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 06-18-2012, 02:52 PM #196 grinder   Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 451 Re: June Beginners Bankroll Thread Also. If everyone is 3 bet and 4 bet getting it in with AA-QQ, AK then in the long run no one is winning money( reciprocality). Your just coolering each other
06-18-2012, 03:12 PM   #197
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by ugthemc If you don't mind the extra variance, go ahead. But most of my money comes from loose-passive players- Even regs at at our stakes know how to avoid making basic pre flop mistakes( not all of them obv). So I think the best plan is to exploit them post flop, especially on the turn and river where the pot is the biggest and therefore the decisions just matter more. Also, if a reg is folding to 3 bets something like( my numbers are probably not %100 accurate) %60+ then you can do it with ATC and show a profit, so why essentially turn your hand into a bluff in some spots? I'd rather play vs a wider range by calling with AK and QQ(especially IP)
But if they're opening say 20% (I know that's a little loose but it makes the maths easier), then folding say 70% to a 3bet, they're still playing a 4% range when they call (assuming they 4bet AA-QQ always), most of which is crushed by QQ. So if we win 4.5bb 70% of the time when they fold, win 70% of 10.5bb (=7.35bb) 20% of the time when they flat (assuming we have 70% equity and IO = RIO) and lose 9bb 10% of the time when they 4bet and we fold, the play has an EV of 3.15+1.47-0.9=3.72bb each time we make it. I think the RIO for flatting are such that this is a better play.

06-19-2012, 12:20 AM   #198
grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 451

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheDefiniteArticle But if they're opening say 20% (I know that's a little loose but it makes the maths easier), then folding say 70% to a 3bet, they're still playing a 4% range when they call (assuming they 4bet AA-QQ always), most of which is crushed by QQ. So if we win 4.5bb 70% of the time when they fold, win 70% of 10.5bb (=7.35bb) 20% of the time when they flat (assuming we have 70% equity and IO = RIO) and lose 9bb 10% of the time when they 4bet and we fold, the play has an EV of 3.15+1.47-0.9=3.72bb each time we make it. I think the RIO for flatting are such that this is a better play.
where do you get 4%? 70% of 20% would mean he's calling with 6% of his hands. I'm not the best at math, but your numbers seem off to me.

7% of hands sounds like a good range to put on that guy. But you don't play poker in a vacuum IMO. Your making alot of assumptions. Plus you're talking about folding QQ preflop, which is a disaster because its totally unneccesary.

Like I said, it depends. And what do you mean Reverse implieds Odds of flatting QQ? In your scenerio, your playing vs the top of their range, while I'm playing vs 20% of their range

Also, your scenerio is fatally flawed by the fact that different villains have different post flop tendencies, so the ev of flatting isnt constant, it will change according to the villain. Open shoving AA/ KK preflop would definately be plus ev, but would it be the most plus ev decision?
That's why poker isn't played w/ calculators.

For me, I like exploiting villains post flop, where they are more likely to make a mistake, especially on the turn and river. Like I said, most regs nowadays( and even alot of rec players) at the very least have a solid preflop game.

06-19-2012, 09:50 AM   #199
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by ugthemc where do you get 4%? 70% of 20% would mean he's calling with 6% of his hands. I'm not the best at math, but your numbers seem off to me. 7% of hands sounds like a good range to put on that guy. But you don't play poker in a vacuum IMO. Your making alot of assumptions. Plus you're talking about folding QQ preflop, which is a disaster because its totally unneccesary. Like I said, it depends. And what do you mean Reverse implieds Odds of flatting QQ? In your scenerio, your playing vs the top of their range, while I'm playing vs 20% of their range Also, your scenerio is fatally flawed by the fact that different villains have different post flop tendencies, so the ev of flatting isnt constant, it will change according to the villain. Open shoving AA/ KK preflop would definately be plus ev, but would it be the most plus ev decision? That's why poker isn't played w/ calculators. For me, I like exploiting villains post flop, where they are more likely to make a mistake, especially on the turn and river. Like I said, most regs nowadays( and even alot of rec players) at the very least have a solid preflop game.
He's 4betting AA-QQ, which is roughly 2%. I'm making assumptions about standard villains and thus arguing that it should be a standard play. The RIO comes because he's going to probably win more off you when he flops a set and you an overpair than you win when he flops TPTK.

Also, if you don't 3bet QQ, your 3betting range is mostly air even more so and in a vacuum it's instantly profitable to 4bet bluff ATC.

I'm talking about folding QQ pre because nobody 4bets JJ or AQ, so realistically if you get it in you're either crushed or racing. With about a 40/60 distribution.

