25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb? - Beginning Poker Questions

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Beginners and General Questions

25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

Post Reply Subscribe

...

08-12-2017 , 03:11 PM

SharkytheFish

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,114

Is there anything I should do differently here.

Villain 75 hands: 43/33/2.2/14.7

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

CO: $7.46 (29.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $25.97 (103.9 bb)
SB: $56.89 (227.6 bb)
BB: $53.89 (215.6 bb)
MP: $26.10 (104.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.75) 3

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.25) 8

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.65, SB raises to $7.95, Hero calls $5.30

River: ($20.15) 7

(2 players)
SB bets $16.25, Hero folds

Quote

08-12-2017 , 04:11 PM

Fatboy54

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 3,876

Villain 43/33

I am never folding.

Quote

08-12-2017 , 06:40 PM

WereBeer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,700

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fatboy54

Villain 43/33

I am never folding.

Agree. K8/K3ss forms part of villain's range IMO.

Quote

08-13-2017 , 01:49 AM

Ray Zee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,920

if you are going to fold it should have been on the turn.
however your hand actually got better with the board pairing.

Quote

08-13-2017 , 05:09 AM

SharkytheFish

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,114

Thanks, I'm satisfied I mis played it. Villain isn't repping much that beats me and can easily overplay K8/K3 on this board.

Quote

08-13-2017 , 01:20 PM

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

Only eight combos of value hands make any sense (77, 88, 87s, 33), but villains with stats like that are prone to overplaying top pair, especially if they have a draw to go with it. Turn check-raises are usually monsters, but I wouldn't be too surprised if villain is getting out of line with hands like KJcc/KTcc/K9cc, or K8s or even K3s, or indeed any king. It's pretty close, but I would call.

Quote

08-13-2017 , 04:49 PM

Ray Zee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,920

yes too many hands he can have you beat. he also plays any king suited and maybe any king at all. who knows. and would he riase here with a big king. possibly so.

some hands you are just blind in and trying to pin some opponents down doesnt work. so you have to look at your hand and decide to go for it or not.

Quote

08-13-2017 , 04:51 PM

Ray Zee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,920

but with him to your left i would have opened much larger and over bet the pot on each street so i was closer to all in on the end or all in on the end.

against players that can have almost anything i dont want smaller pots where they can run me off later on when i have the best hand and they are bluffing or think they have the best hand and dont. especially with one pair hands that are best early on for sure.

Quote

08-13-2017 , 05:06 PM

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

The problem with this is that we don't know how he plays hands postflop. He could be doing this with only sets or only with bluffs or anything in between. Looking at how many hands you should be value betting against him (any king basically and perhaps some stupid 8x you managed to bet flop with) AA is pretty high up there. Don't know exactly but with the odds you're getting I don't think AA is close to the hand you can start to fold without reads. KQ, although basically the same hand in value, is way closer because you block hands he can overplay for value like KJ/KT.

Quote

08-13-2017 , 05:41 PM

#10

Fatboy54

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 3,876

With 75 hands we don't know what sort of fish villain is, but we do know villain is (very probably) a fish and fish make mistakes postflop. Typically...

They over value and over play top pair.
They turn good sd into bluffs.
They tilt/misread the river in big pots.

All three are in play in this hand.

so...

Quote:

I don't think AA is close to the hand you can start to fold without reads

this

Quote

08-13-2017 , 05:51 PM

#11

SharkytheFish

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,114

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray Zee

I find this interesting but it seems like a questionable strategy. Surely you should be sizing bets primarily for value or to fold out better. If villain makes a bet on a later street that you feel may be a bluff then you can make a decision as to whether or not to call at that stage. What you'r suggesting is tantamount to betting more to avoid being outplayed on a later street.
Sometimes I do overbet the pot hu with an overpair but it has to be against a specific opponent type and on a certain board texture.

Quote

08-13-2017 , 06:06 PM

#12

SharkytheFish

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,114

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray Zee

Quote

08-13-2017 , 06:40 PM

#13

Ray Zee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,920

it is against a specific type of opponent.... and you get outplayed not by him but by yourself as you cannot make the best decisions when his range is infinite.
if he has anything decent he is going for it all. so why mess around and give him great odds to hit something with a hand he wont lose anything with. that is good for all opponents in many cases you dont have a read on.

he is 100 bb deep here so is around the point where he is likely to lose more than he can win if he plays slowly and gets out drawn.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...