I'm trying to learn and understand some poker math. Please help me with this problem from limit holdem:
LP steals, SB folds, I call in BB. Flop comes down. I check, he bets.
I'm getting 5.5:1, right? So, if effective stacks were this one bet, I'd need to win 15%, right? Here's the part I'm struggling with: But what if effective stacks were many bets, how often do I have to win then? The answer is always more than 15%? Is there any literature on this subject?
To call flop, turn, and river I'm getting 9.5:5(1.9:1), right? So, I'd need to win 34% if I know opponent would bet flop, turn, and river? Does the fact he won't always bet turn and river mean I need less than 34%? I have a feeling I'm missing something. I have a feeling it means I need more! The answer is always more than 34%?!
Is it fair to say to call flop I'd need between 15% and 34% chance of winning (usually showdown equity as I won't be able to bluff better than him out of position). That's the conclusion I would have come to however I think this is lower than what most good players suggest. So, I'm missing something? I'm missing reverse implied odds? I understand things get complicated when I put in a raise, etc - I'm just interested in calling math.
Thanks for any help!