 06-19-2012, 10:08 AM #200 old hand     Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,333 Re: June Beginners Bankroll Thread Recovered from the disaster of yesterday, I went on late last night and recovered 2 BI so I was only 3.5BI down then today I won 4BI so I'm back to where I was! I was 3.5BI up at one point then quickly dropped 2BI and I was just like "no don't do this to me!!"; was fully expecting to have another landslide but held it together and got it back up. If I have a steady spell at NL10 where I'm continously improving and winning then I'm going to take the step up to NL25 - my roll is ready but just don't think I could handle similar swings that I'm undergoing at NL10.
 06-19-2012, 07:10 PM #201 journeyman     Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 296 Re: June Beginners Bankroll Thread run good is back some sick sick hands. and split by NL2 and 5 if anyone is interested NL2 NL5 Last edited by I Liek Mudkipz; 06-19-2012 at 07:19 PM.
 06-19-2012, 07:44 PM #202 journeyman     Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 296 Re: June Beginners Bankroll Thread Also just noticed, going through my graphs and stuff, that I have a very bad habit of playing zoom when i'm on tilt -.- graph of all hands excluding zoom. much better than one above [x] goal number 1: reach NL5 by 20th (just about) new goal [ ] do not, i repeat, do not touch zoom poker
 06-19-2012, 08:49 PM #203 forum-inhabiting degen     Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: spaced out ... Posts: 6,512 Re: June Beginners Bankroll Thread Got platinum star again this month. Even though I put in hardly any volume in Feb/Mar I am still ahead of the pace for supernova by years end.
 06-19-2012, 08:55 PM #204 centurion     Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Poker room Posts: 197 Re: June Beginners Bankroll Thread yea dude zoom is super tilting, you gotta be in such peace of mind when grinding out. playing some chill music in the background helps me.
06-19-2012, 11:03 PM   #205
grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 451

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheDefiniteArticle He's 4betting AA-QQ, which is roughly 2%. I'm making assumptions about standard villains and thus arguing that it should be a standard play. The RIO comes because he's going to probably win more off you when he flops a set and you an overpair than you win when he flops TPTK. Also, if you don't 3bet QQ, your 3betting range is mostly air even more so and in a vacuum it's instantly profitable to 4bet bluff ATC. I'm talking about folding QQ pre because nobody 4bets JJ or AQ, so realistically if you get it in you're either crushed or racing. With about a 40/60 distribution.
??? @ first paragraph? Flops a set? You've lost me.

????? @ the second paragraph.. how many people do you think are exploiting us between 2 NL- 25NL by 4b bet bluffing us?

And putting yourself in a spot to fold QQ preflop is a leak IMO

 06-20-2012, 03:37 PM #206 old hand     Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Yorkshire Posts: 1,317 Re: June Beginners Bankroll Thread Some days the fish just don't seem to bite, and some days they're throwing themselves into the net. Saw some crazy play tonight - calling draws to, well, a pair I think. Lol at the play here, what was SB doing spewing his stack away with air? Mind you, CO held his nerve because SB could have had a set: PartyGaming - \$0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 3 MP+1: \$2.00 Hero (LP): \$3.01 CO: \$2.61 BTN: \$1.65 SB: \$2.08 BB: \$2.00 UTG: \$2.44 UTG+1: \$1.91 MP: \$3.39 SB posts SB \$0.01, BB posts BB \$0.02 Pre Flop: (\$0.03) Hero has 9 8 fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to \$0.08, fold, SB calls \$0.07, fold Flop: (\$0.18, 2 players) 6 4 J SB checks, CO bets \$0.18, SB raises to \$0.36, CO calls \$0.18 Turn: (\$0.90, 2 players) 9 SB bets \$0.44, CO calls \$0.44 River: (\$1.78, 2 players) J SB bets \$1.20 and is all-in, CO calls \$1.20 Spoiler: SB shows 3 A (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 14%, Flop 8%, Turn 0%) CO shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks) (Pre 86%, Flop 92%, Turn 100%) CO wins \$3.98 Managed to stack this fish, pity he only had 50bb. I didn't raise on the turn because I realised he would be pot commited on the river and was more likely to get his stack on a later street. PartyGaming - \$0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 3 UTG: \$1.20 Hero (UTG+1): \$2.00 MP: \$2.09 MP+1: \$1.89 LP: \$2.79 CO: \$1.97 BTN: \$2.30 SB: \$2.04 BB: \$1.00 SB posts SB \$0.01, BB posts BB \$0.02 Pre Flop: (\$0.03) Hero has 8 8 UTG calls \$0.02, Hero raises to \$0.08, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls \$0.06, UTG calls \$0.06 Flop: (\$0.25, 3 players) 7 8 5 BB bets \$0.12, fold, Hero raises to \$0.28, BB calls \$0.16 Turn: (\$0.81, 2 players) K BB bets \$0.20, Hero calls \$0.20 River: (\$1.21, 2 players) A BB bets \$0.44 and is all-in, Hero calls \$0.44 Spoiler: BB shows J A (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 47%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%) Hero shows 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights) (Pre 53%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%) Hero wins \$1.99
06-20-2012, 05:39 PM   #207
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dunna100 In b4 busto

SWONGSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS. There was also some tilt in there although I generally played pretty okay.

at one point I was regwarring someone and went 1-15. Love my absurdly high rb (actually slightly higher than on the graph, but sharkscope caps the percentage at 100 ), only reason I didn't kill myself imo.

Gotta love them hypers!

 06-20-2012, 06:16 PM #208 Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Lol Hyperaments. Posts: 4,093 Re: June Beginners Bankroll Thread You know what? F Variance and just run like god
06-20-2012, 06:21 PM   #209
centurion

Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Poker room
Posts: 197

Quote:
 Originally Posted by enprinte You know what? F Variance and just run like god
thats a sexy graph

06-20-2012, 07:12 PM   #210
journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 296

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Duncelanas SWONGSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS. There was also some tilt in there although I generally played pretty okay. at one point I was regwarring someone and went 1-15. Love my absurdly high rb (actually slightly higher than on the graph, but sharkscope caps the percentage at 100 ), only reason I didn't kill myself imo. Gotta love them hypers!

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