I've been having a lot of trouble lately with OESD / FD's/ gutshots.
I guess I have a 30% chance of catching a FD or OESD by the river, so if he's willing to go all in OTF its a -ev play. At the same time, calling him down probably isn't great, because im either going to call 2 streets and have to fold, or call 2 streets, hit it, then hes gonna put the breaks on. This leads me to conclude my only viable option is to checkraise, or flop re-raise, and then fold to any flop 4bet, essentially turning my hand into a bluff.

It gets even more complicated, because most of the time what happens is that I'll semibluff raise, and rather than 4betting me(giving me an easy fold), or folding himself, he calls and then we see the turn. Obviously the turn doesn't usually complete my draw, so now i'm in a bloated pot

The only solution i can think is: if turn is a good scare card, barrel again. if not just check turn fold river and lose half my stack. It's getting very costly

I realize i oversimplified it, and if villian has a high cbet% semibluffing would probably be ideal, if he only goes forward with the nuts maybe chase my draw if im getting value ?

Standard situation:

20/18 raises MP, i flat from button with QT
Flop K J x rainbow.
A) what SHOULD i do?
B) if i raise his cbet, he calls, and the turn misses me, what do i do ?
C) what if it was a gutshot, how would that change it?

Scenario 2 (out of position)

a 40/30 with a 20% fold 3bet, 40% fold cbet, and always stabs when checked to opens MP, i 3bet with JT from the blinds, he calls
flop comes A 9 8

I realize this post is getting long, but what are some of the factors to consider when playing with draws. What do you look for in opponents/ board texture that helps you decide how to continue?

Thanks

Scenario 1.

Flat OTF.

You will only fold hands that aren't probably double barreling (unless they pick a FD OTT). So those hands will most of the time give up OTT, so by flatting you can get that % of his range to give up, without commiting a big portion of your stack in to the pot. This is because K J x r hits his range fairly hard.

If you raise his cbet and he calls, xb is usually the most EV line OTT, if the turn card doesn't change anything. You have some equity, but not enough to commit. You have almost no FE if he called the raise OTF.

Scenario 2.

Cbet

So you have OESD. You will get loads of fold with the A being heavily in your range. In this scenario, I would most likely take a second barrel and maybe 3rd to fold out his QQ-TT, and maybe AJ-AT in some cases. You have the best scarecard OTF, use it and evaluate on later streets.




Btw, I don't even have raise vs cbet range on rainbow flops, as you'd need to balance your bluffs correctly with value, and raising cbets on dry boards with value hands are most likely less +EV than flatting the cbet. Vice versa, most people don't understand that their raise vs cbet on dry rainbow flops are heavily weighted toward bluffs, so in many cases I can turn it to +EV call with almost A2C.

In the end it comes to comparing how board hits your villains range and to yours perceived range. You will almost never get the direct odds to call with nakedFD's or OESD, so you will need to determine your foldequity and how often he can cbet with air in order to pickup the pot with a raise or with a stab on the next street.

Also you need to determine how often you are getting paid when the draw hits. With SD's the implied odds are much bigger than with FD's. This leads to semibluffing being usually more effective with flushdraws than with straightdraws. You can't be afraid to C/R shove OTT, when you have determined that you got enough FE.

this is a very interesting point. I have noticed that a LOT of people xraise me and raise my cbet on dryboards. if the board is Jxx Qxx Kxx or Axx some regs seem to do it like clockwork. I KNOW that theyre doing it as a bluff (unless it really is all in my head..) but I completely miss the flop, so i just fold. If i had mid pair I'd look them up, but i almost never have anything. Do i just let them get away with it? how would you combat this, is reraising them back with air spewy?

Flat and stab OTT. However x/r and raise vs cbet are completely different things. On the otherhand x/r's on dry boards also are probably more wéighted towards bluffs.

But you really shouldn't go crazy defending vs these, as from time to time they will actually have a flopped set and just have no idea how to play it. So you probably shouldn't defend unless you have some equity like overcard or 2 or a gutter/backdoor FD.

An incredibly important factor here impacting our actions is EFFECTIVE STACK SIZES!!!!!

The situation is different at 50bb vs 100bb vs 200bb.

Drawing hands are heavily dependent on both direct odds and implied odds. Effective lines are always a balancing act between direct odds vs odds of hitting vs fold equity vs implied odds.

In general, here is how I approach drawing situations.

If I have a strong image vs a villain that I have fold equity against (lets assume that 40%+ of the time I can blast him off his hand and he will fold) and I'm 100bb+ deep, my inclination will almost always be to barrel off all three streets paying attention to sizing so that I can maximize my fold equity.

