70k hands BE stretch? How bad am I? - Beginning Poker Questions

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70k hands BE stretch? How bad am I?

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10-22-2014 , 09:35 AM

bYdaddo

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 362

So I picked up poker 2 months ago after being away for 1 year. I've been playing NL5 and then moved up to NL10 (I'm being staked by friend's friend who plays NL1k).

My graph is so saddening. I know that 70k stretches are normal for MS/HS, but I'm playing NL10, I think I should at least win around 3bb/100, while I am sitting at a whopping 0.10bb/100. So I think that, apart from variance, this is due my play because I am bad.
I wanted to post here to listen to better players' opinions. I can post stats if anybody will be interested.

My graph:

What can I do?

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10-22-2014 , 09:47 AM

Frozen_Starlight

adept

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 742

As reference I have had 2x 15k hands break even stretches playing cheeseburger stakes winning at about 20bb/100. I think you should post stats as you probably shouldn't have such a long BE stretch.

Edit: In about 100k hand sample

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10-22-2014 , 10:10 AM

bYdaddo

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 362

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10-22-2014 , 11:30 AM

ambientsilence

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 391

I think your problem is in aiming for 3bb/100. That's too low for 10NL, even for zoom. Your results are actually barely compatible with 3bb/100. Your best bet is to ask your friend to look at one of your sessions while you explain your thought process. They should be able to give much better advice than we could based on some basic stats.

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10-22-2014 , 11:48 AM

John Matrix

banned

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 45

your 3bet is kind of low, as is your went to showdown.
Do you think that maybe you're just getting bluffed/semi bluffed / walked all over a bit too much?
Thats also a relatively low cbet. Maybe you're playing a little TOO straight forwardly/cautiously/passive

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10-22-2014 , 01:21 PM

Big_Mick00

Verified Coach MTT

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 8,688

Even though it is 10nl results are relative to skill level.

70k hand breakeven is the same for a 1k reg and a 10nl reg.

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10-22-2014 , 01:26 PM

Frozen_Starlight

adept

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 742

Well no one is going to be crushing nl1k for 10bb/100 but it's very possible at 10nl and with that winrate variance should be lower since you have such an edge.

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10-22-2014 , 01:50 PM

Fatboy54

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 3,876

Quote:

your 3bet is kind of low, as is your went to showdown

WTSD is bang on the money. Stats are tightish, but I doubt that is it.

Table selection more likely the issue. Made me feel good though. Last time I looked I was +1.47 bb/100 over 93K at 10nl 6 max 2 years ago (don't play it anymore).

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10-22-2014 , 02:33 PM

Troy_AF

adept

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 733

If you think you should be winning at around 3bb/100 then a 70k break even stretch is pretty normal actually. Ive had one playing a mix of nl2,nl5, nl10 and I winning pretty good at all those levels over bigger samples.

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10-22-2014 , 02:45 PM

#10

bYdaddo

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 362

Thanks guys. Maybe I missphrased about the 3bb thing: I wanted to mean at least 3bb. As for other stats I know they're maybe on the low side, exp cbets, but I am aiming to fix my leaks i.e. balancing all of them, even tho maybe 60/60/60 for example would be better. Any other advice? I want and feel able to crush nl10 and so on.

Sent from my HTC One SV using 2+2 Forums

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10-22-2014 , 03:30 PM

#11

ArtySmokes

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,999

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fatboy54

WTSD is bang on the money.

In 2012, maybe.

I think OP is playing too ABC/fit or fold, as evinced by the stupidly high AF number of 3.0.
The straightforward "Blackrain style" might work for 2NL. It's not so great at 10NL.

OP's gotta learn to pot-control and get to more showdowns with the best hand imo.

I'd like to see the numbers for River Call Efficiency and WWSF rating, but I think OP's main problem might be that he's not giving opponents a chance to bluff. I know I keep saying this, but there's a lot of money in bluff-catching.

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10-22-2014 , 03:59 PM

#12

bYdaddo

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 362

River Call Efficiency 1.75
W$WSF 41.7

So basically do you all think I play way too ABC? I thought this was good at micros? Maybe you're right, I find myself folding river many times and not bluffcatching enough, I just think to myself "He has it".

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10-22-2014 , 04:03 PM

#13

Frozen_Starlight

adept

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 742

Quote:

Originally Posted by bYdaddo

There is no way that your problem is not bluffcatching enough lols. Unless you fold like all flops where you have an overcard to you pair or something silly like that.

