How many poker players win in the long term? - Beginning Poker Questions

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How many poker players win in the long term?

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03-28-2010 , 04:35 PM

boat2p2

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 124

How many players are making a profit in the long term, playing poker?

I have been looking at sharkscope and on my sng level about 75% or more of the players I have looked at seem to be negative profit.
After 880 games I am about -$18 (minus) profit.

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03-28-2010 , 05:08 PM

TBobLP

can't finish

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 22,256

somewhere between 341-357 players will end up winning long term

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03-28-2010 , 05:12 PM

Aces Suited

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 3,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by TBobLP

somewhere between 341-357 players will end up winning long term

Just ran some numbers on this.

[x] confirmed.

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03-28-2010 , 05:14 PM

Azelia99

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 37

I can think of about 20 pretty easily. In other words, not a great many players will show a major profit, and by this I mean big money.

Last edited by Azelia99; 03-28-2010 at 05:16 PM. Reason: added a statement

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03-28-2010 , 05:19 PM

peanutym

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,560

Quote:

Originally Posted by TBobLP

somewhere between 341-357 players will end up winning long term

this sounds right.

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03-28-2010 , 05:39 PM

TeamTrousers

talks the talk

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 12,894

Quote:

Originally Posted by TBobLP

somewhere between 341-357 players will end up winning long term

Pretty sure I've seen this number quoted before, so it must be correct

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03-28-2010 , 05:57 PM

boat2p2

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 124

Irony, I love it.

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03-28-2010 , 08:16 PM

Leikman

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 524

PTR's Analysis tab might give u a little example of how people are doing at the stake you are playing, ofcource not accurate totally but the green dots sure are a pretty way of demonstrating.

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03-28-2010 , 08:37 PM

Max Guevara

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 335

Quote:

Originally Posted by TBobLP

somewhere between 341-357 players will end up winning long term

don't be worried about this tho. when the ecomony is fully up again its more like 433-498.

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03-28-2010 , 08:53 PM

#10

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

I'll give you a serious answer, as there are statistics available on this from several sources. If you take a large sample of all online players who have played at least 1000 hands, around 20-25% of them will be net winners. As you go up in hands played and as you go up in stakes, that number gets higher. At mid to high stakes it can approach 40%. And all of this is before rakeback.

A reasonable and conservative rule of thumb would be that a quarter of online players are winners.

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03-28-2010 , 08:59 PM

#11

JamesBJames

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 5,791

Quote:

Originally Posted by TBobLP

somewhere between 341-357 players will end up winning long term

This can't be right. How are you doing your math?

I got around 314.

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03-28-2010 , 10:07 PM

#12

BdBeatStyles

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 143

^^^ Where do you get these numbers from?

I've often heard 10% -winners, 60% -break even players, 30% -losing players

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03-28-2010 , 10:11 PM

#13

Never Win

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,316

I think it depends on the stakes. A high %age of ppl would be long term winners at 2NL, but not many ppl would be long term winners playing 5kNL.

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03-28-2010 , 10:14 PM

#14

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by Never Win

I think it depends on the stakes. A high %age of ppl would be long term winners at 2NL, but not many ppl would be long term winners playing 5kNL.

This is pretty much backwards. The highest percentage of losing players are at the lowest stakes (which should be obvious because winners move up). At nosebleeds the money just circulates around to a few dozen players and the majority of them are winning players because they also play lower stakes and crush it. They got the bankroll for nosebleeds from somewhere.

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03-28-2010 , 10:21 PM

#15

Never Win

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,316

Quote:

Originally Posted by spadebidder

Yea, I do. My bad, I am such a fish.

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03-28-2010 , 10:23 PM

#16

SheepMoose

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,172

I think around 20% of players will be up lifetime, but they won't be winning.

5% of players (or something tiny) will win long term. The other 15% will be up but only from grinding rakeback/bonuses and breaking even.

Maybe 20% is too high a statistic though?

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03-28-2010 , 10:23 PM

#17

SovietRussia

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,214

Quote:

Originally Posted by BdBeatStyles

^^^ Where do you get these numbers from?

I've often heard 10% -winners, 30% -break even players, 60% -losing players

fixt

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03-28-2010 , 10:28 PM

#18

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by SheepMoose

The stats say otherwise. Almost surely over 20% of all online players are net winners before rakeback and bonuses. Lots of misinformation goes around about how rare online winners are.

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06-21-2013 , 07:15 PM

#19

knircky

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,097

Quote:

Originally Posted by Never Win

I think it depends on the stakes. A high %age of ppl would be long term winners at 2NL, but not many ppl would be long term winners playing 5kNL.

How do you come to this conclusion? I would think it is just the opposite as there is practically no rake at 5knl and very high rake at 2nl.

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06-21-2013 , 08:26 PM

#20

kvnd

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,237

I play the lowest steaks on my site (I have to accumulate 40 buy ins before I move up) and I am the largest winner at those steaks on the site, I love looking up my opponents on poker table ratings and I find it hard to believe over 10% here are winners.

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