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 06-16-2012, 10:44 PM #1 journeyman     Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 222 Implied pot odds I am not sure I quite understand the logic behind pot odds unless it's on the river. If I flop the nut flush draw with pot 100 pre flop and my opponent knows I have the nut flush draw and he has top pair top kicker so he wants to make it unprofitable for me to call so he would have to bet more than 200 to make it a bad math move for me to call since I have about a 40% chance of hitting my flush counting 4th AND 5th street. However, if he bets say 150 instead on the flop, is it really profitable for me call because I don't know what he is going to do on the turn or river. Shouldn't I really just assume I only have a about 20% chance to hit my flush by just counting the turn card meaning if he bets more than 1/3 the pot, I must fold since I don't know what will happen on future streets. Obviously this is all opponent dependent, but I am just trying to understand implied odds and pot odds.
 06-16-2012, 10:51 PM #2 veteran     Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Minimum stake, maximum rake Posts: 3,055 Re: Implied pot odds The idea behind implied odds is estimating how much you'll win if you do hit. So you have a 20% chance to hit your flush on the turn, but if you hit your flush you'll also win an opponent's bet on the turn, possibly a bet on the river, possibly your raise, etc. That's why you don't always need direct odds to call -- if more money is going into the pot on later streets, when you hit your draw you win all this "extra" money. Obviously because of this implied odds matter more when stacks are deeper (because your opponent has more money you could potentially win when you do hit).
06-17-2012, 01:32 AM   #3

Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,168
Re: Implied pot odds

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Pokernutz1954 If I flop the nut flush draw with pot 100 pre flop and my opponent knows I have the nut flush draw and he has top pair top kicker so he wants to make it unprofitable for me to call so he would have to bet more than 200 to make it a bad math move for me to call since I have about a 40% chance of hitting my flush counting 4th AND 5th street. However, if he bets say 150 instead on the flop, is it really profitable for me call because I don't know what he is going to do on the turn or river. Shouldn't I really just assume I only have a about 20% chance to hit my flush by just counting the turn card meaning if he bets more than 1/3 the pot, I must fold since I don't know what will happen on future streets. Obviously this is all opponent dependent, but I am just trying to understand implied odds and pot odds.
1) your opponent never knows you have the nut flush draw unless you somehow show him your cards.

2) if you have the nut flush draw, you are not 40% to make a flush by the river. closer to 35%.

3) you are correct that when you evaluate a call on the flop, you should consider the probability of hitting one the turn - not by the river (unless you will be all-in or close). You can then compare pot odds to the odds against hitting - and also consider implied odds, if you think he'll be betting or calling if your flush hits. But the chance of hitting by the river is really irrelevant - because on the turn you will be facing another decision if you don't hit and a completely different situation if you do hit.

 06-17-2012, 05:17 AM #4 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: on top of Manhattan Chase Posts: 6,638 Re: Implied pot odds
06-18-2012, 08:11 AM   #5
journeyman

Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 222
Re: Implied pot odds

Quote:
 Originally Posted by VBAces 1) your opponent never knows you have the nut flush draw unless you somehow show him your cards. 2) if you have the nut flush draw, you are not 40% to make a flush by the river. closer to 35%. 3) you are correct that when you evaluate a call on the flop, you should consider the probability of hitting one the turn - not by the river (unless you will be all-in or close). You can then compare pot odds to the odds against hitting - and also consider implied odds, if you think he'll be betting or calling if your flush hits. But the chance of hitting by the river is really irrelevant - because on the turn you will be facing another decision if you don't hit and a completely different situation if you do hit.
so I should fold if I am going for flush if villian bets more than 33 in the above example?

