How to estimate the length of a MTT? - Beginning Poker Questions

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How to estimate the length of a MTT?

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10-08-2009 , 01:41 PM

SmokeyS

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 449

How many hours will a tourny of x people with y starting stacks and a blind structure z last? (rough estimation principles really apprecitated more than massive calculations requireing a super computer but those are cool to know too)

Also how can this be applied to live mtts?

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10-08-2009 , 02:37 PM

Johnny2Gunnz

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 665

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Originally Posted by SmokeyS

Easiest way (if you play online) is just to look at the runtime of similar completed tourneys. I'll leave it to the more seasoned MTT'ers to give you a solid equation.

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10-08-2009 , 03:22 PM

JaxSaint

adept

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,092

Arnold Snyder tackled this in Poker Tournament Formula 1... its basically estimating how long the blind levels are, how many hands per orbit, and figuring how long someone could go without being blinded out if they never played a hand. This can be used to estimate time until final table/completion, etc... I really suggest just checking out his chapter, he explains it extremely well. It also comes in handy for determining how much skill vs. luck is involved in a tournament solely on its structure. Great stuff, no way I could summarize it all here.

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10-08-2009 , 04:12 PM

quirkasaurus

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,701

from my experience and observation online:

in a 4400 player tournament ( horse, limit ),
i made it to 14 and it took over 7 hours.

in a 2200 player tournament ( stud, limit ),
i made to 2nd and it took over 8 hours.

in NLHE,
a 45 player tournament can be over with in under 2 hours, typically.
a 180, 90 around 3 hours.

the recent 65,000 player pokerstar world record tournament was still going after 13 hours, i believe.

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10-08-2009 , 04:15 PM

Truckin

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 2,601

Quote:

Originally Posted by quirkasaurus

Nice brag

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10-08-2009 , 06:01 PM

PantsOnFire

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 5,720

It's actually quite easy. First, you need to calculate how many chips will be in play. If it's a freezeout, that's easy, if it's a rebuy, that's a little more difficult but you can look at past rebuys to get an idea. After you have the total chip count, divide that by 2 and that will be the average stack size when the tourney is heads up.

It is highly unlikely that a blind level which gives the average stack just 10BBs will be played through. So the blind level before that is the likely one where it will end. Now just figure out how long it would take to get to the blind level.

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10-08-2009 , 06:04 PM

Jetto

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 10,886

Daily Dollar takes roughly around 4 hours to cash.

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