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Flopped Set, now what? Flopped Set, now what?

05-20-2017 , 07:31 PM
What's up, guys?
I have a question regarding how I played this hand and what to do on the river. So I get pocket 8s in the BB and call the BTN raise who has a 47 Attempt to steal value. We are getting the 20:1 implied odds here plus an additional limper in the SB. Flop the set on a very wet board and continues to get wetter.

I am interested in whether I played this hand correctly based on the board texture and whether or not I made the correct river decision. Thanks, BP



Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 104 BB (VPIP: 16.22, PFR: 13.51, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 37)
BTN: 149.6 BB (VPIP: 31.11, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 46)
SB: 101 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (BB): 99 BB
UTG: 100.6 BB (VPIP: 24.44, PFR: 19.63, 3Bet Preflop: 11.22, Hands: 280)
MP: 106.4 BB (VPIP: 26.23, PFR: 19.67, 3Bet Preflop: 16.00, Hands: 61)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8 8

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) T 8 J
SB checks, Hero bets 5.6 BB, BTN calls 5.6 BB, SB calls 5.6 BB

Turn: (25.8 BB, 3 players) 9
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 16.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 16.4 BB

River: (58.6 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN bets 37.2 BB

what do we do here? this player was pretty loose when the session started but toned it down as the sesh went on. By the river any 7 or Q combo beats me, any JJ, 99,TT, KK hand has us beat, but he could have an overpair or continued with a two pair down to the river. It's a tough spot and I would like some help so I know what to be doing in the future.
Flopped Set, now what? Quote
05-20-2017 , 08:14 PM
I let this go because most people don't 2 barrel this board.

Also, I don't lead flop, I prefer x/c or x/r.
Flopped Set, now what? Quote
05-20-2017 , 09:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
I let this go because most people don't 2 barrel this board.

Also, I don't lead flop, I prefer x/c or x/r.
Okay. Just wondering why you don't lead flop? To let draws bluff or just to be on the safe side?
Flopped Set, now what? Quote
05-21-2017 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OilSpill
Okay. Just wondering why you don't lead flop? To let draws bluff or just to be on the safe side?
Because you are not the pre-flop raiser. Checking the Flop allows Villain to cbet for aggression and put one-street of money voluntarily in the pot that he might have not, had you led into the pot. From there, you can either check-call or check-raise. I would definitely check-raise this Flop.

Donk-betting here immediately tells that you've hit something good, and you might scare hands away that would have bet in for bluff.
Flopped Set, now what? Quote
05-21-2017 , 03:51 AM
Also, if you are going to donk, im guessing it was for value and protection, well then bet bigger,.
Flopped Set, now what? Quote
05-21-2017 , 07:49 AM
I like the flop donk as a free card on this texture is horrible ,theres obviously loads of worse in villains range that will call. The lead disguises your hand more than a x/r.
Horrible run out. River is a fold. Your set isnt much more than a bluff catcher. At this level opponents rarely play this aggressively on wet broadway boards unless they have it themselves. I doubt villain value bets worse than a better set otr and it's a straight most of the time.
Flopped Set, now what? Quote
05-21-2017 , 08:17 AM
Hello OilSpill! I also play on the Winning Poker Network micro so perhaps we shall run into each other on the tables.

I also agree with leading out here. This is a very wet board texture and it's true that the pfr will likely c-bet this, but with his range here by c/calling you don't really know where you stand in the hand if he continues to barrel. You also want to price out the draws since this is a mw pot. Were it just HU, I might lean more towards a c/c or a c/raise here, but multi-way there is just too much of a chance of giving everyone a free card to draw out here by checking and you want to price them out. You are advertising strength here and turning your hand face-up, but in reality at micro-stakes there is no need to balance this. If your opponents have a draw, they will call, no matter what they think you have because most of the time they aren't even thinking about what you have to begin with.

The only thing I would change is your bet sizing. You don't want to offer good odds to callers here. If you bet say 1/2-2/3 pot, and one person calls, any other person in the pot is getting about the right odds to now call and continue with any draw on this board. I would bet much larger here, either a pot-sized bet or even going for an overbet. Like I said, betting this large into this many players basically screams you have a monster, but at these stakes everyone else is thinking "OMG I have a straight draw" and can't wait to call any bet. Even if the turn sucks, you still get more value here by betting larger during the other times here that a safer turn card comes and you can continue.
Flopped Set, now what? Quote
05-21-2017 , 12:07 PM
My line would be check-call, check-call, check-fold. (Sometimes check-raise flop, if the SB folds to villain's likely c-bet.)
By donking, you lose your customer a lot, but when he calls (or worse, both call), you get into problems on a ton of runouts.
Flopped Set, now what? Quote
05-21-2017 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
(Sometimes check-raise flop, if the SB folds to villain's likely c-bet.)
Horrible flop to cbet against SB/BB. Especially BB will have a ton of hands in his range that hit the flop after getting 3.5:1 preflop.

I wouldn't expect BU to "likely c-bet" here if he isn't totally incompetent or has some solid reads on the blinds that they fold too much.
Flopped Set, now what? Quote
05-21-2017 , 03:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
Horrible flop to cbet against SB/BB. Especially BB will have a ton of hands in his range that hit the flop after getting 3.5:1 preflop.

I wouldn't expect BU to "likely c-bet" here if he isn't totally incompetent or has some solid reads on the blinds that they fold too much.
SB's range is waaaaaaaaaay stronger on this flop than BB's.

Fine with leading against weak players. Against stronger players it does nasty things to your checking range.
Flopped Set, now what? Quote

      
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