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AJ on the Button, 2/4NL AJ on the Button, 2/4NL

08-12-2014 , 08:08 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tavemCEyeA

If I'm getting 2.57:1 on my money which is 28% does that mean I need at least 28% equity in the pot? I need to win 1 out of 3 times?
AJ on the Button, 2/4NL Quote
08-12-2014 , 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tavemCEyeA

If I'm getting 2.57:1 on my money which is 28% does that mean I need at least 28% equity in the pot? I need to win 1 out of 3 times?
You need to win 100 out of 357 times.
AJ on the Button, 2/4NL Quote
08-12-2014 , 10:33 AM
Ok so 1:1.357.

I give him a pretty tight range of this:

QQ+,99,66,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,J9s+,A9o+,KQo

and it comes out me being a slight favorite with 55%.

Does this make it a call?
AJ on the Button, 2/4NL Quote
08-12-2014 , 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tavemCEyeA

If I'm getting 2.57:1 on my money which is 28% does that mean I need at least 28% equity in the pot? I need to win 1 out of 3 times?
Think of it this way, 2.57 is how many times you can lose and still break even if you win the next time. So when you see odds of :

3.5:1 It means LOSE 3.5 Time = Win 1

Add them together: 4.5 - so out of 4.5 if you just win 1 you are good, 1 out of (out of means divide) 4.5 >>>> 1/4.5 so .22%

If it was 2.6:1 add them up: 3.6 - win one out of 3.6 or 1/3.6 which is around 30%.
AJ on the Button, 2/4NL Quote
08-12-2014 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by arjunt1
Think of it this way, 2.57 is how many times you can lose and still break even if you win the next time. So when you see odds of :

3.5:1 It means LOSE 3.5 Time = Win 1

Add them together: 4.5 - so out of 4.5 if you just win 1 you are good, 1 out of (out of means divide) 4.5 >>>> 1/4.5 so .22%

If it was 2.6:1 add them up: 3.6 - win one out of 3.6 or 1/3.6 which is around 30%.
+1

If you have 55% equity then to get the odds to make a break even call reverse the above process:

100 - 55 = 45

55:45 = 11:9 = 11/9:1 = ~1.22:1

Check:
1+1.22 = 2.22
1.22/2.22 = .5495
Convert to percent .5495*100 = 54.95% (off due to rounding of 11/9).

Keep in mind anything above the odds you need to break even is +EV so if your equity is 55% and the odds you're being laid are greater than 1.22:1 then you should at least call.
AJ on the Button, 2/4NL Quote
08-12-2014 , 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar8
and it comes out me being a slight favorite with 55%. Does this make it a call?
If you ever have more than 50% equity, you're a favourite to win the hand. You should put as much money in the pot as possible, since you'll be printing money by doing so.
Having 55% equity is like playing heads or tails with a weighted coin. I'd bet as much as I could afford to lose with an edge like that.
AJ on the Button, 2/4NL Quote
08-12-2014 , 06:14 PM
AJo is like never a flat to a 4bet here pre-flop which is the one massive problem I have with this hand.

I think you see why on the flop. You've given up the lead pre-flop and you're either way ahead or way behind on the flop and don't know where you're at so you decide to just call off for your whole stack, which is definitely sub-optimal play in the long run here. By giving up the lead too you can like never rep AK in this spot and obviously that's the hand you're afraid of which is why you're just calling $111.50 when its a $265 pot so when you call here your range is completely capped and it's always going to get in on the turn, whether as a bluff or for vale. So you're basically committing your whole stack in a spot where you have no idea if your hand is good or not which is never good poker.

If you're going to end up just calling off for your whole stack on this flop, then you should be 5-betting AJ here pre-flop especially if QTs is in his 4bet bluffing range. I like a 5bet clickback given stack sizes. It looks like a raise to induce so it's getting all the folds you want from a 5bet shove without having to shove.

If he flats your 5bet he is only going to have a pot-sized bet on the flop and you can just jam it and possibly get better hands to fold. You'll also end up getting more value from a big chunk of his 4bet/calling range, namely 77-TT, than you would by flatting a 4bet here because that range of pocket pairs is likely not leading/donking out on an AK high board here when out of position AND is likely to check it to you on all numbers boards which will let you peel for free and catch up.

With AJ/AQ you never want to be in a spot where OOP can feel like they can bet into you on an ace high board, which is what happened here.

Ultimately when you're gonna play AJ hardball style it comes down to villain dependent play. Against a lot of villains, I'm fine with 3bet folding AJ, and 3bet folding AJ is probably my standard play in live poker. Obviously against this villain, and especially if you have hand history with him, this is a 5bet all day. But you can generally never flat with this hand unless you're small balling it and just flatting an open raise in position to value town on later streets. I really hate the 3bet flat line and I abhor the flat on the flop given stack to pot ratios.
AJ on the Button, 2/4NL Quote
08-14-2014 , 03:58 PM
In retrospect it looks like a 5 bet is definitely a better line to take but I did have history with this opponent and felt really comfortable playing this hand in position. I guess knowing an opponent raises often and having a hand like AJ which I feel like is above the range of hands villain is raising means I should 5 bet and not let him catch up with worse hands. I don't mind playing it in position though knowing villain will cbet almost every flop so when I hit the A I can feel pretty confident I have the best hand. I agree that it is difficult to know where you are at just flatting there with AJ on that board against a random opponent but on this hand I feel really good with that flop. I called the cbet looking for a safe turn card and didn't mind getting stacks in when the 9 hit the turn. I think as played it's great to get stacks in on the turn with villain drawing to 3 outs.
AJ on the Button, 2/4NL Quote

      
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