 06-18-2012, 08:57 AM #6 veteran     Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Minimum stake, maximum rake Posts: 3,055 Re: Implied pot odds No, read my post or DD's linked one.
 06-18-2012, 09:46 AM #7 centurion     Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 170 Re: Implied pot odds I never fold the nut flush draw dude. Especially with overs your a fav over tp's. I like to c/r that ish all in.
 06-18-2012, 10:19 AM #8 centurion     Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 170 Re: Implied pot odds With the nut flush draw you've almost always have 1 over or 3 live outs plus your fd. Even w/o an over you still have decent amount of equity. I'm playin hu sngs at the moment. Just to give an example in the games i play, I raise to 100 chips and villain calls. The pots now 200 chips and we have 1400 behind. I flop the nutflush draw and villain open shoves. What should we do? Well i need to call 1400 to win a pot of 3000 so 14/30 = 46.67% equity to make it a call here. We are only at 44% so we should fold. Interesting. I'm usually c/r all in and am not facing a shove, but its interesting to know that u should be folding a nut flush draw facing a shove w/ tp or better. With 2 overs your a favorite to win so you can snap call, but with only 1 over you must be careful about calling it off. Last edited by Johniblayze; 06-18-2012 at 10:37 AM.
 06-18-2012, 10:36 AM #9 centurion     Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 170 Re: Implied pot odds Your crushed against a set tho.
 06-18-2012, 11:35 PM #10 journeyman     Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 222 Re: Implied pot odds ok, let me set up a new scenario... 1. Let us assume if I have 4 out of 5 cards needed for the flush and there are 2 streets left to come then I have 38% chance to him my flush. There are 52 cards in a deck. Can we all agree on that??????? You know 4 out of the 13 in that suit have already been dealt so 52-4=48 and 9 remaining. 9/48=18.75%x2 streets=37.5%. Let us not argue about whether it is 35 or 40 anymore. Let us just say 38% 2. I realize I have no way of knowing this, but let us assume the following: My opponent flopped a set and the turn and river will not improve his hand, he will just check on the turn and river no matter what hits and no matter what I do, I have the 2 and 3 suited and the ONLY way I win is if I hit my flush. I have no set, overpair, straight, fulll house, 4 of kind or any other possible hands that will hit on the turn or river, I will check on turn and river no matter what 3. The pot is currently 100 on the flop and villian is first to act 4. Villian bets 200 5. I am not getting the right odds to call: pot is now 300 and I need to put in 200 to call so 300:200 is 3:2 so I need to be good 2/5 or 40% of time and as discussed above I am only 38% to hit my flush (my only out as discussed above). So if I was strictly a math player, I should fold, right??????
 06-19-2012, 12:20 AM #11 adept     Join Date: May 2007 Location: Exeter, UK Posts: 957 Re: Implied pot odds 1. There are a couple of mistakes here but I can see you want to avoid that discussion so ok let's say 38%. 5. Yes, you are not getting the right odds to call. Yes, you should fold.
06-19-2012, 12:33 AM   #12
grinder

Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 684
Re: Implied pot odds

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Pokernutz1954 ok, let me set up a new scenario... 1. Let us assume if I have 4 out of 5 cards needed for the flush and there are 2 streets left to come then I have 38% chance to him my flush. There are 52 cards in a deck. Can we all agree on that??????? You know 4 out of the 13 in that suit have already been dealt so 52-4=48 and 9 remaining. 9/48=18.75%x2 streets=37.5%. Let us not argue about whether it is 35 or 40 anymore. Let us just say 38%
Let's not argue, but it is 35%.

First of all, on the flop there are 47 unknown cards, not 48. Out of those unknown 9 cards are of the suit you're looking for, 38 are no good. The chances of missing the turn is 38/47. If you miss the turn there are 46 unknown cards left, 37 of which are no good for you. Chances of missing the river is 37/46. You will miss both turn and river 38/47 * 37/46 = 0,65 - 65% of the time. The remaining 35% you will hit you flush on the turn or on the river or both.

06-19-2012, 12:51 AM   #13
journeyman

Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 222
Re: Implied pot odds

Quote:
 Originally Posted by quadas Let's not argue, but it is 35%. First of all, on the flop there are 47 unknown cards, not 48. Out of those unknown 9 cards are of the suit you're looking for, 38 are no good. The chances of missing the turn is 38/47. If you miss the turn there are 46 unknown cards left, 37 of which are no good for you. Chances of missing the river is 37/46. You will miss both turn and river 38/47 * 37/46 = 0,65 - 65% of the time. The remaining 35% you will hit you flush on the turn or on the river or both.
you are right, it is 47 and I forgot to include the fact 1 more card is now known once the turn hits. But why don't you get the same answer when you just add 9/47+9/46=38.7%

 06-19-2012, 12:59 AM #14 adept     Join Date: May 2007 Location: Exeter, UK Posts: 957 Re: Implied pot odds Because it doesn't properly deal with the possibility of hitting on both the turn and the river. I toss a coin twice. What is the chance I get a tail? Well it's 1/2 + 1/2 right?!?
06-19-2012, 01:02 AM   #15
grinder

Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 684
Re: Implied pot odds

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Pokernutz1954 But why don't you get the same answer when you just add 9/47+9/46=38.7%
This tells you that on average there will be 0.387 cards of your flush on the turn and the river. But since there sometimes will be two cards of that flush it pulls the average up. (Edit: Sorry, this is not exactly correct either, on average there will be 0.383 cards of your flush on the turn and the river, because if you hit the turn there are fewer flush cards left on the river)

To calculate it the other way around you have to consider the following situations:

1. You hit the turn: 9/47 = 19,15% (In this case the river is irrelevant for your flushing purposes so we don't need to consider that)

2. You miss the turn but hit the river 38/47 * 9/46 = 15,8%

Add them together: 9/47 + 38/47*9/46 = 35%

(you can double check that this is correct by adding the chance of missing from my previous post and it will add up to 1: 9/47 + 38/47*9/46 + 38/47*37/46 = 1)

Last edited by quadas; 06-19-2012 at 01:16 AM.

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