Hand Analysis - Beginning Poker Questions

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09-22-2016 , 10:50 PM

hOoLiGaNNNNNNN

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 470

Live 1/3 NL, effective stacks 150-400

Hero is SB with Ah9s

MP limps
MP1 limps
folds to Villain in BTN who limps

Hero raises to 15, BB folds and other 3 call

Flop: 863h (Pot $65)

Hero bets $30
MP folds
MP1 folds
Villain raises to $60 (Pot $155)
Hero jams for $125 more

Turn/river run out dry and Villain shows QhJh

Villain was playing tight but starting to see more action. This was obviously a semi-bluff that didn't go right. I believe I had the equity to shove though:

EV = (30)*(405) - (70)*(125) = +33.5

Is there any reason to just call here? Or is this a WAWB situation and I'm either folding/shoving?

Last edited by hOoLiGaNNNNNNN; 09-22-2016 at 11:01 PM.

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09-23-2016 , 01:17 AM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,986

I think your EV equation is in error. First, I assume you win only if you hit the flush and the chance of doing that is about 35%. An ace pair could win but not likely with a tight opponent raising on the flop.

If I interpret your bet numbers correctly, your win amount is 155+65= 220 and your investment is 125. That leads to an EV of -4.25. Your win amount of 405 includes your 125 investment and double counts villain’s raise of 60.

On that basis, a call is probably not a good idea absence any other factors.

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09-23-2016 , 07:59 AM

hOoLiGaNNNNNNN

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 470

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

Thank you. That makes much more sense. I knew I was thinking about this wrong.

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09-23-2016 , 09:03 AM

Fatboy54

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 3,876

On another note A9o in the small blind is pretty horrible to bloat the pot with in a limpcallfest.

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09-23-2016 , 09:38 AM

tiltninja

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,937

Yea I almost exclusively limp SB except with hands where I'd be happy to play Top pair multiway

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09-23-2016 , 10:49 AM

hOoLiGaNNNNNNN

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 470

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fatboy54

On another note A9o in the small blind is pretty horrible to bloat the pot with in a limpcallfest.

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Originally Posted by tiltninja

Yea I almost exclusively limp SB except with hands where I'd be happy to play Top pair multiway

Thanks for the tips. I usually throw away or limp with A6o-A9o so I'm pretty disappointed with the pre-flop play.

AP though, shoving is still more EV than calling... right?

Adjusting my EV with stahmanhal's input (pot was 155 after Villain raised me 30) here are the differences:

*Calling EV: 0.19*(155) - .81*(30) = +5.15
**Shoving EV: 0.35*(280) - .65*(125) = +16.75

*chance of hitting it on the turn
**assuming opponent calls my shove

I also gain some fold equity here by shoving over the top that I don't get from just flatting.

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09-23-2016 , 10:54 AM

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

This hand was taken straight to the butcher. The raise pre from the SB A9o is a big mistake and led to this mess. Why did you jam over a minraise, which is pretty much signaling the nuts, from a tight player on the flop? You're getting pretty much direct odds to see one more card and you are very likely to win more when you make the flush, a call seems much better than shoving and never getting folds.

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09-23-2016 , 11:46 AM

hOoLiGaNNNNNNN

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 470

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

Indeed. I am going to remember this hand for a long time. I learned an important lesson.

Need to choose my bluffing spots more wisely.

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09-24-2016 , 05:04 AM

chad0x001

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 8,558

In live 1/3 you'd win more by not bothering to bluff, being patient and betting your strong hands. Keep it simple.

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09-24-2016 , 05:22 AM

#10

Sil3ntness

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,304

<--- Points to location.

No seriously that raise was horrendous.

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