2015 , 01:30 AM
This was more bad luck than bad play although you should have open-raised instead of limp-raising with a hand like QQ. Limp-raising is something you should try and restrict to AA or KK
Was this more bad play or bad luck? Quote
08-04-2015 , 03:13 AM
Seems like both.
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08-04-2015 , 03:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadJohn
So mission accomplished: my study of cash play paid off! I presumed that he was ahead. What I had put into the pot so far was only 12% of my starting stack, and 14% of my remaining stack, so I was not pot-stuck. I could reasonably fold.

But old habits die hard. I wanted to play my queens! Plus I was only playing with won money.
If you called feeling certain you were crushed, then that's bad play isn't it?
Was this more bad play or bad luck? Quote
08-04-2015 , 03:39 AM
por que no los dos
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08-04-2015 , 05:55 AM
Why the open limp? Why the almost min re-raise pre? You have just given correct odds for him to call with almost anything. Why set mine with nowhere near good enough odds to do so after you are re-popped (if I am reading correctly you were getting approx 8:1)?

It's not bad luck if it's bad play to begin with.
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08-04-2015 , 05:59 AM
Nice try, not falling for it. Next please.
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08-04-2015 , 07:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
Seems like both.
Spoiler:
imo
Was this more bad play or bad luck? Quote
08-04-2015 , 07:36 AM
If history teaches us anything it is that you should raise big with your QQ+ playing live...Although it didn't matter this time. It wasn't a bad play, you were actually doomed to be stacked in this hand, there was nothing you could do.
I mean, let's say you raise 15bb - the guy with AA could just flat to trap - you hit your SET and you are never folding, and he is going all the way.
Or you raised 15bb and he re-raises you to 30bb...are you ever folding QQ here? Really don't think so...
Was this more bad play or bad luck? Quote
08-04-2015 , 08:12 AM
Although there was some dead money in the pot you really weren't getting the right price to set mine with QQ here. But there is also 'other' math to look at ..

Any time you make a decision you need to range your opponent. You said his range included AA/KK, right? Well, what else did it include? If 'only' AK/JJ/QQ then you are ahead of that range to make a call. 12 combos of AA/KK against 22 combos of AK/JJ.

But what happens when you eliminate AKo and only use AKs? Now you are 12 combos against 10 combos and thus behind that range. But you are still priced into a call here with the dead money in the pot. This play isn't very +EV, but is still a good call.

So IMO you made a 'bad' decision to set mine (stacks too small to pot) ... but made a good call if you look at your opponents potential range(s). If your opponents range is reduced here, then you made a 'bad' decision and a 'bad' call.

How do you get the best of both worlds here? You open the betting and call your opponents raise here. Now you 'should' have both the stack size to set mine with and 'probable cause' to believe you may be making a +EV call against his range without dealing with a 4-bet.

Poker is about making good decisions for the 'right' reasons. We need to look more at the decisions and not so much the wins and losses. Hope this is clear as a creek after a rain storm!! GL
Was this more bad play or bad luck? Quote
08-04-2015 , 08:27 AM
#1 im not a fan of limpraise foolishness, to the observant opponent it shouts WARNING. It was especially bad here. you were only 7 handed but apparently had seen a multilimp pot several times. if your goal is to repop it, then such a non aggro table is certainly wrong for it

#2 Queens for setvalue, ouch. the way you played you essentially put him on AA or KK only. you hit your set (great) but there is also a K in the flop, so 50% of the hands you gave him just hit an even bigger set, ouch

#3 i dont know if you really had all those thoughts when u played the hand, or they came later when thinking about it. but the way you describe it, fold pre. next hand go
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08-04-2015 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadJohn
I just limped in, hoping to check-raise.
Are pre-flop check-raises a thing now? Unless you posted your blind out of turn, I think you mean limp-reraise.

Please don't limp with queens on a table full of droolers. This hand should have gone raise-call pre, check-shove flop.
Was this more bad play or bad luck? Quote
08-04-2015 , 12:52 PM
Alright then I'll have a crack at it.

Don't limp pre and if it is with the intention of limpraising make it bigger than a minraise. In this case make it 13BB or even bigger, people in live games don't fold to 3bets. The problem with this line is that it looks incredibly strong, even stronger than what you currently have. Most people think you have KK+.

