had a friend tell me once that he had slots figured out...LOL

he wasnt referring to video poker

He could be counting cards without wanting to draw attention to himself by telling you he's counting cards, or he could be hole-carding (viewing the dealer's hole card.) But if it's as you described, it's very possible he's just on a lucky winning streak--the house edge at blackjack with proper basic strategy is fairly low. Even with fairly crappy rules like only double on 9-11, no double after split, dealer hits soft 17, the house edge is only 0.9%, so it isn't that unusual to have a big lucky run.

From your description of his last trip, it sounds like he uses some sort of martingale system, as he had a net loss for his first three sessions, then on his third tripled his money and let it all ride on one hand. Many martingale systems are designed such that they provide winning sessions much more often losing ones, but the losses in the losing sessions are so large that they erase all of the previous profits and then some. From your description, his last big winning trip was entirely dependent on one big hand and he won 150 for the trip because that big hand was a blackjack, but had it lost he'd have lost 50k, possibly more if a losing double or split was involved.

That's just nonsensical. If I divide his buy-ins/winnings by 100 then that means he ran $40 into $10,000 over three or four years which is still impressive (but he's not remodeling his house with $10k).

Whatever. KingMedicine and Sheetwise, that is a cool thread. I especially enjoyed Sklansky's apoplectic arrival and indignation. But to be honest I can see where he is coming from and it's the kind of idea I wold normally have been able to dismiss easily until I observed him for a while.

To those saying that he is a degenerate and will lose in the long run... well you may be right, but at least recognize that this would be difficult at this point. His winnings are over $1 million (I don't think his bankroll is much less although he doesn't really keep track of that very well) and his buy-in has only increased from $20k - $30k and he tends to bet about the same amounts regardless.

Given that, he would have to lose about 50 buyins before going bust-o. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it doesn't sound probable.

He usually doesn't bet more than 5,000 on a hand- although I have seen him go higher than that a couple of times, but I don't think it's Martingale in the traditional sense at all. I am also about 100% certain that he isn't varying his betsize according to some precise mathematical calculation. It definitely seems to be from the gut.

As for the last hand, if he had lost: he would have been about break-even for the whole trip (maybe like $5k over). If he won- obviously he would be swimming in it. I still don't think it was a prudent gamble, but then- he's made more money at the Casinos than I could ever imagine.

He'll lose 10 buy-ins and say/think something like "wtf is this, I don't lose" and double or triple his buy in, lose 10 more and not know what hit him, then lose his house.

I mean I hope he doesn't I just know very few people who gamble, can't really tell you why they win, continue gambling for a significant amount of time, and don't find their way to the gutter. He's very likely taking the worst of it at a game. He's playing that game for high stakes. It just doesn't end well.

I hope he breaks the bank too, well that or walks away. I think betting that he's either not playing or not winning high stakes blackjack three years from now is likely a terrific bet though.

Just like someone has terrible luck and gets a 1 / 1 million rare form of brain cancer, someone can get super luck and go on a long winning streak at BJ or hit the mega millions.

Gl but the way he betting is dangerous. Take the wins and run (which he wont do by the sounds of it

There are definitely people who have a skill set and use a skill set sometimes without even knowing they are using that skill set. In this case your friend could be using his "intuition" which is basically his loose form of card counting, and he may not even be aware he is doing that which certainly helps when it comes to hiding what one is doing from the casino.

Other very likely possibility is that we will hear a different story in due time and he may already be living a life that is more than it appears.

For now I am going to pass on the psychic angle (though innate intuition can often be confused as such).

Tell him to buy a nice house and stop betting $100k on one hand

Well, I'll drop an update here every few months or so and let you know if he goes bust-o. We're hitting up Vegas again in a few weeks for a bachelor party and I'll let you know how he does. If there is anything specific any BJ players want me to ask him post it here or PM me and I'll update the thread.

Don't ask him anything about anything other than his winnings. Do not discuss the games -- just make a record of what you know.

That should be easy, seeing as how I know next to nothing about Blackjack already!

It's either martingale or cheating. Get your friend to stop playing blackjack as quickly as you can or else he's going to lose it all.

I'm interested to know if he'd play the 100K bet basic strategy no matter how many splits/doubles. Think how quickly his million dollar year could have gone mostly down the toilet on just one "cooler" type hand at that stake.

Which casinos in Vegas will let you bet 100K a hand in blackjack? According to Steve Cyr, the cap is $25K. Are you sure he didn't throw it down on a $100K hand of baccarat?

I'd question everything in this story. Gamblers tend to embellish wins and downplay losses.