Ignoring ICM/only care about chip EV.

Hero was just moved to this table. UTG+2 shoved TT previous hand, lost, and starting going off in chat.




What should Hero do and why?

Call...close

If UTG pushes with 8% and CO pushes with 4.5% than Icmizer says call with 2-3%

If CO pushes with 3.5%, fold.

does he look like a man beaten by jacks?

Looks like a trivial fold to me. Run the equity of JJ vs QQ+/AK, and consider also that UTG+2 put about 90% of his stack in, so that's another player you need to beat.

You're not a favourite against CO unless he shoves as wide as TT+,ATs+,AJo+. I just don't see many players showing up in this spot with at least one card lower than a jack.

The obvious ...
1) You are facing a 4-bet shove into your UTG+1 open
2) You are equally 'unknown' to CO as he is to you
3) Forget the short stack ... What do you do with 20bb and JJ facing 'any' raise?

The assumptions ...
1) CO may 'see' the tilt factor in UTG+2
2) How much lighter is CO range against 2 shorter stacks?
3) You 'should' be facing at least 1 over card, but how often is it 44-TT?

Personally I would still have some reservations about QQ, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't call it off either. Although the main pot can factor into our pot odds I'm still solely looking at a 'standard' 4-bet shove response here and JJ should be on the low end of those battles a lot.

Not sure how this decision can't have any ICM influence but 25bb is still quite a bit to 'recover' from folding JJ with these days ... unless you are facing a Level change and/or in a turbo. GL

+1

Seems like a trivial call to me. You have around 32% equity against a range consisting of tt+ and aqo+. Utg+2 is showing wider than that.

32% heads up in a side pot is not enough equity heads up.

Yeah I didn't pay enough attention to the stacksizes initially. Turns out it doesen't matter since you have 46% heads up with co showing tt+ and aqo+. Since utg+2 probably shoves wider, co should shove wider too. So a pretty trivial call anyway.

In your experience do people regularly jam 30bb over an early open and a 10bb shove when there are still 3 people who haven't acted? It's a $2 donkament, that makes it more likely that he is going to flat the 10bb with a worse hand and isn't aware of proper reshoving ranges (or that reshoving is an option in the first place).

I almost never see this being AQo or TT.

This is incorrect. In a big way.


New player shows up in early position. Raises. Most thinking opponents will be cautious until more is known and steer a wide berth around new player. Villain's range is much tighter than TT+, AQo+

Yeah you guys can speculate because of your experience and you are correct.

I need to run the numbers to be sure therefore if CO pushes with a range less than 3.5% its a fold.