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Old 07-01-2012, 12:04 AM   #1
centurion
 
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I always lose to the river card

I'm so sick of calling/raising OTF with the best hand and getting called (if I raise) and then getting beaten on the river.

How do I prevent these situations? I'm a few hundred bb below my all-in EV line. Sample size is small (5k hands).
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Old 07-01-2012, 12:08 AM   #2
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I would guess the regs here would say u need to put in higher volume of hands. As long as ur always making +EV plays in the long run u should be ahead. However there's no rule that says after 10k hands u should've a winner. So u could theorically runBad for a long while. . Just keep getting it in good a hopefully it turns for u
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Old 07-01-2012, 12:50 AM   #3
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Re: I always lose to the river card

First off, you don't always lose to the river card. Without ever seeing you play, I'm pretty sure that you have similar experiences to other people - that is that sometimes you lose on the river, sometimes you win on the river, and sometimes the river doesn't change things and you were either ahead or behind.

But if it really is true that you are losing on the river more than you mathematically should be it is possible that you have just been extremely unlucky. But it is also possible that your bet sizing has not been good, and you have offered your opponents very tasty odds to call. I have no idea if this is true, but you might want to look back at your hands. Look at how many people were in the hand, look at the price you were giving them to call and draw. If you are pricing appropriately then if they call and beat you just shrug and say they made a mistake and got lucky. More often than not they will be paying too high a price, and when they miss you will get their money.

This is why people will often tell you to post hands. They can then look at your bet sizing and offer advice about what you have done. Some losses are unavoidable - the cards, bet sizes and stack sizes simply dictate that someone is going to lose a big pot. Other losses might be avoidable. The main thing is that sometimes you can just say you got unlucky - but if you really have it happen a lot more than it should, then it might be you are doing something wrong that can be fixed.
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Old 07-01-2012, 01:29 AM   #4
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Re: I always lose to the river card

You win some...





    On Game, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13392372

    BB: $20 (100 bb)
    MP1: $20 (100 bb)
    MP2: $19.50 (97.5 bb)
    Hero (CO): $53.39 (267 bb)
    BTN: $29.10 (145.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with K T
    MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, BTN folds, BB calls $0.40

    Flop: ($1.80) 5 9 Q (3 players)
    BB checks, MP2 bets $1.40, Hero raises to $3.50, BB folds, MP2 raises to $6.70, Hero raises to $52.79 and is all-in, MP2 calls $12.20 and is all-in

    Turn: ($39.60) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
    River: ($39.60) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

    Results: $39.60 pot ($1.98 rake)
    Final Board: 5 9 Q 9 7
    BB mucked and lost (-$0.60 net)
    MP2 showed A A and lost (-$19.50 net)
    Hero showed K T and won $37.62 ($18.12 net)



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.







    ...you lose some...





      On Game, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13392362

      MP: $14.50 (72.5 bb)
      CO: $20 (100 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $20.50 (102.5 bb)
      SB: $19.98 (99.9 bb)
      BB: $11.74 (58.7 bb)
      UTG: $25.24 (126.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 3 3
      UTG raises to $0.60, MP folds, CO calls $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, SB folds, BB calls $0.40

      Flop: ($2.50) 3 J 2 (4 players)
      BB checks, UTG bets $1.90, CO calls $1.90, Hero raises to $4, BB folds, UTG raises to $6.10, CO raises to $19.40 and is all-in, Hero raises to $19.90 and is all-in, UTG folds

      Turn: ($47.40) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      River: ($47.40) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      Results: $47.40 pot ($2.37 rake)
      Final Board: 3 J 2 9 7
      CO showed A T and won $45.03 ($25.03 net)
      Hero showed 3 3 and lost (-$20 net)
      BB mucked and lost (-$0.60 net)
      UTG mucked and lost (-$6.70 net)



      Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
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      Old 07-01-2012, 02:00 AM   #5
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by turrrh View Post
      I always lose to the river card
      No, you don't. Poker is a really bad game for people with imprecise and defeatist thinking, so this kind of untrue, whiny remark is not a good sign BTW.

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by turrrh View Post
      How do I prevent these situations?
      Stop playing poker.

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by turrrh View Post
      I'm a few hundred bb below my all-in EV line. Sample size is small (5k hands).
      Get used to it, poker is like that. The good news is you also get days when you are an unstoppable force of poker destruction at the tables.
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      Old 07-01-2012, 04:35 AM   #6
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by turrrh View Post
      How do I prevent these situations?
      Make a petition to modify the rules so as the river card is excluded. We will have flop and turn.

      As long as you play, you will have your share of losing (and winning) to the river. Maybe now you are facing negative variance.
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      Old 07-01-2012, 09:13 AM   #7
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Nobody always loses on the river. A fire hydrant can win a hand once in a while. It's either variance or bad play or both that makes for a constant loser. Poker is hard.
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      Old 07-01-2012, 12:45 PM   #8
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by seoulken View Post
      You win some...
      ...you lose some...
      Awesome raise sizing
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      Old 07-01-2012, 12:58 PM   #9
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      I am also always ahead on the flop then lose to a bad river card. We should play heads up and see if we *both* lose to a bad river card at the same time. Then we will know for sure that poker is rigged.
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      Old 07-01-2012, 01:12 PM   #10
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by turrrh View Post
      I always lose to the river card
      Is this like, "Whenever I can't find something, it's always in the last place I look?" Would you be surprised to learn that "on the river" is where all of the actual winning and losing takes place in poker? Because that's when all the cards are out and showdown happens.

      Like you said, your sample size is small. Get more volume. Your other problem is that you view your hand as already having won before you've gotten to the river and showdown, and therefore feel like chips have somehow been stolen from you before you've even had a chance to win them yet. Also, make sure you're pricing out those draws and that you're actually playing profitably for the long term.
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      Old 07-01-2012, 01:44 PM   #11
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by chad0x00 View Post
      I am also always ahead on the flop then lose to a bad river card. We should play heads up and see if we *both* lose to a bad river card at the same time. Then we will know for sure that poker is rigged.

      LoL, sounds like a plan. Can I rail?

      btw, sir, your avatar is creepy
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      Old 07-01-2012, 04:10 PM   #12
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Nothing but chops on the river.
      LOL rakeaments.
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      Old 07-01-2012, 09:42 PM   #13
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Some helpful stuff here so far, mostly sarcastic garbage. I'll add my 2c.

      5k sample size is effectively meaningless. It's not unheard of for winning players to have downturns of 50k or more, or 100k break even periods.

      I'm not sure if you're playing limit or NL. For limit, you may not be using position properly (check-raising as part of your arsenal to face the field with two bets instead of one) or you might be too loose or passive pf. You might not be sizing your bets properly (awareness of chip stacks) or utilizing pot control in NL.

      In any event, all players, winning or otherwise will get sucked out on. This is actually a good thing, because it means you're getting most of your money in when you're still ahead, or statistically likely to be ahead on the river.

      Keep a level head, work on your leaks, and keep playing.
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      Old 07-02-2012, 12:03 AM   #14
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Quote:
      Originally Posted by Hmpf! View Post
      Awesome raise sizing
      Not that often that I get to make a 210bb shove - might as well make the most of it!
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      Old 07-02-2012, 11:01 AM   #15
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      Re: I always lose to the river card

      Why not fold river card then?
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