all hands were played at rush.

villan is 15/13/5.6agg, 3bets about 4% of time, and his 4b range is 2.3%. 763 hands. haven't really seen him do anything crazy until this hand.





villan is 16/13/2.5agg, 3bets 7% of the time,and his 4b range is about 5%. 655 hands. haven't seen him do anything crazy until this hand.





ok so i had the goods this time, but what are we doing if we have something like AK/QQ/JJ type hands? are we just folding b/c we expect them to be so strong here?

the hud tells us general info about villan types and tendencies, but it doesnt tell us how villan is feeling at a certain moment. he can easily be tilting and be doing this w/ worse hands, and i think we lose a lot of value if we give villans too much credit for a hand.

this hand is the same villan as hand 1. because i caught him spazzing like crazy in that hand, i decided to play the hand like this.





so how do we know if these tight nits are doing this with worse? any ideas on how to catch them in the moment? or is my sample size on both villans too small to consider them nits? my idea is to cut down on tables just really focus on villan tendencies, see if he is tilting on other tables/etc. or is there just no way to found out?

sample size is certainly large enough to be fairly certain that at least their VPIP/PFR and probably 3bet are pretty close to their actual values.

A few suggestions:

1. Refining stats: if the stats you listed are the only stats you have on your villains, you might consider adding some more to your HUD. E.g. cbet %, fold to cbet, AF per street, went to showdown/W$SD etc. Add some for the most common and/or most important situations you will find yourself in to help with those specific decisions. How many you want to add also depends on how many tables you play.
2. Stats only for this session: I don't know if you're using HEM or PT3, but at least in HEM you can display the villain's stats for the current session only. There may be a similar feature in PT3. This can give you some rough information about whether villain is playing a different style than normal.
3. Making notes: this is a very important one IMO. To really notice these situations you might have to cut down on tables.

HUDS are great for the information they give, but it's true we use them while making great assumptions.

We are assuming basically that this player has not drastically changed his game over the course of the sample. Basically the HUD cannot take into account their growth as players. Or that they may have a read on you!

Maybe this guy picked up an aggressive poker book last week and read it, and changed his game!

Even with 30,000 hands on a player. He might have been bad for the first 5,000, was break-even for the middle 20,000 games, and has been at his best for the last 5,000. How do these stats equal out? Misleading at the very least.

Filtering, Refining Stats, etc. Will all help of course, but you can't rely on them forever, but you can get a good idea of how they think about the game of poker based on these percentages.

maybe he just felt like a wee spew as we all do now and again

Or maybe he slowplays his monsters and only 3bets as semi-bluffs? Wouldn't that account for the same stats?

Or maybe he is being creative based off of your stats . He probably has the same number of hands on you and is possibly trying to outplay you based on him knowing that you know his stats . Ldo?

Well he is not a nit if he is jamming A7s or 4-betting J8
Also, be aware of your image at the table. Don't be surprised when someone 5-bet jams a weak hand when you have been 4-betting a ton(not saying you are).

HUD's are a supplement, remember that. Good players don't solely rely on their HUD, but it does help in decision-making. How much one player bases his assumptions or justifies them with a HUD is up to him or her.

I've run into similar situations that leave me baffled. The only explanation I can come up with is that this is the one time you ran into a spot where the nit spazzed. Sometimes people think they have this killer read and try to do something uncharacteristic of them and this is what you get. Funny thing is I see this a lot from nits. Like I guess they know they have a nit image and just want to steal a pot from you on occasion, so they use their image to pull a stunt like this.

Light 5betting at 10nl, games confirmed dead.

hud stats are just to give you a indication of someone general tendencies, if your using it for anything else in my mind it is faulty... people go on tilt and play differently, ppl play differently on factor conditions in general and if you are not aware of evertyhing the hud stats you have gained on someone will be faulty.. there is a reason multi tablers lose their edge compared to someone playing minimal tables or 1...

heres another example:

villan is 31/18/1.4agg, 69 hands. loose/passive.

i c/c because he is never betting a Q on the river, and the only Ax hand i see is Ah3h and maybe A7. you expect these types of players to check back a lot on rivers. are they just clicking buttons?

He simply bet because he had a pair. 90% of fish think like this, "oh I haz a pair, I spozed to bet with pairz!" They completely fail to understand what a value bet actually means. The way he saw it you "gave up" so he automatically bets any hand that isnt air. I'm sure for a brief fleeting moment he realized his mistake after a better hand called on an Ace high river, but then he probably looked at your hand and started thinking "pfft the mistake is his, he raised with Q9s". Dont worry about it.

A lot of these gay HH's are a reason why sometimes I play with no HUD at all. I prefer to play in a vacuum at times because it allows me to think in a "standard" situation, i.e. why the hell would anyone bet this river unless they double floated with ace high? Then I can act accordingly.

His bluff is actually not that bad since he has like 0 bluffs in his range. It really sucks that you have Q9h since that takes away heart combos that he could be bluffing w/. His bet sizing tells me he knew what he was doing too and not just being a donk that bets any pair. I think it is bad for him to turn 66 into a bluff here since no 10NL player is ever folding Qx here. Just make a note when this happens so you can snap call in situations like these.