Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Beer
I'm not sure about this line zumby, could you please elaborate? Do you mean if we get villain to fold QQ/AK against our QQ/AK then our shove becomes EV?
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Let's say we open AK/QQ and face a 3bet. our assumptions are:
- Villain will 5bet AI with AK,QQ+ (2.6% of hands)
- We have around 40% equity vs this range
- Our EV when we get it in is around -17bb (cba writing out the working, this is why i made a spreadsheet)
- When villain folds we win his 3bet and whatever blinds are lying around
So we need villain to 3bet and fold to our 4bet often enough that those 12bb or so make up for our loss when we get it in. This might happen because he 3bet bluffs, or because he 3bets hands like KQs, or TT that he folds to a 4bet.
If villain 3bets
4% = -6.2bb EV
5% = -2.1bb EV
6% = 0.6bb EV
7% = 2.5bb EV
8% = 3.9bb EV
From this we see it's +EV to 4bet-call with these hands at anything over 5% 3bet. BUT! If we just fold AK/QQ to a 3bet we are losing 3bb anyway, so 4bet-calling against a 5% 3bet range still does better than folding to the 3bet. Arguably, we can do better by flatting the 3bet, but that's hard to calculate and is going to depend a lot on our skill and villains tendencies in 3bet pots.
Hope that makes sense, it's late here and I'm tired.