Quote:
Originally Posted by Dm1223
I normally play 1-2nl. Usually only able to get to local casino about 2 or 3 times a month. Casino was very crowded so I took a seat at 2-5nl table. Been playing about 45 min. Ute+1 opens for $20. She has played very few hands. Seems like a good player. I feel like she is very strong. 3 others call. I'm on the button with AdQd. LB calls. Flop is 2c4d5d. LB leads out for $100 and it folds to me. I feel like he has a made hand of some kind and I am only getting 2 to 1 to call so I fold. I can't stop thinking that I played this hand poorly but I'm not sure of all the reasons I played it poorly.
So if I'm reading this right, pre flop action made the pot $125. UTG+1, 3 callers, you and the SB.
UTG+1 has been playing tight - so is she betting 4x the BB with A3? a Small Pair? Not impossible but more likely she's bet with a strong ace or a high pair.
Her near pot bet suggests she sees the draws and is betting to protect her hand, reinforcing my thinking that she's probably on a pair. $100 into a $125 pot - but you've got the FD, the SD and the over draw with a good kicker if the ace hits. If you figure her for a high pair you're probably fading some of your overpair outs but still - flush draw for 9, gutshot for 4, and maybe 3 instead of 6 over pair outs? That's in the 16 neighborhood, which is giving you 32% or almost perfectly 1:2.
Calling 100 to win 225? You're in the perfect spot.
So now what? If you call here you're almost certainly advertising your draw. A call is mathematically justified but if you call the pots now $325 and you'll still be 1:2 for the river if the turn doesn't hit you, and if the turn hits your action dries up.
However if you know you'll call the turn if the turn misses, then you want to start thinking about the rest of the hand. If you'll be calling the turn anyway then you now start thinking in terms of seeing the next two cards - which means now your 16 outs put you at 64% equity. Heck, just your flush draw and gutshot alone put you at +50% for the next 2 cards.
And while the turn hitting the flush or the straight will kill the action, if the villain has an overpair here you've got a decent chance of getting a call.
So get it in! You're the favorite if you can see the river - raise it.
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Edit - I just realized it was the LB not UTG who led out with a donk bet. That doesn't change the math IMO - but a weak ace is definitely a possibility if the LB is looser, or a smaller pair.