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Old 06-18-2009, 09:15 AM   #1
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How many hands does it take to make a stat worthwhile?

Currently my HUD only appears after 30 hands on a player, at which point I'm happy to start considering their VP$IP/PFR (on the low side, but it's just the starting point).

I was wondering what thresholds I should consider for other stats? In particular;

AF
CBet flop
fold to cbet flop
call 3bet (on each street)
WTSD & W$SD

If my threshold for VP$IP is 30 hands, can I mathematically calculate a threshold for some stats? (ie VP$IP is affected every hand, but 'cbet flop' only changes for each flop the player sees, so it could be 30 hands times the %flops seen maybe?) - not that I want to that precise, but I'd like to know a general rule of thumb for knowing when a stat is worth considering or not...
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Old 06-18-2009, 12:12 PM   #2
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Re: How many hands does it take to make a stat worthwhile?

honestly, i dont take the numbers for granted until I get about 100 hands, but you can make some pretty accurate assumptions based on a smaller sample size.

If you've seen 6-7 hands on a guy and he has played them all, he's either running super hot or super loose. Combine that with some information you might see from a showdown on his part and you've got your answer usually.
A few limps in early position might not mean much, but I NEVER limp early position, so pegging someone who does this at all is important (again even better with some showdowns if you're paying attention).

I guess the point is small sample sizes work with additional information of showdowns and even small trends can be extrapolated usefully.
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Old 06-18-2009, 01:16 PM   #3
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Re: How many hands does it take to make a stat worthwhile?

Things like call 3bet and W$@SD are things that require time, this goes for AF as well. You need about 100 hands to be accurate, unless he has like AF of 10 after 50 hands, then you have a rough idea.

Cliffnotes - Stats that are changed by every hand need about 50 for rough idea, situational need at least 100, 200 preferably.
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Old 06-18-2009, 01:23 PM   #4
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Re: How many hands does it take to make a stat worthwhile?

iirc, the current Concept of the Week in Micro Full Ring is about PT3 and HEM. I think it was in that thread that it was mentioned after 40 hands, VPIP/PFR are mathematically almost spot on, with shifts most likely due to changes in play style.

There's also some info on how to use it with a very small amount of hands in certain cases (10 or so).
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Old 06-18-2009, 04:01 PM   #5
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Re: How many hands does it take to make a stat worthwhile?

My program starts kicking out stats at 10 hands, but no matter what the numbers say i consider the number of hands I have on them.

It doesn't really matter to me because stats are only suggestions and only an account of the information you have on them currently, be that 10 hands or 10,000.

I feel that once you get over 50 hands though, you have a pretty good idea of how they play, be it from the stats or just observing the table and what they show down (or that they don't go to showdown almost at all).

But it's obvious that the more hands, the better.
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Old 06-18-2009, 04:59 PM   #6
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Re: How many hands does it take to make a stat worthwhile?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gorckat View Post
iirc, the current Concept of the Week in Micro Full Ring is about PT3 and HEM. I think it was in that thread that it was mentioned after 40 hands, VPIP/PFR are mathematically almost spot on, with shifts most likely due to changes in play style.

There's also some info on how to use it with a very small amount of hands in certain cases (10 or so).
Those concepts of the week are pretty good! I play 6max, so have never really bothered looking at the FR forum. Good job you mentioned it or I would have missed all that...
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Old 06-18-2009, 05:31 PM   #7
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Re: How many hands does it take to make a stat worthwhile?

ok, after a quick read there, this seems to be the answer to my question
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