This is from some article I was reading on Upswing Poker.

I'm terrible at math so maybe I'm missing something here.

If the crunched numbers work out to about 24% why is he saying we need 31% equity to call? Here's a screenshot of what is written.

https://ibb.co/efFwyQ

My eyesight is getting bad. Can you point out where he is saying you need 31%?

It looks like the writer of the article pretty clearly made a mistake. He counted the $5.50 bet an extra time because the $12 current pot size includes that. Equity needed is 31%, not 24%.

Yeah that's what I thought too but don't trust myself to work out an equation.
Thanks!

Funny, its like a free content thing that's supposed to get you interested in paying for the training services they offer, I guess, and they're already make a confusing mistake in the opening paragraph.

https://www.upswingpoker.com/vs-3-be...tegy-revealed/

31% is right. They got 24% by misapplying their own formula. In the denominator, if you're going to add 2x the call size like they did, then the pot size can't include the $5.5 call size. Alternatively, if you're going to include that in the pot, then you only need to add it once.

Method 1: break-even equity E = 5.5 / (6.5 + 2*5.5)
Method 2: E = 5.5 / (12 + 5.5)

Myself, I prefer the 1st method because I like to treat it the same as a single bet of 5.5 into a $6.5 pot. Then the same formula applies to all situations.

If villain's bet is a/b of the pot, then the equity you need is a/(2a + b)

In this case, the fraction is 11/13 so E = 11/35

However, preflop equity isn't the important factor. The article goes on to say that by talking about "equity realization", but imo that's an unnecessary concept.

The problem with some hands isn't that they can't realize their equity (they can, just go to the showdown no matter what, ez game!), it's that realizing your equity will cost more than just the preflop bet, and usually won't be worth it.

You probably already know that when facing a non-all-in flop bet and considering chasing a draw, you can't use your flop all-in equity (the Rule Of 4), because you'll likely face a turn bet. It's the same thing preflop. You're likely to face a flop and/or turn bet, so you can't use your preflop equity. Instead, if you feel like nerding out, you have to look at how your hand will hit the flop compared to Villain's range and think of how it will play out in various scenarios.

In my experience 90% of the free Upswing articles have errors in them. The website/graphics guy that converts the coaches' articles into web-format articles seems to be either underpaid, overworked, or just not very good. I got fed up reporting the mistakes after a while. (The most common error is of the type where the article says something like "I would put JTss in my bluffing range", when the ten of spades is on the flop.)

P.S. Note that someone (not me) spotted the same error as OP and posted it as a facebook comment (see the foot of the article) way back in April. The website guy said "You're right. There was a typo in the formula" on the same day, but hasn't bothered to fix it.

Sooooo RIO > Upswing?

Not that anyone cares, but I find the term "current pot size" in the equation additionally confusing, because at no point in the hand is this number EVER the current size of the pot.

To get this number, you add blinds, preflop aggressor's 2bet, and the money that the 3bettor would add to the pot IF he flatted, which he never does. So this amount will never be the actual "current pot size."

Yeah true but don't forget about implied odds.

I like to simplify things and say $5 is ~ half of $12 which equals 50%. Therefore 50% gives you odds of 2/1...33%