I searched and couldn't find anything.

So I think I realize why the last 2 times I played BJ at casino, the dealer wrecked me when I bet high. I use the hi lo system, and I've gotten pretty good at counting, that is, the "RUNNING" count. I didn't even know about the true count, which applies to the 6-8 deck games I've been playing.

From what I've read, you determine the true count using how many decks remain. To do that, you have to pay attention to discarded cards. My question, well, assuming if a half deck is 26 cards, can't you just count exactly the cards being pulled to determine each time a half deck is used? Because I'm reading about a "conversion factor" having to do with the height of the discarded cards.

Also like, what is the criteria for when a half deck is used? Like....lets say 52 cards are pulled in a 6 deck shoe, that's two half decks, leaving 4 left. Let's say 13 are pulled from that 4th deck, is it still 4 decks remaining or 3?

Thanks.

It sounds like you're just starting. Try using an unbalanced count like Red 7s -- that doesn't require you to convert running count to true count.

I am. I bought 6 decks last night to practice with. I'd rather master the hi lo system. It even tells you when to deviate from basic strategy like standing on stiff 15/16 against dealer T and being favored to win by dealer busting. You need to have a true count value though.

When practicing a bit last night, correct me if this is wrong but, I thought the #of decks remaining remained pretty constant for a number of running counts. That number changes pretty slowly and stays the same in the meantime...is it also true to assume that the less decks remain the stronger the true count is? That is, you're more likely to see a 20 with 2 decks remaining with a running count of +4 than with 5 decks remaining?

According to the thing on my phone, I can count 1000 cards in 5 minutes with a 98% success rate. That's just running count though, the true count is a lot more important.

You can't keep track of both the count and the exact number of cards which have been dealt. Even doing so for a few rounds is very problematic, doing so for several shoes is impossible. Estimation is enough to suffice.

If 52 cards have been dealt out that is 5 decks remaining in a six deck shoe, or 10 half decks. Your divisor at this point would be five, so you would divide the running count by 5 to get to the true count.

If 65 cards have been dealt out of a 6 deck 312 card shoe then that is 1 and 1/4 dealt or 4 and 3/4 remaining. You can estimate to the nearest half deck, if you want, and just call it 1 deck. Or even 1 and a half. It really doesn't matter. Decisions in blackjack are fluid anyway. Even if you hit 13 vs 2 when you should be staying, or stay 12 vs 4 in a very slight negative count, it's practically the same thing. It's difficult to make catastrophic mistakes and being slightly off in your estimation is no big deal.

You will never be favoured to win with 15 or 16 vs T, which is a very bad situation, but you will lose less money by standing on 16 vs T in any positive count and 15 vs T in a high positive count than you would by hitting. Surrender is usually an even better option, although 15 vs T you would hit in any negative count as opposed to surrendering it, unless ES10 is available.

Hi, thanks for the information. Yeah for sure that's one of the worst spots to be in....but if the count is plus am I wrong in thinking rather crudely that the chances of tens being pulled are much higher, so if he ended up not auto winning with a 18 or higher, and has a 6 or lower on the down card, with a positive true count hes more likely to bust.

Am I also right in crudely thinking that the a negative count means the remaining deck is rich in small cards, which favor the dealer, and a positive count, true count that is, favors the player because the deck is rich in high cards. More chances for the dealer to bust, and the player to make a high hand?

Also, this is just half the battle. Even if I were able to do this correctly, and find myself winning chips while practicing, the next step is do it while being distracted, engaging in conversations, acting as casual as possible to avoid detection. I'll be playing in atlantic city and, from what ive read, they have the most lenient repercussions when discovering a counter.

It is in general best to simply avoid talking at the table, unless the pit boss engages you in conversation to which you must respond in a lively fashion, perhaps stopping to count all together, playing basic strategy for the rest of the shoe. You can also simply not count while you are talking to the boss, remember the count before and ignore the few rounds that happen during your convo. But yes your above thinking appears to be correct.

Another tip : in your head "plus 16" is simply "16" but minus 16 is 'm 16'.

Thank you dude. I'll study this when I get home from this mind numbing work that I've been doing all day, and will let you know if I have further questions, which I will lol. have a good day.

It is true, but it's a very small difference, of little practical significance. Note that, deeper in the deck, you are more likely to see extreme (high or low) true counts. This is why penetration (how deeply the shoe is dealt before shuffling) is very important to a counter. The deeper the better.

