Just recently got thrown to this table, so no stats/reads/image to speak of. No particularly aggressive or loose plays for either me or villain, that's about it.
Preflop: Hero is SB with A J
5 folds, BTN calls 6,000, Hero raises to 18,000, BB folds, BTN calls 12,000
Flop: (46,800) 7 T K (2 players)
Hero bets 23,400,
(and immediately kicks himself for not betting more.
The point is to throw weak pairs and straight draws - my main concern here - out of the hand, and a 1/2 pot bet just isn's gonna do it. Should've been a pot-sized bet, which would be almost half my stack, so gets upgraded to a shove right away).
...BTN calls 23,400
Turn: (93,600) 5 (2 players)
(looks like a blank for both of us. Now I either give up or shove second barrel. Draws, 7x,Tx and weak kings should fold; KT-KQ, T7
and 77 probably not, but could get scared of my TT/KK (unlikely yeah). Two pair+ would sometimes be reraising flop, so not as probable. Plus I still have 8% to hit my gutshot and win anyway.
Hero bets 93,136 and is all-in, BTN calls 93,136
River: (279,872) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Spoiler:
Results: 279,872 pot
Final Board: 7 T K 5 8
Hero showed A J and lost (-135,136 net)
BTN showed 9 J and won 279,872 (144,736 net)
My questions are:
1) Do you agree that if I'm betting flop at all here, it should be a shove?
2) What do you think of the second barrel on the turn?
3) Any ideas on the reasoning of my opponent when he called turn?
And yeah, I know the answers change depending on what I know about the opponent. Unfortuately, all I knew was that he got to a late stage of the tournament with a big stack, so should be at least decent.
OOP I'm probably just checking the flop, and hoping for a check back. Doubt you're getting him to lay down Kx here.
And honestly, pre I'm not sure how often button is open-limp folding to your 3x. Prob not often as he's got a relatively sizable stack and he has the positional advantage. If he raised pre however, I'd be inclined to jam because my range crushes his.
Edit:
To be clear, pre I'd like a check with AJ in the BB vs button limp, I don't think the 3x accomplishes much vs his stack. If you wanna get crazy you could shove it, his calling range is almost nonexistent unless he's getting sneaky limping button with a premium. Otherwise, I'd like a check. Once that flop comes, maybe 1/3-1/2 pot bet, or a check call if his bet is reasonable enough.
AP I think you just played too big of a pot oop with a hand that isn't really that great. Get it in pre, or play a small pot post. Otherwise find a better spot.
I think you can use anything up to pot-sized on the flop, as it's good for your range. Even a small bet can work well, since you'd want to get a little bit of value with your Kx/AA or better. Your Broadway draws are the natural balancers for your value-bets. Turn can be a check or a jam.
Villain is clearly a whale. He probably feels "committed" with his gutshot after he calls on the flop. He should probably be committed to an asylum instead of the pot.