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Help me with some math? Help me with some math?

06-24-2012 , 05:57 PM
I'm trying to learn and understand some poker math. Please help me with this problem from limit holdem:

LP steals, SB folds, I call in BB. Flop comes down. I check, he bets.

I'm getting 5.5:1, right? So, if effective stacks were this one bet, I'd need to win 15%, right? Here's the part I'm struggling with: But what if effective stacks were many bets, how often do I have to win then? The answer is always more than 15%? Is there any literature on this subject?

To call flop, turn, and river I'm getting 9.5:5(1.9:1), right? So, I'd need to win 34% if I know opponent would bet flop, turn, and river? Does the fact he won't always bet turn and river mean I need less than 34%? I have a feeling I'm missing something. I have a feeling it means I need more! The answer is always more than 34%?!

Is it fair to say to call flop I'd need between 15% and 34% chance of winning (usually showdown equity as I won't be able to bluff better than him out of position). That's the conclusion I would have come to however I think this is lower than what most good players suggest. So, I'm missing something? I'm missing reverse implied odds? I understand things get complicated when I put in a raise, etc - I'm just interested in calling math.

Thanks for any help!
Help me with some math? Quote
06-24-2012 , 06:14 PM
I am kind of ignorant of limit betting structure(i'll assume preflop and flop are 1big blind, and turn river are 2big blind), but I'll give it a shot.

Assuming LP raises 1 bb preflop. You are only getting 3.5:1. You are paying 1bb to win 2bb from LP .5bb from SB and 1 from your BB giving 3.5 total. You need equity of at least 22%.

As the flop comes down the pot is now 4.5bb. if he bets 1bb and you call now you are immediately getting 5.5 to one.

On the turn the pot is now 6.5. And he bets 2bb. You are getting 4.25:1
On the river the pot is now 10.5. He bets 2bb. You are getting 6.25:1

If you want to look at it expecting to call everything he bets. You are expecting to win: 3.5+1+2+2=8.5. and you are paying 1+1+2+2=6. So you need about 42% equity call to the end.

I am not a pro at this stuff, but that is how I see it. Someone please correct me if I made any errors or am misleading OP at all.
Help me with some math? Quote

      
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