One of the key things you need to understand is that the true count only tells you that there is a surplus or deficit of high cards in the undealt cards. It tells you nothing of the distribution of those high cards. Sometimes they will mostly be under the cut card (count is still high when cut card comes out). Sometimes the dealer gets the 20's and blackjacks. Sometimes the other players get them while you get 17's amd 18's.These are some of many reasons that a high true count is not even close to a guaranteed win. It has simply changed the game so that you have a small edge, rather than the house having a small edge. On a bad day, you will lose most of your big bets. However, if you are playing in a good game (decent rules, good penetration), and you play correctly, you have a high probability of coming out ahead over the course of thousands of hands.

the so called 'floating point advantage'.

Damn, thanks for the additional info, that's a trip, and also explains why last time I played online I was in a positive count with deep penetration, got A9 and KK against 5 and 6 respectively , and lost to 21 both times lol. High bets too, haven't played since then.

As time progresses the less I have the idea you can make a consistent living playing cards. Although, when playing for fun, it doesn't hurt to know how to count maximizing any advantage you can get your hands on to win.

Variance is enormous. Let's say you aim for expected value $50 an hour, 4 hours per day. You manage to bet at an average player advantage of 0.5%, 100 hands per hour. Your average bet would need to be $100. I don't need to tell you how easy it is, betting at that level, to lose a thousand in a few minutes.

Variance is better visualized with statistics.

A typical bet spread will give you a standard deviation (SD) of 2.5-3.0 units per hand, and your expected value (EV) is 0.005.

One number you can calculate is n0 (n-zero), the number of hands you can go and still break even. The formula is n0 = (z*SD/EV)^2, where z is the z-score of the confidence you want. Typically, people use z = 2 (97% confidence).

Your n0 would be about 5 million hands. That is, you could play full time for a lifetime and still be a net loser solely due to luck.

Another number you can calculate is B, the largest downswing. B = (z*SD)^2/(4*WR), so the bankroll you need is something like 1,500 units (at $100 per unit, that's $150,000).

Most people who count on the income from blackjack will aim to reduce their SD and increase their EV so that these numbers are more reasonable.

z = 3 (if you count on the income z needs to be higher)
SD = 2.0
EV = 0.02
n0 = 91,000 (half a year of full time play!)
B = 450

Playing blackjack for money is a tough life.

There certainly is some degree of uncertainty in short term results that requires both a large bankroll and unique mental ability to handle the variance and swings.

My last two full years 2013 and 2014 is a perfect example. Blackjack play EV (70-75k) accounts for about 75% of my annual AP EV. In 2013 my actual BJ results were 115K and in 2014, only 27k (I actually played more and accumulated more EV in 2014). THAT is the nature of the beast.

But even with that, I wouldn't call it a 'tough' life. If you are doing this for a living as I am, it's not just a means for money, there is some passion involved. And anytime, you can make a living doing something you are passionate about, I think you are ahead of the game.

I'll reserve the 'tough life' comments for those folks stuck working there ass off doing something they hate for a living. I think that would be a tough life.

Dealer errors can be especially lucrative. You're already beating the game at 1 or 2 % and then every so often, whoopsie daisy, here's +500 instead of -500. The thing that concerns me about card counting is dealer cheating. A few quick moves and two days work is undone. But I guess if you self impose loss limits these very rare occasions will be no more than a minor hiccup.

I don't play for a living but amen to this post.

I meant the "tough life" in the sense that your income is variable - you hopefully had the sense to not go and live like you made 110k in 2013, and saved so that when you had years like 2014 you can still pay the rent.

People who are self-employed or contractors or entrepreneurs know this well. When you're like me and end up getting a paycheck direct deposited into a bank account, you can be a little lazy.

In general terms, I am opposed to 'stop loss limits' concerning blackjack card counting. I sometimes do have to deal with such because of the balancing act of limiting carrying certain amounts of funds for security reasons. But other than that, it's bad concept for card counting. The edge is too small and the really good counts and situations occur far too infrequently to have to walk away from a positive count situation. It's a huge drain on EV.