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10-22-2014 , 04:12 PM

#14

bYdaddo

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 362

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frozen_Starlight

There is no way that your problem is not bluffcatching enough lols. Unless you fold like all flops where you have an overcard to you pair or something silly like that.

I don't really know how to read those 2 stats, are they high/good or not?

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10-22-2014 , 04:13 PM

#15

ArtySmokes

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,999

Quote:

Originally Posted by bYdaddo

Based on some of your other stats, villain probably DOES have it most of the time. But I'm finding that there's some value to be gained by not being so aggro on the flop and turn, so that villain still has some weak hands on the river.

Your RCE is actually very high, indicating that you're only calling when you're sure you're good. If you take slightly more passive lines, especially when OOP, villains will bluff more often, so you can call their river bets more often, and make money doing so.
It sounds counter-intuitive, but a lower RCE number (like 1.3) would usually mean you have an even better blue-line, since you won't be folding the best hand so often.

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10-22-2014 , 04:26 PM

#16

bYdaddo

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 362

So what I understood (point out things I missed) is that: play more aggressively, sometimes I don't really have to wait for my top range in order to call, stop being so weak?

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10-22-2014 , 06:00 PM

#17

John Matrix

banned

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 45

at 5/10 i run into SO many players who float 100% of the time and bet when checked to like clockwork, check-raise every Jxx/Qxx/Kxx board etc. Once i peg them i start doing stuff like this:

Winning Poker Network - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 82 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 227.4 BB
SB: 105 BB
BB: 51.8 BB
UTG: 132.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 2

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 4

Hero bets 4.8 BB, BTN calls 4.8 BB

Turn: (17 BB, 2 players) 7

Hero checks, BTN bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (37 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero checks, BTN bets 29 BB, Hero calls 29 BB

Hero shows 2

(One Pair, Twos) (Pre 50%, Flop 70%, Turn 86%)
BTN shows T

(High Card, King) (Pre 50%, Flop 30%, Turn 14%)
Hero wins 90.4 BB

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10-22-2014 , 06:24 PM

#18

Bertz

adept

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 846

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Matrix

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 4

Hero bets 4.8 BB, BTN calls 4.8 BB

Turn: (17 BB, 2 players) 7

Hero checks, BTN bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (37 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero checks, BTN bets 29 BB, Hero calls 29 BB

Hero shows 2

(One Pair, Twos) (Pre 50%, Flop 70%, Turn 86%)
BTN shows T

(High Card, King) (Pre 50%, Flop 30%, Turn 14%)
Hero wins 90.4 BB

Cant say i would take the same line even with reads.

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10-22-2014 , 06:38 PM

#19

John Matrix

banned

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bertz

Cant say i would take the same line even with reads.

it was probably a little thin

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10-23-2014 , 02:23 AM

#20

Frozen_Starlight

adept

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 742

Doing that with 22 is suicide most of the time.

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10-23-2014 , 03:35 AM

#21

juggle5344

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 548

Well, if you are up at all you aren't that bad.

I think people underestimate sometimes how much the rake makes it difficult to win money.

I realize some people can consistenly make good money at this game but it's difficult.

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10-24-2014 , 11:00 PM

#22

Donkey111

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 636

Your red line is at -12bb/100. It's high and indicative of a tight fit or fold style but not so extreme yet that it isn't possible to win.

I am noticing you are from Italy. How much do you pay in rake in bb/100?

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10-25-2014 , 12:05 AM

#23

dfinch

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 267

How has no one pointed out the biggest, most glaring leak... OPs blind play. You have managed to lose 847.xx dollars from the blinds. Playing 10nl... Just think about that for a sec.

Your PFR stat is second highest in the SB. VPIP is, again, second highest in the SB, third in the BB.

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10-25-2014 , 01:38 AM

#24

BornToRun

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,257

Quote:

Originally Posted by dfinch

lol his blind win-rates and stats are actually pretty good.

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10-25-2014 , 04:46 AM

#25

dfinch

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 267

Quote:

Originally Posted by BornToRun

lol his blind win-rates and stats are actually pretty good.

Playing 20/13 in the BB is good? Not sure if serious... Seems way too loose.

Edit: I play FR, maybe you (and OP) play 6max?

Last edited by dfinch; 10-25-2014 at 05:02 AM.

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