Hello, sorry for a confusing title. What I am trying to figure out is : is there a way to mathematically determine how much above average does one have to be to be breakeven after rake.


An example:

Let's say I am playing 100 man sng 1$ (90c+10c rake). If my abilities are exactly average among playing field, on average in 100 games I would finish in each of 100 positions (that is 1st, 2nd, 3rd ... 99th, 100th) which would net me (100$ in buy ins - winnings (90c * 100) -10$. In other words I would be exactly breakeven in my profits if not the 10$ rake per 100 games.


Is there a way to determine, what my average winrate would be if my poker skill level was among the top 25% players ?
OR RATHER
How much better than the average do I have to be to beat the rake ?

I tried figuring it out myself, but Being the best in the field of 100 players, does not guarantee that I will finish first or in the money every time. Which would lead me to conclude that there is no mathematical way to determine the breakeven % line mentioned above, because skill level and winrate are for ever changing and can never be figured out precisely ?

Consider a 9 man sit’n’go with a 50-30-20 prize structure and a 9+1 entry structure. Assume if you get in the money, you are equally likely to finish first, second or third. For an ROI of 0 (including the fee of 1) you need to be ITM 37.0% of the time. That is 0.037/0.333 = 11.1% higher than the average prior ITM of 33%.

You suggested that since skill level is forever changing, one can never meaningfully answer these types of questions. Yes win rates change but I would think they often reach a state where they kind of plateau so that any changes are relatively minor. And, there is always the idea of a current or now result.

I figured that I should look at players Return on investment ROI if there is one. If 10% rake is per game, 10% roi would be breakeaven. Maybe not exactly what I was asking myself, but It kind of explains what I tried to understand

By the way ? is there a way I could find player ROI of specific tournaments ?

ROI is profit/investment where the investment includes the rake. So, by this definition, breakeven is a zero ROI.

right. thx