So then you get 4bet, you are out of position and he made an incredibly tiny raise. You need to call 9BB to win 18+9+2 so roughly 3,2:1 which isn't enough to setmine getting immediate odds so you'll need to win another 5 * 9bb or so postflop on average, of course assuming you're behind.

With 75-18bb (57) bb left and having to win 45 on average, this is nearly impossible. When you flop a set he's got like 15% equity on average so if it goes all in you have 85% * 57*2 - 57 = 40bb equity which isn't even the amount you need to average. If you truly believe you are behind fold is the correct play. This calculation is for when he stacks off 100% of the time when you flop a set, doesn't account for the times he flops a higher set and ignores the fact that you could be off in your assumption he has a better hand.

Shove or fold. If he is sometimes clowning around shove, if he isn't then fold.

Oh and when you do limpraise, everyone knows what you have. They will still call and that's why it sometimes can be good. I used to do it a lot in live games against clueless fish, they just don't fold top pair even though they know you have aces. I even balanced it with less than premium hands when some regs started to notice. It's still a suboptimal line against a lot of opponents which is why I don't really recommend it.
Was this more bad play or bad luck? Quote
08-04-2015 , 06:17 PM
Bad luck, as mentioned, you were almost destined to get stacked on this one.

Consider looking at bet/raise sizes. You recognize the invitation of the min-raise, but didn't do much better. The UTG+1 could have raised a wide range, and called your 3!, still stacking you with a flush, or coming along on straightening cards (unsure if the straight draw came in as well.

Give opponents chances to make errors. The 'standard' bet and raise sizes are frequently used for a reason.

This time it was bad luck. You did get it in with the best hand. Unlucky that he went runner-runner. Next time it may be bad play. Try a more ABC approach. I'm assuming the money isn't significant, as there are lower stakes games available.
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08-04-2015 , 06:49 PM
You probably shouldn't be playing 5/10
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08-04-2015 , 07:37 PM
I pretty much hate this entire hand, limp-raise is bad but if you are going to do it do so to GII not dick around, min raise is bad because making it min without reasons is bad and raising 'to see where you are at' is bad, calling to set mine without odds to set mine is bad.

Postflop is fine but you deserved to lose for all those preflop shenanigans, so chalk it up to karma.
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08-04-2015 , 10:01 PM
just bad luck you played this hand perfectly
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08-04-2015 , 10:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dwimmerlaike
You probably shouldn't be playing 5/10
Point well taken, but I've never played deep-stacked at 5/10, and don't plan on trying it soon. Only short-stacked. 5/10 is where I've been most profitable. I take it more seriously and play more carefully.

All the more reason to play ABC as some here suggested: will open-raise QQ-99 UTG.

(By the way, "ABC" is where I like to play: Anywhere But California. Vegas is so much better, and worth the drive.)
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08-04-2015 , 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by denks
It's not bad luck if it's bad play to begin with.
Amen. Now that's a keeper.


Quote:
Originally Posted by denks
Why the open limp? Why the almost min re-raise pre? You have just given correct odds for him to call with almost anything.
This is the response that I thought about most. My re-raise from 4 to 9 BB made the pot 15.5 BB. To call 5 BB to win 15.5 BB = better than 3-to-1 that I offered him. He could have called with anything.

I study the best poker books and then make a grade-school mistake like this. Which only strengthens my conviction that poker is like tennis, golf, or playing the guitar: if you don't get good at it while still a teenager, you'll never be worth a s***.
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08-04-2015 , 10:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadJohn
Point well taken, but I've never played deep-stacked at 5/10, and don't plan on trying it soon. Only short-stacked. 5/10 is where I've been most profitable. I take it more seriously and play more carefully.
You buy in for $400 at a 5/10 table a get aces all in pre for and $800 pot.

You buy in full at a 2/5 table for $500 and get aces all in pre for a $1000 pot

Looking at this simplified example is easy to see which table is more profitable for you in the long run given your OP
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08-04-2015 , 11:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadJohn
Which only strengthens my conviction that poker is like tennis, golf, or playing the guitar: if you don't get good at it while still a teenager, you'll never be worth a s***.
I disagree.
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08-05-2015 , 05:55 AM
Must agree with Mr Beer's disagreement there. I didn't learn poker until I was roughly 30.
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