River:(81 BB, 2 players) 5 Hero bets 35 BB, CO raises to 98 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 25 BB and is all-in
Spoiler:
CO shows K A (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 71%, Flop 87%, Turn 76%) Hero shows Q A (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 29%, Flop 13%, Turn 24%) CO wins 192.6 BB
Kind of tilted there because could make up my mind what to do here.
This is quite a tricky one. Pre-flop is standard (except I'd pot it to 10bb).
That flop connects very strongly with some hands in villain's range (QQ/JJ/TT, QJs/JTs, possibly AK), reasonably well with some others (KQs, AJs, ATs) and very badly with others (he snap folds 88 or lower pairs and any SCs or suited aces that whiffed).
It's not the kind of flop where you can happily fire 3 streets and get called by worst on most runouts. (QJT is widely considered the "worst possible flop" for AA in a 3-bet pot, and the same problems AA has on this board apply to AQ).
I think if you bet it, you should go very small. If you're going to bet 1/2p or more with your range, then this combo should be a check, since it's in the middle of your range. The fat value hands are AK (16 whole combos!), QQ, JJ, TT, QJs, JTs. Even AA and KK should mostly be checked if you're going big, because betting big will fold out the hands they crush.
Just ask yourself on the flop "What am I trying to get value from that will call multiple streets?"
The turn might seem like a good card for you, but you didn't 'overtake' much that was beating you on the flop. You're still losing to straights, and sets just became boats. JTs got counterfeited, so it's unlikely to pay off now, and QJ/QTs also made boats. It's probably best to slow down and check-call, or hope it checks through (which will likely mean you have the best hand and can go for thin value on the riv).
On the river, you've got 60bb and the pot is 81bb, so you may as well ship it, but it's hard to find many worse combos that call. It's really just one combo of KQs, isn't it? I guess you could check to induce a bluff, but villain is very unlikely to do something crazy with ATs/AJs/KT/T9s type hands.
We've all been in ugly spots like that, so don't be too hard on yourself. Just think a bit more about the ranges on the flop. You've got many better hands to go for value with than this hand, so this one probably does better with a bit of pot-control (check-call down and you'll still lose most if not all of your stack when you're beat, but at least you give villain the chance to bluff). There's really no need to start firing off multiple bets with one pair (albeit it turned trips) on boards like this.
The back story was I play like 600 Hands and the biggest pots were like 3 and 4 that I folded.
Lot of 3bets and most pots didnt went pass the turn.
So got me really confused do I play to weak and let people pick on me or not.
Then on the turn it hit me when i went through the possible hands.
And let my ego make the river play like I am not going to check here and get bluffed out again.
But afterwards doing a review of it I still had no clue how to play that situation.
Could not decide how far I could go in that certain situation.
Like were is the spot where I get involved in it to much and where is the point where I should get out of it.
Right now I also feel I should checked the turn here, because most likely he would have checked to or slowed down because that queen was scary for most of the hands.
But during that hand I felt if I dont bet he is going to bet to much and I wont see the SD and maybe even the board could pair again or I could peel an ace and stack off.
flop is mandatory check/call in this spot, for reasons mentioned above. As a preflop agressor, you should be betting those connected boards with very polarized range. Yes, you do have more nutted hands than your opponent, but overall you're at a pretty big range disadvantage, assuming reasonable calling ranges for CO.
as played, river MUST be a shove - not betting your last 25bb here is extremely costly in the long run
I'm in the c/c flop camp. But by far the biggest mistake in the hand is the river play.
Betting under half pot with only 25bb behind leads to two possible outcomes:
a) He has you beat and will stack you
b) You have him beat but won't stack him
That's a situation you never want to be in. Absolutely never. If you think you don't have a +EV shove, bet/calling is almost never the right answer.
If you feel like 3/4 pot is too much to bet on the river, make it larger on the turn.
Had a crazy idea.
How about check/raise the Turn ?
If he checks behind I get a cheaper showdown.
If he bets I get a better All In then if I would bet the river, foldequity and outs for a FH sure its not much but should be something around 10-24 % combined even if he calls, so if I would decide to bet the river anyway it would make more sense.
on the turn, you have trips with top kicker, why would you want a cheap showdown? At this point you have a monster, just shovel as much money into the pot as you can, thanks to 2 queens on board there are tons of worse hands that can pay you off. If he has you beat, you're gonna lose a stack anyway. Checking the turn simply lets him see a cheap river with his bluffcatchers
like I said, you're not looking to lose the minimum once the turn hits, you're looking to win the maximum, you have trips top kicker in a 3bet pot. And checking because you want him to turn his bluffcatchers into a bluff for some reason is... optimistic. You can't just assume your opponents are complete idiots.
...you should shove river. There are tons of bluffcatchers, it's pretty easy to have 2 pairs on this board, not to mention weaker trips. You have 5 hands on the villian, you can't just assume he's a nit.
This is not a good flop for a default 3 bet flatting range and it's a good example of a spot where your hand is deceptively weak. Alarm bells should be going off when villain flats the turn bet. He rarely has a one pair hand here and J10 or Qx hands are also unlikely.
You can refine your opponents range on each street and after he calls the turn lead it is weighted towards the upper end [sets and AK]. I'm pretty nitty but I'd be in pot control mode by the river. Check/call or possibly check fold if villain overbet shoves.
Last edited by SharkytheFish; 08-05-2017 at 07:54 PM.
Reason: typo