4 nights free at Caesar's Palace and Aria, floor seats to the Cotto/Mayorga fight, and free meals for my girlfriend and I, all courtesy of her cousin's husband who is a high stakes Blackjack player and has made almost $1 million this year alone.

I only play poker and hanging out with him is dangerous because I see him win sick amounts of money and he is always trying to get me to stop playing Hold'em and move over to Blackjack.

I wanted to talk with experienced Blackjack players here to see what you think about his style. Here is the deal:

He doesn't count cards
He studied/mastered all the basic strategy, but doesn't like to count. He said he thinks it would be obvious if he tried to do it and he would get banned. I was surprised to hear this because I didn't think it would be possible for him to win without counting for so long (I think he has been playing for three years now).

He says he plays by "feel"
When he told me this I kind of groaned as it sounded like the ridiculous thinking that would cost someone money in the long run. But I guess after playing for so long he feels that he has a good idea for when the deck is hot. Maybe he is subconsciously counting, I don't know.

He is entirely indifferent to risk
Even if he goes on a sick downswing it doesn't bother him. He'll keep on betting, sometimes betting the minimum, but also sometimes making huge bets with the last of his chips. I can't even handle watching him play because the swongs are just so intense.

Money Details
His bankroll jumped up on one night when he ran $4,000 up to $20,000... and then ran that $20,000 up to $90,000.

Since then he buys in with either $20,000 or $30,000. He mostly plays with $500 dollar chips. His typical betsize is around $1500 to $2000. I almost wonder if he does a type of martingale thing because it seems to me that if he loses a few hands in a row he will come out with a big bet to absorb those losses (sometimes if he loses that big bet he will make an equal size or even bigger bet).

I have seen him have both losing sessions and winning sessions. Typically a winning session will involve him winning 2, 3, or even 4 times his buy-in. His losing session will usually involve him losing like 7/10ths or all of his money.

This last trip he ran $30k up to $65k at Aria, lost $30-$40k at Caesars (he was in a real bad mood after that session), and lost $20k after returning to Aria.

The last night at Caesars then he ran $30k up to over $100k. He had made enough money that he decided he could leave either up a little, or a lot. So he decided to let it ride and put $100k on the table and hit blackjack. A $250k payout!

He has obviously had amazing success, and I don't question his skill at the table any more. If he keeps playing the same stakes he is at he will be bankrolled for playing a very long, long time. But I wanted to get feedback from other Blackjack players: is this guy just on a really sick, sick heater, or do you think people can be winning players without counting?

Some people are just more in tune with their intuition. Just because the scientists haven't proven that psychic people exist in a controlled lab, doesn't mean there isn't anything else in the ether.

Example, almost no animals were killed in the Tsunami a few years ago. The dogs just started walking away, likely without knowing how or why they knew to leave.

Wouldn't be the first or last guy to run up a fortune while taking the worst of it. Probably won't be the first or last guy to squander said fortune while continuing to take the worst of it.

In regards to your last question yes I do. He could be psychic. He could as you say be subconsciously counting/just have an amazing "feel" for the right plays. There are some other explanations like he could be cheating. More likely he's just ran good and been willing to put out the big money over what is relatively speaking still a very small sample. Also, I agree parts of the story do sound like martingaling which increases his chance of coming up winner but also always sets up the big crash if he keeps playing.

Read about guys like Archie Karras. The chance that your friend is a blackjack savant is far less than the chance that he's a poor man's Archie Karras story waiting to happen (and that's at least somewhat disrespecting Karras but on the house edge gambling games angle of it at least i think it works).

its all math

if he aint counting he will lose long run

he probably just running hot right now

Not sure if this is a level, but regarding the Tsunami reference I am sure there were lots of subtle (to humans) changes in the environment that would have cued in animals that count on their instincts to survive everyday.

Yes. Because the casino's edge is quite small, people can go on long, long winning streaks at BJ. They always give it all back unless they quit or have more money than the house.

He probably wont listen to you. Hes got the system "mastered." Just like Archie Karas and every other gambler who made millions and gave it all back had it "mastered."

If hes only been playing 3 years hes even more liable to give it all back, at least old gamblers learn how to hold on to big scores after going broke so many times.

It's not a long enough trial to know, it's just a few sessions -- happens all the time. But I do know a couple players who have been doing this for many years, and I can't make any sense out of it.

OP, it's a long thread, but a good one if you really want to get into why this might be happening, if it is really happening for a real sample size.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/31...s/luck-313792/

Thanks for that KingMedicine -- I often forget that thread is there. It's not a side of myself I present very often, but I don't back away from it at all -- life is a mystery, and it's not all numbers ...

Translate his wins from $500 chips to $5 chips and it's really not very impressive. Just a little variance, a little luck. He'll lose it all back... degenerates always do.

Enjoy the comps while they last, your buddy's sure to bust his life roll at some point.

People who play without an edge and believe they're winners are unlikely to even know basic strategy perfectly (which wouldn't make them winners anyway), and they're not likely to be tracking their wins and losses accurately.

The casino sure as hell wouldn't comp him everything if he was a million dollar winner. ****, just try to get a buffet comp while an overall winner and see.

Casinos comp overall winners all the time. They probably comp them more so long as they're a winner based on luck not skill. Do you think they kick people who hit jackpots out or set them up with a room?

In regards to the other post about the run not being impressive it certainly is impressive and not common. It's just not unbelievable and certainly not evidence that he's extremely unlikely to be taking the worst of it. It's an impressive run though no matter what the unit size if a random at a $5 table runs it up to 50K it's not yawn worthy.

Since he "mostly plays with $500 chips", that would translate into some red chipping ploppy winning $2000. A little positive variance, yes, but nothing really noteworthy, especially if he is the type to randomly spew out monster bets.

Convince him to buy a medium to long term secured bond for a sizeable amount of money. At least then he'll have a decent return and something to show for his good luck down the line. Of course, his attitude towards gambling/betting patterns makes him one of the last people that would invest in bonds.

2K divided by 5 is 400.
1 million divided by 500 is 2000.

Jamie Gold probably got luckier when he won the ME but it's significantly more than a little standard positive variance. Plenty of degens play black chip house games their whole lives and never see a million dollar uptick. This guy is apparently fairly young and has made a habit out of it for the last three years. He's running in God mode not winning a few more than his fair share of flips.