One worrying trend that I have noticed in my sessions, is that most of profits come from one or two big hands, supplemented by a number of folds and small bets... followed by a much higher number of smaller losses. This reach, often, the point of becoming breakeven, or even lower.

I try to play an ABC-type of poker... but after analysis most of my losses come from pot shots being called, cbetting being called, River bets being called by any bottom pair, Villains slow playing their TPBK, etc.

I have taken the screenshots below to illustrate. They come from my Tracker:

https://www.screencast.com/t/2tpzldOF5EQs

This second picture is from last month, i.e. when I started playing online poker again:

https://www.screencast.com/t/hfa1BpRKN

Now, I accept that part is being caused by variance, I cannot avoid that.

However, I am trying to find a way to decrease what losses I may control to an 'acceptable' degree - without becoming fit-or-fold or playing way too passive. Some level of bluffing IS profitable, even in 2NL.

What would you recommend for me?

- Avoid Cbetting OOP at all?
- Cbetting IP only on the dryest of Flops?
- No more potshots, except on scare cards?
- No more calling from the blinds unless it is a high pocket pair?
- If missing the Flop, any flop, checking folding unless I improve or gain significant equity?

Thanks!

I tried to tighten my game and hands significantly, especially out of position and from the blinds.

No more cbets OOP unless on a dry flop and against a reg, going for big hands,, avoiding marginal hands as much as possible, etc.

It went much more better. this time. It could be only a good run, but I have shown a significant profit this time around:

https://www.screencast.com/t/jat4yIa3P

This kind of thing (play a lot of small pots, most of which you lose, play a couple of big pots that are often just coolers) is fairly standard and very common for ABC/regnit players. You literally can't win every hand, and you have to do a lot of folding while you grind your way to the one hugely +EV pot that saves/ruins your session. Sometimes the big pots all come in a hurry and poker seems easy. Sometimes you go days without making a set/flush etc and it feels horribly unfair. You obviously don't win exactly 5bb every 100 hands. There's a ton of variance.
When you get all the rungood, it's possible for all your lines (green, red and blue) to be above zero, but sometimes you have the session (or week) from hell where you can't win any pot above 5bb and there's literally nothing you can do about it.

Doing things like abandoning c-betting entirely isn't a great idea. You can reduce your variance by keeping the pots smaller, but the corollary is that you also restrict your ability to win big pots. The only way to make it so that you have fewer losing sessions is to simply get better at poker overall. Remember that even the absolute crushers have days when they can't get anything going. Learning to understand and accept the variance is really hard.

Thank you very much for your post, Arty. I agree that stopping c-betting altogether is not a good idea. However at 2NL players are floating so often with bottom pair or gutshots, that I really have to select my spots hard to c-bet.

I am currently hitting a spot of negative variance. I have lost one or two buy-ins in each the last two sessions. Even though some stacking are obviously coolers or Villain having the top of his range, like hitting a better set, lower set hitting its two-outer, Villain making a straight flush on the River on a board with a four-flush, etc, it does make me question my play, making me wonder how long it'll last and if it'll destroy my future winrate. What if I go bust at 2NL?

I was talking about this with a buddy this morning. I think everyone struggles with this. Joe Ingram tweeted something about it a few weeks ago. Words to the effect of "Isn't it amazing how you can win for years, but a couple of sessions of runbad makes you think you'll never win again?"
A big problem with poker is that positive/negative feedback on your play is masked by massive amounts of variance in results, by which I mean you can play well and lose, and you can play badly and win, but it's hard for an incompetent/inexperienced player (or a mental game fish like me) to separate results from ability. As humans we're hardwired to be results-oriented. When we lose, we start thinking "I must be doing something wrong", so we sometimes change our play, even though the way we played was working before the downswing. It's really hard to deal with. FWIW, I've got my own troubles with this at the moment. Last year I had an extended heater. This year, I'm downswinging like a bastard, and it's almost entirely due to luck (I think/hope). To my penguin brain, the downswing makes no sense ("I thought I was a crusher"), but that's what poker variance is like. It messes with your head. You have to keep playing solid (and not tilt off your roll) when the bad periods arrive. If you try radically altering your play in some sort of desperate attempt to break out of the downer, you're basically just tilt-spewing.
One old tip you can try is to play "breakeven poker" for a few sessions, with an emphasis on folding in tough spots (so that you reduce your potential losses and the potential tilt) but I think it's better to just take a break and do some studying or something unrelated to poker that's a bit more fun/relaxing. You cannot force yourself to win. Improving takes time.