Ev=(%W*$W)-(%L*$L)

This calculation is simply messing with my head, any short cuts here? Most of my problem is calculating %W.


when punching in numbers it seems to be a pretty exact science. what are your takes?

The mechanics of calculating W% are pretty straight forward, and yo can get good at estimating it using an equity calculator. the tricky part is narrowing down your opponent to as tight and accurate a range as possible, and then calculating W% based on that range.

A simple example, let's say I am facing a tight opponent preflop, I have JJ, I open, he 3 bets, I four bet, and he shoves. Based on my experience, I know he is playing only KK+, or AK. So I know there are 16 combos of AK compared to 12 combos of AA or KK, and that I am 55% against AK and 20% against AA or KK. Using a weighted average (because 16 and 12 are close, I basically cheat and just take a regular average of 55 and 20, then nudge it upwards) I estimate my W% against his range is around 40%.

Do this exercise often enough, you will begin to see common patterns.

To follow-up the above post, here are the approximate probabilities for some standard matchups which you should memorize.

Standard Matchups (approx. probs)

Matchup…. Probability ….. Odds for
Pair vs. 2 undercards 0.83 4.9 : 1
Pair vs. lower pair 0.82 4.3 : 1
Pair vs. 1 overcard, 1 undercard -offsuit 0.71 2.5 : 1
Pair vs 1 overcard, 1 undercard - suited 0.67 2.0 : 1
Pair vs. 2 overcards (race) 0.55 1.2 : 1
2 overcards vs. 2 undercards 0.63 1.7 : 1
Dominated - e.g., AK vs K2 0.73 2.7 : 1
Sandwich e.g. K7 vs Q8 0.59 1.4 : 1
Intermix e.g., KT vs Q9 0.63 1.7 : 1

You get the Win percentage by running your hand against a perceived range, using a (free) tool like Equilab.

e.g. Suppose you had AhAs on 8h 7h 4c and you think villain will play for stacks with straights (65s), sets (88, 77, 44), overpairs (JJ-99) and a handful of flush draws (KQs-T9s), then Equilab can calculate your equity for you.

Board: 874
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
Hero **56.56%**56.02%***0.54%*{ AhAs }
Vill **43.44%**42.90%***0.54%*{ JJ-77, 44, 65s, KhQh, QhJh, JhTh, Th9h }

56.56% would be the number you use for the %W in the EV calculation. (And 100 minus 56.56% would give you the %L. You could also just look at villain's equity, which is 43.44% in this example). Since you have more than 50% equity against that range in that example, you don't need to know the precise EV. Being a favourite automatically means it's profitable.

Whenever a range has more than a few possible hands it becomes near impossible to calculate on the go and you need to rely on experience. The more you run hands vs ranges the more can you estimate how well your hand does in a specific spot.

%W means your equity, when you talk about equity/or your %W preflop, OTF, or OTT it is both your raw pot equity and your nut equity

OTR, only nut equity matters and raw pot equity doesn't matter because there are no more cards to come you are either 0% or 100% (hand vs hand).

Ex:
So if you have 23s on a board of As4s9c, 8h, Kd what is your %W OTR vs villain's range.

Just dumb it down for urself and go through each variable logically one by one..., it's not about punching in the numbers to a equation it's about understanding it and it's not like u need to be super smart to do that