This is a demanding question and would take time to respond to, but I would really appreciate the help. I think this post shows I'm trying to put in the work and just am struggling for direction.
OK. I have my flopzilla installed and have played with it a little. I have pokerstove. I have converted my ignition hands and dumped them into my PT4. I have worked on my hand reading. I am starting to grasp some basics about balance and GTO. It is making sense when I hear hand reviews by pros that are talking about balancing their c-bet bucket hands and their check back hands with value and bluffs. I am ready to start doing work off the table.
Great! Now how do I actually do this on my own!?! See hand below:
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 116.48 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BB: 156.32 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
Hero (CO): 101.8 BB
BTN: 94.96 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB,
BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q
A
fold,
Hero raises to 3 BB,
fold,
fold,
BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) A
3
T
BB checks,
Hero???
In a vacuum with no villain info (I understand that later I can add reads and play exploitative but for now I just want to work on the baseline), how do I answer these questions:
What is the right c-bet % on this flop, and how can I determine what that would be on other flops? What is the thought process to be able to answer this question when I work on hands on my own? I know this varies by board type, but how do I take the answer from question one and start to determine the correct bet sizing? Using this hand as an example, could someone explain how I might come up with a balanced strategy for my entire range? Here were my thoughts so far:
On this texture I thought a good starting point would be to c-bet about 66%, with 2/3rds being bluffs and 1/3rd being value. (This is just a guess based on what I have heard to be fairly normal c-bet range. Help!) My range is roughly like this: 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A8o+,K9o+,QTo +,JTo
From the big blind I estimate his calling range to look something like this: 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s, A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
Looking at how this hits his range with flopzilla it seems he'll have top pair+ 35%, and another 35% he'll have other pairs from mid pair to weak pairs. There are also a few gutshots and back door flush draws. My thoughts would be that when I am bluffing I'm trying to get him to fold underpairs and possibly middle pairs by the river. When I'm betting for value I'm targeting top pair weaker kicker type of hands. And I'm trying not to stack to sets. My range hits this board well, with me having top pair+ 29% of the time, and other weaker pairs 44%.
So if I want to continue 66% I need 22% of my range to bet for value. I was thinking I'd bet my sets, and my top pairs with weaker kickers. I would balance this by bluffing my gut shots (although maybe K-Q/K-J has showdown value???) and my back door flush draws (42% or so), then probably barreling again when I pick up equity with my back doors, or checking back turn and bluffing some rivers to fold out his unimproved hands at that point. If I get raised or the pot gets too big I can continue with my sets, but let my weaker top pairs go to a lot of aggression. My sizing would probably be about 3/4 pot since I am targeting weaker pairs and some of those could float for 1/3-1/2 pot.
My checkback range would include two pair (A10 and A3s), and AK, AQ. The idea behind this is twofold. First, I am crushing the board and blocking the hands I want to get value from (weaker Aces, middle pairs). He's less likely to have those hands. If he has a weaker ace or a middle pair I'm unlikely to get three streets. But if I check back the flop villain might call two streets on turn and river with marginal holdings I am beating. Also, if he takes the lead on the turn I have pot controlled to the point that I can call down two streets and catch bluffs. If I get raised on the turn when I bet these hands are strong enough to call a turn raise and river bet since I checked behind flop. I should mention I'm not too worried about a free card since if he isn't likely to improve.
Again, I know all of this could change with reads.
2+2 gurus, please enlighten me! What feedback do you have on my general questions and my thought process here?