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 07-02-2012, 11:19 AM #1 stranger     Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 4 Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate? Whenever I read poker strategy I often come across statements like "We only need to be right 38% of the time" and "The bluff only needs to work 29% of the time to show a profit". How does this work? And how do you calculate this? Could someone please give me a few examples that would be easy to understand?
 07-02-2012, 11:30 AM #2 veteran     Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Polarizing my folding range Posts: 3,498 Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate? You can't really calculate it without having perfect knowledge of your opponent's range and tendencies (read: never). You can make an estimate of it based on your read of his range - for instance, for the former one, if you were ahead of 38% of his range it would be a +EV call (not necessarily a correct one as raising may be better).
 07-02-2012, 11:34 AM #3 old hand     Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,976 Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate? I think it's a basic pot odds question really? If we have a draw and we're shipping 1\$ into a 1\$ pot for example we need to hit our draw 33% of the time to be profitable If we bluff 1\$ into a 1\$ pot and we lose if he calls we need him to fold 50% of the time for the bluff to be profitable Think it's Equity - Pot Odds, if that number is we're making profit On the river it's pretty simple calculation (Chance to win when called + Chance of him folding(and this is what TheDefiniteArticle means, you probably never will be able to guess these 2 numbers because you need perfect knowledge of your opponents range and tendencies to make these assumptions)) > Pot odds and you're making a profit Last edited by Frostyice; 07-02-2012 at 11:48 AM.
07-02-2012, 11:46 AM   #4
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: on top of Manhattan Chase
Posts: 6,647
Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Frostyice I think it's a basic pot odds question really?
+1

The Mathenoobics of Poker - Pot Odds

07-02-2012, 11:50 AM   #5
stranger

Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 4
Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DiamondDog
Ok thanks, most of this I understand, the pot to bet ratio for hitting a draw for example.

But how do you turn this around?

For example if you decide to bluff the river with a shove, doesn't that change those "ratios" completely?
How do you calculate how often it will be profitable?

Is that really all there is to it? Looking at the ratios?

(sorry if my choice of words is bad, noob here)

 07-02-2012, 11:54 AM #6 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: on top of Manhattan Chase Posts: 6,647 Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate? If you bluff, you're still getting odds. The only difference is, instead of villain setting the odds by choosing their bet size, it's you who's setting the odds by choosing how much to bluff. So, if the pot is, say, \$5, and you bet \$3, hoping villain folds, you're giving yourself odds of 5:3 (risking 3 to win 5). So you need to win (i.e. you need villain to fold) 3/(5+3) = 3/8 = 37.5% of the time for your bluff to be profitable. General case: pot is \$p you bluff \$b you're giving yourself odds of p:b so you need villain to fold at least b/(p+b) of the time for your bluff to be profitable. This all assumes that you lose anytime you get called, and can only win the hand by villain folding. BTW, Welcome to the Forums.
07-02-2012, 12:03 PM   #7
stranger

Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 4
Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DiamondDog General case: pot is \$p you bluff \$b you're giving yourself odds of p:b so you need villain to fold at least b/(p+b) of the time for your bluff to be profitable.
I see. Got it, thanks.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DiamondDog BTW, Welcome to the Forums.
Thank you!

 07-02-2012, 12:48 PM #8 Entremanure     Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Too late. Axe in the minivan Posts: 8,720 Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate? DiamondDog wrote an EXCELLENT series on poker math for new players. Part 1- Intro and Probability Part 2- Combinatorics Part 3- Betting Odds Part 4- Pot Odds Part 5- Equity (Rule of 2 and 4) Part 6- Implied Odds/ Part 7- Expected Value GL
 07-02-2012, 09:05 PM #9 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: May 2008 Location: broken monitor land Posts: 3,599 Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate? Lets say you are playing limit and the pot on the river is \$100, and you are up against a tight player, now if the bet is \$6 and you decide to fire out at him then you need him to fold 6/106 which is like 5% of the time to show a profit.
 07-02-2012, 09:15 PM #10 The Situation     Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq Posts: 7,842 Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate? In case it's not clear, you estimate it when playing, but check you maths when analyzing.
07-02-2012, 09:50 PM   #11
The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Wolverine> sexually ambiguous acorn
Posts: 3,928
Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Frostyice I think it's a basic pot odds question really? If we have a draw and we're shipping 1\$ into a 1\$ pot for example we need to hit our draw 33% of the time to be profitable If we bluff 1\$ into a 1\$ pot and we lose if he calls we need him to fold 50% of the time for the bluff to be profitable Think it's Equity - Pot Odds, if that number is we're making profit On the river it's pretty simple calculation (Chance to win when called + Chance of him folding(and this is what TheDefiniteArticle means, you probably never will be able to guess these 2 numbers because you need perfect knowledge of your opponents range and tendencies to make these assumptions)) > Pot odds and you're making a profit

Ummm \$1 to win \$1seems like 50% to me.
Unless maybe you're talking about bluffing the \$1 and getting called. I'll assume that's what you meant.

 07-02-2012, 09:53 PM #12 The Situation     Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq Posts: 7,842 Re: Being correct an x % of the time, how to calculate? He means pot of 1 unit facing a pot bet. You always need 33% or less equity unless you're facing an overbet. CEV says You always call if you have >50% equity.

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