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Old 08-09-2012, 02:08 PM   #1
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How stats help my game

Hello,suppose we play 6 max NL4 holdem cash game.We are on CO and open raise x3 AJo,button and sb folds,bb call.Flop 22K(rb)bb check and we c bet 4bb,sb raise 8bb.If his stats like: vpip36,pfr26,check-raise flop 4/22,aggre factor flop 3,50,cbet90% and fold to c bet 40%.Can you flat and try to showdown with A high?I think the most important stat here is his folding to c bet stat.
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Old 08-09-2012, 02:44 PM   #2
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Re: How stats help my game

Ace high might be good here quite often, but I usually fold to the flop minraise if all I have is 1 overcard. Villain can be raising here with any pocket pair, but he can also do with this with a king. You might be drawing to just 3 outs. At the lowest stakes, I don't think it's wise to get into tricky situations until you've got a lot of stats and notes on someone. When you have a reliable read, you can start out-playing him. Until then, just try and make a solid hand and bet it for value, and fold hands that are unlikely to win.
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Old 08-09-2012, 02:58 PM   #3
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Re: How stats help my game

I want get intro tricky situation cos i this situation move up my winrate,i dont want play NL4 for 10bb/100.So we have position and a good read,he dont fold cbet often.And this is 8-10bb in to ~20bb.
He thinks,"This is good paired flop to me ckeck raise my 98s cos that nit c bet a lot and folding if dont have a king or 22"
But when i flat he never rarrel withou hand and my A high was good most of 60%.That did you say?
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Old 08-09-2012, 04:32 PM   #4
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Re: How stats help my game

If you think your read is solid then go for it. I just find playing weak-tight in the micros is the low variance way to build a roll. Someone playing 36/26 will donate his whole stack when he makes TP and you have TPTK or an overpair, so I don't feel the need to get creative in marginal situations like this one. I only get tricky against 2NL/4NL regs when I have about 1000 hands on them, so I can be more certain of success in particular spots.
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Old 08-09-2012, 09:08 PM   #5
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Re: How stats help my game

And here's an example of the sort of problems you get yourself into when you get tricky, like I just did.
Villain was playing 39/24 and running over the table with his big stack and aggression. I decided to make a stand with a weak hand.
    Party, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    Hero (BB): $1.34 (67 bb)
    MP: $0.66 (33 bb)
    UTG: $0.54 (27 bb)
    BTN: $1.79 (89.5 bb)
    CO: $5.02 (251 bb)
    SB: $3.72 (186 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 2 2
    2 folds, CO raises to $0.08, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06

    Flop: ($0.17) 3 3 7 (2 players)
    Hero checks, CO bets $0.08

    Villain almost certainly didn't hit this flop. He's going to c-bet 100% of the time. I have a hand that is just better than ace high, but I can't play the guessing game and check-call all the way to showdown when there will be overcards on every street. I decide to make a small raise, in the hope of taking down the pot straight away.

    Hero raises to $0.18
    , CO calls $0.10

    Dammit! Villain calls and I have him on any 2 overcards. Do I continue to rep a made hand, or do I give up now?

    Turn: ($0.53) 9 (2 players)

    This 9 seems unlikely to have hit villain. I think he has two Broadways. So I bet again, once more hoping he'll give up all his equity.
    Hero bets $0.25, CO raises to $0.50,

    And he minraised me! Now what? I could be ahead, I could be behind. I'm playing a bloated pot with a hand that has very little chance of improving and I haven't got a ****ing clue where I'm at because players like this are impossible to put on an accurate range.
    Hero folds
    I fold what may have been the best hand, and vow not to get tricky again. To beat this player, all I have to do is make TPTK and then let him valuetown himself.

    Spoiler:
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    Old 08-10-2012, 02:25 AM   #6
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    Re: How stats help my game

    how many time has anyone won with 22? with reraise and bet. you have no clue on what he has could have something could have nothing. try keep it low price so you win but small in stead of losing alot. why play such low percentage hand?
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    Old 08-10-2012, 03:16 AM   #7
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    Re: How stats help my game

    Yes Arty thanx for example i agree with you,but in this hand we are oop and we are the caller.
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    Old 08-10-2012, 03:36 AM   #8
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    Re: How stats help my game

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ArtySmokes View Post
    And here's an example of the sort of problems you get yourself into when you get tricky, like I just did.
    Villain was playing 39/24 and running over the table with his big stack and aggression. I decided to make a stand with a weak hand.
      Party, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BB): $1.34 (67 bb)
      MP: $0.66 (33 bb)
      UTG: $0.54 (27 bb)
      BTN: $1.79 (89.5 bb)
      CO: $5.02 (251 bb)
      SB: $3.72 (186 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 2 2
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.08, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06

      Flop: ($0.17) 3 3 7 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $0.08

      Villain almost certainly didn't hit this flop. He's going to c-bet 100% of the time. I have a hand that is just better than ace high, but I can't play the guessing game and check-call all the way to showdown when there will be overcards on every street. I decide to make a small raise, in the hope of taking down the pot straight away.

      Hero raises to $0.18
      , CO calls $0.10

      Dammit! Villain calls and I have him on any 2 overcards. Do I continue to rep a made hand, or do I give up now?

      Turn: ($0.53) 9 (2 players)

      This 9 seems unlikely to have hit villain. I think he has two Broadways. So I bet again, once more hoping he'll give up all his equity.
      Hero bets $0.25, CO raises to $0.50,

      And he minraised me! Now what? I could be ahead, I could be behind. I'm playing a bloated pot with a hand that has very little chance of improving and I haven't got a ****ing clue where I'm at because players like this are impossible to put on an accurate range.
      Hero folds
      I fold what may have been the best hand, and vow not to get tricky again. To beat this player, all I have to do is make TPTK and then let him valuetown himself.

      Spoiler:
      I agree he's cbetting 100% here, so what you need to know is how often he fires the second barrel, and how often he instead fires once and gives up. When you raise the flop cbet, you're repping very narrowly- if he has stats on you, then he'll know that you 3-bet pretty widely from the blinds, playing your hands in a straightforward reg-like fashion, so you would have 3-bet QQ+ always, and probably JJ as well. There are no flushes and straights that you could be drawing to, which leaves you only repping 88-TT (most regs would slowplay 77 or 33 in this spot). This is a super-narrow range, meaning that your total range here is heavily weighted towards air. Moreover, you raise very small- only one bb over the minraise- which gives another clue that you're trying to run a bluff, particularly since the range of hands that would raise the cbet are ones where you probably want to take it down with now, given the range of overcards which could come.

      You have an SDV hand- treat it as such: you can call the flop cbet, but have to be prepared to keep calling if you want to play that way. Expensive if you get the flop read wrong or he spikes.

      Finally- you're trying to blow an aggrodonk off a hand with a near minraise? Save that for weaktight regs who are running 14/8 with a 90% cbet stat. Bluff weaktights, call down aggrodonks, valuetown stations.
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