Now that said, you do want to be vigilant concerning cheating. For the most part cheating is very rare at the corporate type, state regulated casinos that make up the majority of my play, places like Las Vegas and Pennsylvania. There is just too much for these corporate run casinos too lose in terms of fines, licensing and probably worst of all reputation. A reputation of cheating is a devastating blow for a casino.

The types of places I worry about are places where there is little or no regulating like Indian casinos, foreign casinos and boats and ships that go out to sea in unregulated waters.

There is also reason to be 'cautious' even in regulated areas of smaller type out of the way casinos, such as some of the small towns and unbeaten paths in Nevada. In this environment you may find some left over 'rouge' type dealer cheating, not necessarily sponsored by the casino, so you always want to be careful of that.

It's funny, a few years ago, all the card counter AP's were big on traveling to the Indian casinos throughout the Midwest. It was all the rage. Favorable rules, great penetration. Problem is none of that matters if a few aces and tens are missing or the dealer is dealing seconds. And if you find yourself in that situation, you have little to no recourse.

I'll stick to places that are state regulated and have something to lose and where I have recourse options, even if conditions aren't quite as favorable.

There are a lot of advantages to a stop loss. Note that you don't have to quit mid shoe, yo can finish it out and just not start another one. Of course if you are already playing a 'hit and run' style the stop limit is not really important since you should be leaving after a very brief time anyway (you are already stopping even without the limit simply because you only play, for example, 60 rounds or whatever). There are some advantages and disadvantages to the hit n' run approach. I mean, if the going is really good, you want to stick around and grind it out, even at the expense of long term longevity. With a lightning fast dealer, who I trust (often attractive younger female, since I figure this to be the least likely category of person to spend an obsessive amount of time learning how to deal shady, I avoid middle aged men like the plague), a great cut, good rules, heads up table, why not just sit there and blast until at least the next dealer change? You'd be amazed at how many +4 situations you can get to in an hour with the right conditions. I used to play in this 1 deck cut game with ES10, LSA, and I could play hundreds maybe even thousands of hours of action without getting backed off. Sometimes things are just working. If I play 9 hours in perfect conditions, how many months do you think it would take to achieve the same EV doing a hit and run approach on weakish games? I do think the problem of walking away from a high count is very over stated. So what? It's not like they're going to stop dealing blackjack any time soon. As poker players we learn that even if the game is good, sometimes we're just not up to the challenge. Maybe we're tired, or distracted, or tilted, or whatever. Or maybe the game isn't quite as good as it seems. Anyway I know I myself have too many nights thrown good money after bad.

Personally I don't place much faith in government regulators. I doubt the incompetent bureaucrats that oversee gaming care about much more than collecting their paycheques and not getting ****canned. The real threat isn't a 'casino' cheating but a dealer cheating. Maybe he just likes to exercise his trade. Or maybe he and the pitboss have been stealing tens of thousands to finance their drug addictions and they make up for it by fleecing high rollers. Or a million other things. I do not think cheating is common, by any means, I have never detected a cheat (I am often unreasonably suspicious and I do not see how that hurts me, although it does prevent me from getting in action a bit, but that's not a big problem) but I think it helps to be paranoid.

Yes, I live pretty modestly, well within my means. That's a lesson I learned early on.

But, my younger brother, towards the end of his first year of blackjack AP is currently going through that lesson. I tried to tell him early in the year when he started but he didn't listen. Kids...today! lol.

So he is playing low limit blackjack here in Vegas starting with a 10k BR. His EV for the amount and limits that he plays is very low, in the neighborhood of $800 to $1000 per month in EV. I tried to tell him that at this level he needed to spend as little as possible which would (hopefully) allow his bankroll to grow and allow for greater returns in the future.

He has almost zero real expenses (no rent), but that didn't stop him from spending too much. He started off the year with actual results significantly above expectation and he took that as a license to spend. He spent more than his EV and now in recent months when things have cooled off and his actual results have come down in line with expectation, he is actually below water, below the 10k he started with even though he has had a good year just slightly ahead of expectation.

I just sort of sat back and watched him learn this lesson, making sure he didn't get hurt too bad. But for someone with real living expenses, and an non-replenshible BR, this lesson could have been devastating.

so true.

Just wanted to give a shout out to my main man Omaha Fanatix. Reread your tipz on here man, heading there now. Wish me luck plz thnx

good luck bro!

Make sure you do not over bet your bankroll especially when you are starting out. You need minimum 300 max bets.