Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
Estimated villain range is {AA, A3, A5, A6, 33, 55, 66 } = 3+9+6+9+3+1+3=34 combos.
I don't think most players would complete AA in the SB after a bunch of limpers. OTAH, completing 42s and 74s sounds more reasonable to me.
I also don't think a tight-nitty reg would turn his counterfeited A3 in a bluff on the river.
Overall it's probably still a call but I would assume that we are more in the 30% equity range than the 50% range. I don't think folding would be a big mistake. Getting it in on the turn is the right play obv.