Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensfan
1/3 Live game and not having any info on villain is the real problem here, but this is the spot we are in sometimes when you run into a hand like this in the first orbit.
$296 Effective stacks.
Villain limps in MP, folds to Hero on the button who raises to $16 with AKo, folds around to limper who make the call.
Flop is AK6 two Hearts. Villain checks, Hero bets $25, Villain calls.
Turn is an offsuit 10. Villain bets $80.
Hero?????
How often does Villain have the straight here versus an overplayed two pair or even getting out of line with a flush draw?
Does Hero call or fold or ship it in?
His call of your flop bet doesn't really do much. He might assume that you are just c-betting. you can look at it a few ways
From a range perspective, what hands could he have that he would call on the flop. AA,KK,66, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, Axhh, QJhh, maybe as low as 99+ or KQ, KJ combos. Using that range as an approximation, you are ahead of around 75% of his hands, with maybe 7% of his holdings making a flush draw ( and only an 18% chance of that draw being made). Approximately speaking, your hand is good against this range 70 to 75% of the time, so...raise all in
From a standpoint of interpreting his actions-I don't think he donks out with the nuts here, though he might bet a very strong hand that is vulneable to a draw, like AA, KK, 66, or TT. More likely, he is betting a weaker two pair or top pair, good kicker with a redraw (AJ or AQ seem likely) So....raise all in
I think if he has the nuts, he lets you bet out the turn, and then gets it in on the river. His betting pattern could suggest a set, but there are not many set combos out there.
Get it in, and if you get coolered, you get coolered.