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Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Is this a good fold - or a thin call?

09-27-2014 , 12:03 PM
Not sure if my fold on river was ok. No reads on villain.

Villain was 34/22 over 600 hands. Wasn't sure what to put him on by the river, was thinking TP with a better kicker than me or a set, or maybe he is just betting as he sees my check on river weak, when really it was for pot control - should I have checked turn and bet river maybe? Always find these situations difficult.

Thanks


    Pacific, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #31066911

    Hero (CO): $18.98 (94.9 bb)
    BTN: $26.91 (134.5 bb)
    SB: $20.50 (102.5 bb)
    BB: $20.55 (102.8 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with Q K
    Hero raises to $0.69, BTN calls $0.69, SB calls $0.59, BB folds

    Flop: ($2.27) 2 6 K (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $1.70, BTN calls $1.70, SB folds

    Turn: ($5.67) 5 (2 players)
    Hero bets $4.25, BTN calls $4.25

    River: ($14.17) 7 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $10.62, Hero folds

    Spoiler:
    Results: $14.17 pot ($0.70 rake)
    Final Board: 2 6 K 5 7
    Hero mucked Q K and lost (-$6.64 net)
    BTN mucked and won $13.47 ($6.83 net)



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    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-28-2014 , 10:55 AM
    i would bet the river as well but prepared to fold to a raise

    i would make the call. i would expect him to raise AK+ (which has you outkicked) preflop and certainly raise the turn already. while a set mgiht be possible, it seems a waste not to bet the turn either.
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-28-2014 , 11:00 AM
    What hands do you think villain has that beat you here?
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-28-2014 , 02:15 PM
    I would probably bet/fold the river as well. It prevents him from bluffing because he senses weakness to your check and I guess you could be getting value from an extreme calling station with worse kings. He could have a busted flush draw but its just hard to play OOP
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-28-2014 , 03:07 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Killme37
    I would probably bet/fold the river as well. It prevents him from bluffing because he senses weakness to your check and I guess you could be getting value from an extreme calling station with worse kings. He could have a busted flush draw but its just hard to play OOP
    Why would we want to prevent him from bluffing?
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-28-2014 , 03:32 PM
    x/c would probablly make more sense than b/f. However x/f isn't a bad line if you have reads he doesn't bluff here.

    Straights make up fairly small % of his range, if we have no reads, it's much more likely he is bluffing a missed FD, or valuebetting 2pair. Of these scenarios the missed FD is more likely scenario.


    PS. Buy in for 100bb..
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-28-2014 , 07:19 PM
    89dd is like the only hand you're behind otr that could make sense. I b/f half pot otr.
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-29-2014 , 03:02 AM
    AK 3bets ip, idk how this isn't a call. Why did you even x river if you planned on folding? It was a good x to induce missed draws

    Last edited by TensRUs; 09-29-2014 at 03:03 AM. Reason: but you folded
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-29-2014 , 02:15 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Freewill2112
    Why would we want to prevent him from bluffing?
    Thats true. That was a fishy comment i made. But his bet on the river puts us in a really tough spot doesnt it?
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-29-2014 , 02:26 PM
    I would bet $5 or $6 and fold to a re-raise. This size of bet looks like a value bet, so if villain comes back over the top, he will have a straight most of the time, and AK sometimes when a weak villain wants to hit the flop before betting any further rounds.
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-29-2014 , 06:07 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Killme37
    Thats true. That was a fishy comment i made. But his bet on the river puts us in a really tough spot doesnt it?
    Not really. We need to be right about 30% of the time, and we should be against all but the most weak-tight of villains. I'm not saying that checking is clearly best, maybe we make more by betting, depending on how many weaker K's or if he can make it to the river with 99-JJ and if he'll pay off with them. But not wanting to be bluffed is not a good reason to check in this case.
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-29-2014 , 11:03 PM
    Folding river as played is insane. I think c/c is better than b/f because you need to get called by KJ- to get value and there's an obvious busted draw out there. With a hand like AA you can bet for value because you beat any Kx and don't block any of them. If villain thinks you are a bluffer and does not bluff much you can probably bet KQ for value too but I wouldn't use that as the default. Unless you are facing a huge nit, c/f to a 2/3 pot bet is a serious mistake - you are very likely good more than the amount you need to be and if you c/f KQ you are basically never calling vs. a bet on the river.
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-30-2014 , 02:35 AM
    Great replies chaps, see that I played this really badly now!
    I was thinking at the time ' wow that is a biggish bet, he could have a better kicker, two pair, straight etc.''
    Whereas my hand reading was pretty bad.
    He isn't going to have AK as he would raise that pre
    Sets are unlikely, not that many combos of 66,22 plus he might rr those on flop or turn.
    Straight unlikely, he 8d9d only hand he would play here, and again very specific.
    Far more likely he has a K with a weaker kicker than me.
    Checking with the intention of xc is fine but xf is plain daft, I can see that now.
    Thanks all
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-30-2014 , 02:57 AM
    he had K 7 off on the button. nice soul read , soul reader man. i would have called but thats def. a value bet and he had k 7. you saved money.
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-30-2014 , 04:07 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Freewill2112
    Not really. We need to be right about 30% of the time, and we should be against all but the most weak-tight of villains. I'm not saying that checking is clearly best, maybe we make more by betting, depending on how many weaker K's or if he can make it to the river with 99-JJ and if he'll pay off with them. But not wanting to be bluffed is not a good reason to check in this case.
    Makes much more sense to me now. And i do think we are good 30% of the time. So definately calling as played. Its a fine line between b/f and c/c. If we have reads then maybe it will sway to one or the other.
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-30-2014 , 04:41 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Killme37
    Makes much more sense to me now. And i do think we are good 30% of the time. So definately calling as played. Its a fine line between b/f and c/c. If we have reads then maybe it will sway to one or the other.
    Guess that's the thing, we only need to be right nearly 30% of the time.

    Oh and like the soul read thing! Hope you were right!
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote
    09-30-2014 , 04:53 PM
    Another thing: our hand strength is under repped given our line
    Is this a good fold - or a thin call? Quote

          
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