How would Phil Ivey fare in a pub game? - Beginning Poker Questions

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How would Phil Ivey fare in a pub game?

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08-28-2015 , 05:44 AM

MGPT80

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 83

As our casino only offers a handful of MTTs, I tend to play a lot of pub games. These are generally $50 games, ~50 runners, 15-20 minute blinds and 5 hour license. The standard of play is indescribably atrocious but it's generally more of a social thing.

If Phil Ivey (or any other top pro, just using him as an obvious example) were to play 100 of these tourneys with full focus, what sort of results do you think he would achieve? How quickly would he be able to adjust to the limp-calling and condensed ranges and how exploitable would it be within that crappy structure?

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08-28-2015 , 06:02 AM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,738

he'd crush it obviously

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08-28-2015 , 06:16 AM

denks

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Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 7,032

Bad players are easier to beat than good players. This is the same in all sports and games, why do people think poker is somehow different?

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08-28-2015 , 06:22 AM

MGPT80

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 83

No, wouldn't expect it to be different and obviously he'd crush it. I'm just interested in to what extent he would crush it.

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08-28-2015 , 06:26 AM

WereBeer

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How easily would he adjust, are you serious OP? He would adjust extremely easily and be by far the best player in the room, of course.

edit

Quote:

Originally Posted by MGPT80

No, wouldn't expect it to be different and obviously he'd crush it. I'm just interested in to what extent he would crush it.

Oh that's different, it's a much more sensible question. He'd crush it by exactly tree-fiddy.

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08-28-2015 , 06:59 AM

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 25,855

The adjustment time is would be zero because a top pro would have observed how the game was played before he sat down.

A win rate is pure speculation since we don't know the structure of the levels, the payout level and the impact of having a name pro show up regularly at a pub game to the number of runners.

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08-28-2015 , 07:20 AM

pike58jack

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 166

I want to point out that the structure of these games would create extreme variance.

While I agree with most responses that he would crush I do believe that it wouldn't be evident in 100 tourneys. Maybe not 1000 tournaments. Of the Phil's of the poker world (Ivey, Hellmuth, Galfond) I actually like my money on Hellmuth he does really better then the other two at short stake amateur play

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08-28-2015 , 08:51 AM

Dwimmerlaike

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 1,849

How would Messi fair in a sunday league game?

I mean come on this is hardly worth focusing on.

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08-28-2015 , 08:57 AM

Bene Gesserit

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There is no definite answer to this question except that he would be the best player in the room.

He might be so amused by some of the outrageous play that he might lose some focus , but likely would adapt quickly.

Despite the structure I am guessing he would cash a very high % of the time out of 100

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08-28-2015 , 01:46 PM

#10

tiltninja

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,937

also, lets not act like he has no experience playing against fish. a lot his money would come from fish...the ones who like to play high. plus, he would've started off playing fish just like everyone else, except when he started everyone was a fish (by today's standards)

the only thing that may give him trouble is the structure which is designed to be a crapshoot and not punish bad play very much. but that goes for everyone - it just won't allow him to flex his muscles and you might overestimate his win %. he'd still win more than anyone else in it in the long run, though

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08-28-2015 , 02:27 PM

#11

CrockPot1027

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 426

He wouldn't crush these games because he simply wouldn't care it's such small stakes that he wouldn't be able to care it's like going from 2knl to 2nl only 100x worse. That is unless he had some kind of big money side bet where he could take the games seriously which nobody would make with him for the obvious reason.

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08-28-2015 , 03:44 PM

#12

Evoxgsr96

self-banned

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dwimmerlaike

How would Messi fair in a sunday league game?

I mean come on this is hardly worth focusing on.

Well technically there is no variance in football lol just saying...

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08-28-2015 , 05:29 PM

#13

darchas

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 380

Quote:

Originally Posted by Evoxgsr96

Well technically there is no variance in football lol just saying...

What?.If there were no variance in football Barcelona would win every game and no one would bother watching

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08-28-2015 , 07:37 PM

#14

ArtyMcFly

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Depends if Jerry Yang or Jamie Gold go to the same pub. #LOLdonkaments

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08-28-2015 , 07:50 PM

#15

denks

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After a lot of thinking about this, I'm fairly certain Ivey would have a 350% ROI

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08-28-2015 , 07:57 PM

#16

bigreddog

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 196

15-20 minute levels.. he will crush it.

However in pub games where the blind levels are 10 minutes with blinds on an insane climb, there will be high variance.

My feeling is he will win less at those levels.

All speculation ofc

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08-28-2015 , 08:13 PM

#17

WereBeer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigreddog

If there is higher variance, the crusher won't win less often, he will win with higher variance.

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08-28-2015 , 08:23 PM

#18

bigreddog

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 196

Quote:

Originally Posted by WereBeer

If there is higher variance, the crusher won't win less often, he will win with higher variance.

Interesting. Purely from a maths sense, you should be correct.

Got a question for you.

Say you are forced to get it all in 8 times within 30 minutes with high variance.
Doesn't that mean Ivey will win the entire tournament less often?

I played a few of those pub tournaments last year.
Those 10 minutes levels kind of games became a crap shoot for me.
Often at final table, the average stack only has 3-5 blinds.

Everyone is shoving with junk.

Does the crusher still NOT win less often?

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08-28-2015 , 09:07 PM

#19

AlienSpaceBat

table tilting animal

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 9,703

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigreddog

Often at final table, the average stack only has 3-5 blinds.

Ivey has 25bb though

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08-28-2015 , 09:09 PM

#20

bigreddog

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 196

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlienSpaceBat

Ivey has 25bb though

lol if he does... CRUSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Is his edge so good that he has 8x the average at every FT?

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08-28-2015 , 09:58 PM

#21

AlienSpaceBat

table tilting animal

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 9,703

Ivey will always have 8x your stack. It's how he rolls.

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08-28-2015 , 10:09 PM

#22

bigreddog

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 196

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlienSpaceBat

Ivey will always have 8x your stack. It's how he rolls.

true lol

Being owned is not a good feeling is it? haha

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08-28-2015 , 11:22 PM

#23

Evoxgsr96

self-banned

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by darchas

What?.If there were no variance in football Barcelona would win every game and no one would bother watching

okay well im waiting for you to tell me some variance examples in sports and don't tell me "unfair fouls/calls".

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08-28-2015 , 11:29 PM

#24

Doc T River

Master of the Edit Line

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 13,059

I have played a ton of bar poker and I think Ivey would make the necessary changes and do quite well.

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08-28-2015 , 11:51 PM

#25

WereBeer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigreddog

There are 2 elements to this question IMO:

- If you have two tourneys and they're the same in every way but one is higher variance, then no, the crusher will not win less often. They will win as often but with higher variance.

- If you have two tourneys and the structure of one is such that skill edges are reduced e.g. blind levels go up more quickly so stacks are shallower, then the crusher wins less often. That's not variance though, that's because he can't leverage as much of an edge.

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