Whenever I read poker strategy I often come across statements like "We only need to be right 38% of the time"
and "The bluff only needs to work 29% of the time to show a profit".

How does this work? And how do you calculate this?

Could someone please give me a few examples that would be easy to understand?

You can't really calculate it without having perfect knowledge of your opponent's range and tendencies (read: never). You can make an estimate of it based on your read of his range - for instance, for the former one, if you were ahead of 38% of his range it would be a +EV call (not necessarily a correct one as raising may be better).

I think it's a basic pot odds question really?

If we have a draw and we're shipping 1$ into a 1$ pot for example we need to hit our draw 33% of the time to be profitable

If we bluff 1$ into a 1$ pot and we lose if he calls we need him to fold 50% of the time for the bluff to be profitable

Think it's Equity - Pot Odds, if that number is we're making profit

On the river it's pretty simple calculation (Chance to win when called + Chance of him folding(and this is what TheDefiniteArticle means, you probably never will be able to guess these 2 numbers because you need perfect knowledge of your opponents range and tendencies to make these assumptions)) > Pot odds and you're making a profit

+1

The Mathenoobics of Poker - Pot Odds

Ok thanks, most of this I understand, the pot to bet ratio for hitting a draw for example.

But how do you turn this around?

For example if you decide to bluff the river with a shove, doesn't that change those "ratios" completely?
How do you calculate how often it will be profitable?

Is that really all there is to it? Looking at the ratios?

(sorry if my choice of words is bad, noob here)

If you bluff, you're still getting odds.

The only difference is, instead of villain setting the odds by choosing their bet size, it's you who's setting the odds by choosing how much to bluff.

So, if the pot is, say, $5, and you bet $3, hoping villain folds, you're giving yourself odds of 5:3 (risking 3 to win 5).

So you need to win (i.e. you need villain to fold) 3/(5+3) = 3/8 = 37.5% of the time for your bluff to be profitable.

General case:
pot is $p
you bluff $b
you're giving yourself odds of p:b
so you need villain to fold at least b/(p+b) of the time for your bluff to be profitable.

This all assumes that you lose anytime you get called, and can only win the hand by villain folding.

BTW, Welcome to the Forums.

I see. Got it, thanks.

Thank you!

DiamondDog wrote an EXCELLENT series on poker math for new players.


Part 1- Intro and Probability

Part 2- Combinatorics

Part 3- Betting Odds

Part 4- Pot Odds

Part 5- Equity (Rule of 2 and 4)

Part 6- Implied Odds/

Part 7- Expected Value

GL

Lets say you are playing limit and the pot on the river is $100, and you are up against a tight player, now if the bet is $6 and you decide to fire out at him then you need him to fold 6/106 which is like 5% of the time to show a profit.

In case it's not clear, you estimate it when playing, but check you maths when analyzing.

Ummm $1 to win $1seems like 50% to me.
Unless maybe you're talking about bluffing the $1 and getting called. I'll assume that's what you meant.

He means pot of 1 unit facing a pot bet. You always need 33% or less equity unless you're facing an overbet. CEV says You always call if you have >50% equity.