Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh
Bolded part is monsters under the bed. I'll hammer home the point that when you flop a set, you're supposed to stack your opponent. If you stacked sometimes yourself, that's life. Playing scared is -EV.
If you get squeezed you fold.
But again, there's nothing wrong with folding small pairs OOP, since most of the time, you're just going to check-fold post flop, and if the raiser is a nit, you won't stack him very often when you hit your set, but thise guys are few and far between at 5NL.
Its not about mmonsters under the bed its about less EV than you might think.
Its like this:
88% you get no set and the value of your hand is very minimal with 22 OOP. Sometimes you win unimproved, sometimes you pay 1 street only to showdown on the river vs his unimproved 55 etc.
out of the 12% you do get a set:
8% you get only little value, 1 street on average because your opponent didnt hit.
3% you get 2-3 streets of value because he has TPTK, 2 pair or a draw which does not hit.
0.5% you get his stack because he got TPTK and overplays it so manages to lose his stack even though he is IP.
0.5% you lose your stack because he got a better set or drew out on you.
You can say its monsters under the bed, but really the chances of an extremely positive outcome arent that huge either. And when the stack to pot ratio is big, your opponent should only get his stack in when he does in fact beat you. You are OOP, he is the one to decide when stacks are going in.
And getting squeezed 10% of the time preflop is also a significant extra cost.