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Old 04-21-2017, 06:38 AM   #1
newbieguy
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How to figure out long term winrate?

Hi,

Last week, I played online poker which is something I had not done for many years.

I played 8.800 hands 6max NL100.

My winrate was 12 EV bb/100.

I was wondering how to understand such a result.
The questions behind that are :
-basically, does this mean I am a winning poker player in this field?
-does this mean that if I continue playing the same way in the same players pool, etc.. I'd still get a positive winrate?
-what might be the effect of variance with such a sample?

I found a poker variance calculator at pokerdope. I don't know if I can paste the link, so i won't, but feel free to add it if it's allowed.

So I filled the form :
Winrate in BB/100 : 6 (I think 12 EV bb/100 means 6 EV BB/100, right?)
Observed winrate in BB / 100 (optional) : I didn't change anything because I don't know what they mean
Standard deviation (»?«) in BB / 100 : 38 (found in HEM)
Number of hands to simulate : 8800

So they say :

70% confidence interval (»?«)
[172 BB, 884 BB]
[1.95 BB/100, 10.05 BB/100]

95% confidence interval (»?«)
[-185 BB, 1241 BB]
[-2.10 BB/100, 14.10 BB/100]


So I assume this means that if the environment factors remain the same (my game doesn't change, the field doesn't change, etc...) :
- there's 70% chance that my long term EV winrate is between [1.95 BB/100, 10.05 BB/100], so [3.9 bb/100, 20.1 bb/100]
- there's 95% chance that my long term EV winrate is between [-2.10 BB/100, 14.10 BB/100], so [-4.40 bb/100, 28.20 bb/100]

Am I right?
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Old 04-21-2017, 07:38 AM   #2
suitedjustice
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

I believe that's for 8800 hands only? Try changing it to 880000 hands and see what you get.

Edit: I checked it out and it looks like the graph extrapolates predictions over a large number of hands. I think, though, that 8800 hands isn't enough to give the calculator the sample size it needs to give you meaningful results. Try bumping the thread below with your question.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...u-run-1648950/

Last edited by suitedjustice; 04-21-2017 at 07:48 AM.
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Old 04-21-2017, 07:52 AM   #3
fidstar-poker
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Hi OP.

You have posted this in the wrong forum. I have moved it across to the beginners forum. You will get better answers there.
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Old 04-21-2017, 08:22 AM   #4
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

But variance is 1/3rd of what we do here!
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Old 04-21-2017, 09:01 AM   #5
madlex
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by suitedjustice View Post
Edit: I checked it out and it looks like the graph extrapolates predictions over a large number of hands. I think, though, that 8800 hands isn't enough to give the calculator the sample size it needs to give you meaningful results.
Isn't that what the confidence interval is for?
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Old 04-21-2017, 09:15 AM   #6
suitedjustice
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex View Post
Isn't that what the confidence interval is for?
Yes, and it's going to give you a very wide range of possibilities if you feed it a small beginning number of hands, was my rather clumsily-made point.
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Old 04-21-2017, 09:27 AM   #7
ArtyMcFly
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

I think the Pokerdope variance simulator uses BB to mean big blinds, not Big Bets (or 2x bb).

Was your standard deviation really only 38bb/100? It is almost certainly going to be a fair bit higher once you've played a larger sample.

If your numbers turned out to be accurate (12bb/100, SD of 38bb/100), then Pokerdope says the 95% confidence interval is 3.9 - 20.1bb/100. Just from experience though, I know that this sample size is largely meaningless. I've had 10k samples where I won at over 20bb/100, but I'm closer to 5bb/100 in reality, and I've come across several bad players that were winning for 5000 hands that I'd expect to lose at -10bb/100 in the long term.
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Old 04-21-2017, 09:35 AM   #8
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
I think the Pokerdope variance simulator uses BB to mean big blinds, not Big Bets (or 2x bb).

Was your standard deviation really only 38bb/100? It is almost certainly going to be a fair bit higher once you've played a larger sample.

If your numbers turned out to be accurate (12bb/100, SD of 38bb/100), then Pokerdope says the 95% confidence interval is 3.9 - 20.1bb/100. Just from experience though, I know that this sample size is largely meaningless. I've had 10k samples where I won at over 20bb/100, but I'm closer to 5bb/100 in reality, and I've come across several bad players that were winning for 5000 hands that I'd expect to lose at -10bb/100 in the long term.
I thought it was pretty much impossible but I guess it might be correct if he is using EV bb/100 which has a lower standard deviation.
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Old 04-21-2017, 10:33 AM   #9
newbieguy
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
Was your standard deviation really only 38bb/100? It is almost certainly going to be a fair bit higher once you've played a larger sample.
it's 38.5 EV BB/100
so 77 EV bb/100

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
I think the Pokerdope variance simulator uses BB to mean big blinds, not Big Bets (or 2x bb).
You're right. They mention it in the comments.
If I replace all the BB input by the bb input, I get :

70% confidence interval
[334 BB, 1778 BB]
[3.79 BB/100, 20.21 BB/100]

95% confidence interval
[-389 BB, 2501 BB]
[-4.42 BB/100, 28.42 BB/100]

I still don't really understand these numbers.

They say : "Your actual results over the simulated amount of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first interval shows absolute numbers, the second translates those into BB/100, showing the 70% confidence interval for your winrate."

This is not clear at all imo.
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Old 04-22-2017, 09:18 AM   #10
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by newbieguy View Post
95% confidence interval
[-389 BB, 2501 BB]
[-4.42 BB/100, 28.42 BB/100]

I still don't really understand these numbers.

They say : "Your actual results over the simulated amount of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first interval shows absolute numbers, the second translates those into BB/100, showing the 70% confidence interval for your winrate."

This is not clear at all imo.
I think your understanding of the meaning of the numbers was correct in the first post. If you play another 8800 hands, there's a 95% probability that the result will be somewhere between a loss of 3.89 buy-ins and a profit of 25 buy-ins. Your "true" winrate is very likely to be between minus 4.42bb/100 and plus 28.42bb/100. Clearly, that's a huge range of possibilities (since you might turn out to be a small loser, or a massive winner), which goes back to the original point that there is a helluva lot of variance in poker, and the short term is relatively meaningless.
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Old 04-23-2017, 05:54 AM   #11
TedHawkins
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Re: How to figure out long term winrate?

You cannot really figure it out. You assume that yours and your opponents skill level remain constant, but that's not true in reality.
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