If my villain is more of a station and/or I have a weak image then I'm less likely to barrel and more likely to draw or to manipulate the situation so I can draw. For instance, if we raise the flop and he calls, then he is likely to check the turn and we can check back and then in effect see two streets for the bargain basement price of just a flop raise . Then if we hit on turn or river we can go for straight value.

If effective stacks are deep and I sense villain has a strong hand, then I'm almost always going to prefer drawing and keeping my implied odds as high as possible.

If I sense any weakness from villain in terms of his sizing, I'm going to be more inclined to trying to utilize fold equity and bet him off the hand.

If villain has a wide raising range and I have a strong image, I'm going to be more inclined to retake the initiative and barrel him off his hand.

If villain has a fairly tight raising range and the board hits his range, I'm more inclined to draw.

IF villain denies me proper drawing odds on ANY street I'm more inclined to just fold. This goes double for OBVIOUS draws (like flush draws) and if villain has shown that he will NOT pay us off if that draw hits. Then again, I'm more inclined to just fold.

If I have what I call an "invisible draw" like a double gut shot or a OESD that opens up a backdoor FD on the turn, and implied odds are high (i.e. we are 200bb deep) then I'm more inclined to draw even if direct odds are not there (i.e. villain bets near pot on turn) but only if we can make it up with implied odds if we hit.) Similarly, if I'm up against a villain that will pay me off if I hit I'm more inclined to draw...

In a nutshell, that is how I approach drawing situations.

It's a balancing act between direct odds, implied odds, image, and fold equity (hopefully we are in position as well ).

When we have fold equity I'm more inclined to use it and barrel off

When we are really deep and villain is likely to pay us off, i'm more inclined to draw for as cheap as possible.


hope this helps...

What Harris said.

Another way to think about it is: would I rather win the current pot now or have a shot at his whole stack? What is the likelihood that either will happen? What does the math say?

If villain likes to fold, then that militates in favor of raising. Against a folder, a raise is likely to win right there and he won't be prone to pay off a big bet when you hit anyway, so you should tend to raise him. On the other hand, if he likes to pay off and you are deep stacked, then that militates in favor of drawing.

Also, the more likely he is to follow up with a big turn bet, the more likely you should be to move in, assuming the math for hitting is correct.

This part is incorrect.

When you have zero fold equity and are on a draw, it is never advisable to go all in when facing big bets. Either you have the correct direct/implied odds to draw or you don't.

When you do, you simply call to draw. When you don't, you fold. To do otherwise is to just be in the "I haz a good hand I not folding" mode.

Whenever our villains are betting big we can still realize value when we hit our draws, for the most part once villains show extreme aggression they just are never folding no matter what. This is why it's just better to call when you are drawing and have zero fold equity. Otherwise, you are putting in extra money that you don't need to.

nice summary DH thx

Usually for me this occurs around the third large single malt

Yeah dgiharris prettymuch nailed what I was trying to say.

WP

Flat flop and fold turn is completely fine when you have a draw. Your draws is only a part of a range of hands that goes to the turn. You will also have sets and pairs. You can sometimes raise his turn bet when he shows weakness.
vs regs, you can have zero flop raising range. That will protect your draws and make them more cautious to fire a turn barrel.

re scenario 2. Why did you 3bet vs a loose guy with a fold to 3bet of 20% and hardly folds to a cbet? I would prefer 3betting JT vs a nit with high ft3b.

I got that concept straight from No Limit Theory and Practice, in the section called "Playing Strong Draws on the Flop". I see what you're saying. But I think there's room for your perspective and Sklansky and Miller's. For example, if opponent will keep betting the size of the pot with top pair but will fold to a big raise, your best play may be to move in with a combo draw.

Obviously it's player dependent. I know one lady who does that with sets to protect her hand. I wouldn't raise her because she's likely to have it and I wouldn't have fold equity.

It is important that we be precise when thinking about poker arguments and poker concepts.

The situation in which you describe is DIFFERENT then the situation I describe. If you read what I said, I said "when we have no fold equity"

The situation you are describing and that Sklansky and Miller describe are situations in which we do have fold equity. And I've said, "when we have fold equity then you can barrel or raise..."

but when you have NO fold equity it is incorrect to barrel and raise and the correct play is to draw if you have the correct direct/implied odds to draw.

It's important that you understand exactly what I'm saying and the exact part of your argument that I am saying is incorrect...

Yeah I think we're on the same page. You assumed "zero fold equity" and I mentioned fold equity in both posts.

FWIW, this exchange motivated me to check the actual text of NLTAP (and not just my outline). The authors have like 3 pages of algebra on this.