Flopped straight, river pairs the board.... - Beginning Poker Questions

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Flopped straight, river pairs the board....

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08-22-2017 , 12:55 AM

DumbosTrunk

Verified Coach PLO5

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 7,326

Hi all,

Turbo tournament, blinds 300/600, stacks of villain and me about equal at around 24,000. Villain is a tight/nitty reg. Villain completed in SB. Limped around to me in BB and I have 2c4c. I check my option.

Flop: Ad-3d-5s.

Villain bets 1,200. I raise to 3,600. Villain calls.

Turn: 6h.

Villain checks, I bet 4,500. Villain check-raises to 9,000. I call.

River: 5h.

Villain goes all in for 12,000.

Diamond draws missed on this river, but sets (33, 66) just became boats, as did A-5. I also no longer have the nut straight as 4-7 is beating me. Would you call villain's jam?

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08-22-2017 , 01:04 AM

Tutejszy

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,633

villian only has 12k more after minraising turn, you should just shove there. As played, you have to call the river, but dont expect to be good very often

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08-22-2017 , 02:37 AM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,765

Super easy gii on the turn, call river as played

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08-22-2017 , 10:38 AM

3K_TOM17

grinder

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 451

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tutejszy

villian only has 12k more after minraising turn, you should just shove there. As played, you have to call the river, but dont expect to be good very often

Indeed, just shove if not deep stack. In many ccases you want to avoid scare card/unknown scenario falls and it makez you probably make incorrect decision.

Sent from my ASUS_Z00VD using Tapatalk

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08-22-2017 , 12:46 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

To put some numbers on the river all-in decision:

The pot is offering you a little better than 3 to 1 to call 12K. You need 25% equity.
Estimated villain range is {AA, A3, A5, A6, 33, 55, 66 } = 3+9+6+9+3+1+3=34 combos.

You beat A3, A6 = 9+9 =18 combos => EQ>50%, so call is +EV if you give equal weight to each combo. Equity is somewhat lower if you weight AA and other winners higher but still very likely to have equity > 25%, so still a call.

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08-22-2017 , 01:35 PM

DumbosTrunk

Verified Coach PLO5

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 7,326

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

What if I give greater weight to the combos that beat me due to villain's tight/nitty image? Then it's looking much closer, no?

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08-22-2017 , 01:47 PM

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,446

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

Estimated villain range is {AA, A3, A5, A6, 33, 55, 66 } = 3+9+6+9+3+1+3=34 combos.

I don't think most players would complete AA in the SB after a bunch of limpers. OTAH, completing 42s and 74s sounds more reasonable to me.

I also don't think a tight-nitty reg would turn his counterfeited A3 in a bluff on the river.

Overall it's probably still a call but I would assume that we are more in the 30% equity range than the 50% range. I don't think folding would be a big mistake. Getting it in on the turn is the right play obv.

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08-22-2017 , 02:01 PM

DumbosTrunk

Verified Coach PLO5

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 7,326

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixfour

Super easy gii on the turn, call river as played

Others have noted this as well. Is just calling and seeing the river a lower-variance play - in the event the board pairs on the river, for example? It's not going to happen that frequently (maybe 20% if villain has a set, less if two pair?), but it still gives me a chance to get away from the straight if I need to. I know getting it in when I'm an 80% favorite is great, but that 20% lurking in the background scares me. It's the feeling I get when I'm all-in preflop with AA against an underpair. I know I'm in great shape but it's nowhere near 100% equity.

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08-22-2017 , 02:38 PM

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,446

You can always wait for the nuts on the river to commit all your chips. But if you are too worried about another player sucking out on you, maybe you would have more fun playing a different strategy game without a big luck factor.

All we can do is help you to try to find the EV-maximizing play and you have to decide what you make out of that.

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08-22-2017 , 03:39 PM

#10

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk

Others have noted this as well. Is just calling and seeing the river a lower-variance play - in the event the board pairs on the river, for example? It's not going to happen that frequently (maybe 20% if villain has a set, less if two pair?), but it still gives me a chance to get away from the straight if I need to. I know getting it in when I'm an 80% favorite is great, but that 20% lurking in the background scares me. It's the feeling I get when I'm all-in preflop with AA against an underpair. I know I'm in great shape but it's nowhere near 100% equity.

That mindset is going to be a solid barrier to winning at poker.

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08-22-2017 , 04:38 PM

#11

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,765

There's an old saying, if you can't lose you can't win much

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