Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Call?  Fold?  Ship it?

08-11-2017 , 08:40 PM
1/3 Live game and not having any info on villain is the real problem here, but this is the spot we are in sometimes when you run into a hand like this in the first orbit.

$296 Effective stacks.

Villain limps in MP, folds to Hero on the button who raises to $16 with AKo, folds around to limper who make the call.

Flop is AK6 two Hearts. Villain checks, Hero bets $25, Villain calls.

Turn is an offsuit 10. Villain bets $80.

Hero?????

How often does Villain have the straight here versus an overplayed two pair or even getting out of line with a flush draw?

Does Hero call or fold or ship it in?
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-11-2017 , 10:15 PM
Generic game stats...what is the profile of a typical player at this casino? If you know, that is something. If you don't...... well, that is still something.

Create a PF limp/call range.

Adjust/tighten range for flop action; adjust/tighten range further with turn donk.

MUBS is a terrible thing.
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-12-2017 , 12:57 AM
Not folding as described. Age/sex/race are reads BTW.
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-12-2017 , 01:30 AM
Surprisingly often. There's 16 combos, QJ can definitely be part of villain's limp/calling range from mp and you block a lot of other potential two pair hands.
You'r hand is also somewhat under repped and this can easily be A6/K10 or a bunch of one pair hands with a fd. I think I'm flatting the turn bet. Definitely not folding.
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-12-2017 , 02:25 AM
Ship it. He usually picked up equity of some sort or got there. AJ/AQ/AT/KT/Qxhh/Jxhh/Txhh are all hands he could show up with that you beat.
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-12-2017 , 09:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
Ship it. He usually picked up equity of some sort or got there. AJ/AQ/AT/KT/Qxhh/Jxhh/Txhh are all hands he could show up with that you beat.
+1

Usually when I'm in this spot my AK is good. Yes, some of the time he will have QJ, in which case at least we aren't drawing dead (even though 4 outs is quite slim). But as browni said, it's most often a lower 2 pair or pair + gutter type hand (sometimes gutter with the FD). Throwing in all the hands browni suggested (which is reasonable), plus monsters such as AA, KK, TT, 66, and QJ, your equity is still good. Given his pf line, AA and particularly KK seem highly unlikely, but people do weird things all the time in poker. Interestingly enough, QJ (the nuts) isn't even your biggest fear. You have 4 outs against that hand. AA is the worst! You're drawing dead against rockets. Poker can be funny that way. Just ship it and pray!

Last edited by Beasting; 08-12-2017 at 10:07 AM.
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-12-2017 , 10:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
Ship it. He usually picked up equity of some sort or got there. AJ/AQ/AT/KT/Qxhh/Jxhh/Txhh are all hands he could show up with that you beat.
+2

If hes got the draw you want him to go ahead and put his money in now before he misses it on the river. 66 is well within his range as well and if he hit the set then he just hit the set and you've still got outs. My money would be that he has one of the hands Browni mentioned
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-13-2017 , 08:45 AM
For those waiting for the spoiler:

Spoiler:
I tanked and folded, villain did not show. I spent rest of session hating myself for the fold as he continued to overplay TPTK type hands into bankruptcy.
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-13-2017 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
Ship it. He usually picked up equity of some sort or got there. AJ/AQ/AT/KT/Qxhh/Jxhh/Txhh are all hands he could show up with that you beat.


+ 3


Verzonden vanaf mijn iPhone met Tapatalk
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-13-2017 , 10:27 PM
Ship it. I no longer support Alex Torreli, but he had a really good hand of the day video about this exact spot. It's usually a villain trying to give you his price for continuing with his draw. Ship it
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-14-2017 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensfan
1/3 Live game and not having any info on villain is the real problem here, but this is the spot we are in sometimes when you run into a hand like this in the first orbit.

$296 Effective stacks.

Villain limps in MP, folds to Hero on the button who raises to $16 with AKo, folds around to limper who make the call.

Flop is AK6 two Hearts. Villain checks, Hero bets $25, Villain calls.

Turn is an offsuit 10. Villain bets $80.

Hero?????

How often does Villain have the straight here versus an overplayed two pair or even getting out of line with a flush draw?

Does Hero call or fold or ship it in?
His call of your flop bet doesn't really do much. He might assume that you are just c-betting. you can look at it a few ways

From a range perspective, what hands could he have that he would call on the flop. AA,KK,66, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, Axhh, QJhh, maybe as low as 99+ or KQ, KJ combos. Using that range as an approximation, you are ahead of around 75% of his hands, with maybe 7% of his holdings making a flush draw ( and only an 18% chance of that draw being made). Approximately speaking, your hand is good against this range 70 to 75% of the time, so...raise all in

From a standpoint of interpreting his actions-I don't think he donks out with the nuts here, though he might bet a very strong hand that is vulneable to a draw, like AA, KK, 66, or TT. More likely, he is betting a weaker two pair or top pair, good kicker with a redraw (AJ or AQ seem likely) So....raise all in

I think if he has the nuts, he lets you bet out the turn, and then gets it in on the river. His betting pattern could suggest a set, but there are not many set combos out there.

Get it in, and if you get coolered, you get coolered.
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote
08-15-2017 , 11:59 AM
Tough spot if you are under-rolled or are naturally cautious with your chips. No one wants to shove into a set/straight here.

Was the Ah on the board? Typically pot-sized Donk bets are defensive bets or huge combo draws. So I'm expecting 2-pair, sets, straights or flipping against the combo draws. If no Ah on board then the door is more open to AhXh combos that you crush right now.

You aren't very deep at 100BB to start the hand. The only hand that has you drawing dead is AA. I'm at least calling if not shoving .. you might even see some folds to your shove.

You probably are going to check most Rivers through, so V has actually put more into the pot on Turn than you may have bet otherwise, so call and evaluate or just shove. GL
Call?  Fold?  Ship it? Quote

      
m